Topic: New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess. - page 6. (Read 8132 times)

Thank you for the feedback. I'm open to discussion and here is what I think about it.

If anything the rules should be simplified, not made more complicated. For example what happens with your example if someone says +0.79? Does that person not have a full "range" of +0.2% because 0.8-1.0 belongs to another person?

I don't think there is any "sniping" or any other kind of "outbidding" here like e.g. on eBay, since you don't know which way it will go. In other words if you think it's 9.15% - say 9.15%, don't say 8.65% to cover a range.

The 1% rule only kicks in if everybody is completely wrong (like last time), it's not a "margin of error", and it's not supposed to improve your chance of winning against other participants - it's the opposite actually because if the rule needed to be applied it means NOBODY wins. I think I'll try to reword the rules for the next cycle to state that the 1% is applied after all other rules and tiebreakers - it wouldn't change the outcome but perhaps would make it less confusing.

Anyway, the list so far - below. Let me know if I missed anything. Korbman - please change your number.

GermanGiant +3.00%
davejh +0.50%
Ume +6.00%
Kexkey +4.77%
philipma1957 -1.11%
adaseb +8.00%
SimplisticStu +4.55%
geforcelover +4.12%
wpt1wpt1 +3.45%
klondike_bar -4.25%
gallery2000 -20.00%  I think I know what you're doing here
galdur +5.28%
buyandhold +0.77%
Quickseller -4.80%
jermwerty +8.01%
edonkey waiting for the cat
Korbman needs to change the number (used +5.28% same as galdur)
armedmilitia +2.00%
quakefiend420 +8.41%
thriftshopping +8.52%
HerbPean +4.20%

+4.20%

No kidding !

the site below is the most accurate on day to day.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


feb   9th   164 blocks  norm is 144---------but part of these were last adjustment
feb 10th   132 blocks  norm is 144
feb  11th  159 blocks   norm is 144

Well on the price is right I understand that you only get one guess, there is generally more information available regarding the price and the "bidding" order is random.

I think it would be fair that any guess would have a 'guaranteed' spread/margin of something like 0.2% both above and below of your guess, so for example if you bid +1% then everything from +0.8 to +1.2 is considered taken (my guess is still +8.52%). I think this would encourage more early guessing and would give an advantage to early guessers who otherwise are at an advantage due to lack of data

Welcome to the price is right lol

That's a good point, it does make it a bit unfair, but the more people we have participating the more likely it is to have to happen, we only have so much reasonable range to work with.

Maybe we should change it from a 1% margin of error to something lower?

EDIT: here's another thought.  Maybe we should require a small buy-in to participate.  Winner take all.

Well since you want to snip my guess I would change my guess to 8.52+

I don't think however that this kind of snipping should be allowed

(+8.41%) is my guess right now.

I would guess +8.4%

The people behind ASIC miner previously announced they were able to create a concept miner with efficiency of much greater then is available now and the recent spike in hashrate could be an indicator that they have advanced to further stages of their research and have been able to produce actual miners and are running them

2%.

I have spoken, and so it shall be.

very early, but looks good for a drop.

the site below is the most accurate on day to day.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


feb   9th   164 blocks  norm is 144---------but part of these were last adjustment
feb 10th   132 blocks  norm is 144

It's a bit early to tell at this point (with 1790 blocks to go), but I'll guess: +5.28%

The rationale would be to start some kind of a conversation.

Every entry will be a guess, but ideally people will make some kind of an educated guess with some level of thought process behind it. I would hope that few people would only make an entry solely because there is a "spot" open at that level

Since every entry will effectively be a guess, what's the point of requiring a rationale?

I mean, sure it might be interesting to see what people are thinking. But in reality there's factors well outside of our knowledge or control that will drive the difficulty. There will be no one technique that will consistently allow us to predict what will happen.

I'm not quite ready to provide my guess yet. But when I do, I plan to ask my cat what he thinks the difficulty increase will be

8.01%

I would say the winner would be picked the same way (if that is what you want), but just make it a requirement that people submit at least 1-2 sentences with the rationale behind their guess (that are not judged).

The entries from last time and the entries so far this time around almost all have nothing more then a guess.

The problem is - how to judge it? Should there be a minimum word count and an IQ test attached to it?

I hope the discussion will naturally evolve as a result of getting more people interested in the process.

I would go for -4.8% this time around.

From the looks of it current price/difficulty levels are borderline profitable for a good chunk of older miners. It appears that, over the last ~month and a half or so that when the difficulty increased, it would no longer be profitable for some miners, so they take their miners offline at a quick enough pace that the difficulty fell by a good amount (~6% on Jan 27) then with the lower difficulty, mining would again be EV positive for mining so a good portion of the miners that were just taken offline were turned back on, which caused the ~7.7% jump yesterday. Manufacturers are still able to sell new miners, however the pace of sales is slower then "usual" because of the slumping price of bitcoin, so the net effect will be upward pressure on the difficulty, but just not as much as expected. This is somewhat corroborated by the sharp decline of 512 block rate seen immidiatly prior to the difficulty change that continued to fall somewhat after it changed.

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One think I would like to see as part of this contest is a requirement for people to write why they are making their guess. The explanation can be invalid, but just a few sentences as to their thought process. I would say such a requirement would inspire more meaningful conversation instead of people just posting to win a contest.

Guessing they couldn't ban mining that quickly and effectively, like within this diff period, even over there.

so +0.77% is my guess for now

thanks to suchmoon and philipma1957 for the oasis of calm yet sporting that is this thread

Besides, this is the speculation forum......

Prediction +5.28%