Topic: New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess. - page 7. (Read 8105 times)

It is too HOTTT to tell you.

ok where did you get this hot news?

New Prediction.  HOT HOT HOT

- 20%

on feb 10th all of the block will be this adjustment if it is 164 I will be a bit upset.

EDIT: increased in a future post...wowza

my prediction at the moment is going well

yeah could be true.

my early guess?

-4.25%

I think it will swing down int he next few days as high difficulty pushes more miners out again

I will guess +3.45%

My prediction is +4.12%

I love this thread and promo from suchmoon making it more exciting 

I shall guess +4.55% which like most will probably change nearer to the deadline.

I am pretty sure it will go up +8% or so.

See this post on last thread:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10347554





Quote from: seriouscoin on February 03, 2015, 11:34:45 AM
Oh HAI,

with your track recording, i'm not surprised at all at your " guesstimate"

In fact, my data shows, whenever philipma predict the difficulty, i will just bet the opposite.

I think you should jump start and predict the next difficulty 18 days from now.




thanks for the vote of confidence.

 okay (- 1.11%)  next jump which runs from feb 10 to feb 25 give or take a day or so.

  I don't mind the smackdown talk mr. seriousC as long as it is not full of crude curses.  



SO I MUST say   (-1.11%)   for this jump.

Thanks suchmoon and philipma!  Last diff change showed us we are a little too much optimistic, lol!  Hard to guess right now, but I'll go with +4.77%.  I'll probably change my guess as we get closer to Feb. 15 though...

Good luck all!

Umm my guess +6.00%

negative 10.01%


News came out that China will shut all bitcoin mining farms down .

There is a 0.1 BTC prize for the most accurate difficulty guess, no strings attached, just some basic rules - see below.

Nobody won the previous one due to the 1% rule, so the amount has been rolled over and we have a 0.2 BTC payout for this difficulty cycle.

Official deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 15th, 2015 extended to 04:00 (4 AM) UTC February 16th, 2015, roughly 40-50% into the cycle. I will accept entries made after the deadline as long as they are posted before I publish the final list of participants - to allow for a grace period in case bitcointalk.org is down.

A guess is a percentage with up to two decimal places (I'll round it if you put more than two) posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed for the bounty - just post like you would normally do, as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage.

To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change. The guess that is nearest to the actual change wins. If nobody is within 1 percentage point the bounty will roll over to the next cycle.

If you guess multiple times only the last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted, i.e. you can revise your bet until the deadline.

To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by bitcoinwisdom (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment.

Tiebreakers:
1) Your number must be unique. If you would like your guess to be considered for the bounty please review previous guesses and make sure your number is different from all others. I will try to warn if I see duplicates but if a duplicate slips through only the first member who posted that number will be eligible for the bounty.
2) If two winning guesses end up within the same distance of the actual difficulty change the first member who posted his/her guess wins.

To collect the bounty the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.

Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I should be able to do it much sooner than that.

Edit: A couple of rule changes from the previous thread - grace period in case bitcointalk.org is down, and an additional tiebreaker if the diff ends up in the middle of two guesses.

And here are the funds for the prize for this cycle plus a couple more: https://blockchain.info/address/1Nz1eoPMqBUSRwgQCS5fiocrZk4VDeG6wi

Edit2: spelling errors.

This time round I suspect we'll be much closer to 0.5% so I'll go with that for now 

I am guessing 3% hike...

  first suggestion  is  look at the sites  

see estimates.  realize that over the last 7 jumps  -6.14%  to + 8.20%  has been the range.

On Nov 18 2014 we were at 40.3    On Feb 09 2015 we are at 44.4  

   This comes to very close to 1.9% average