Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 36. (Read 83088 times)

Not yet, but they will own a significant amount of btc, you will see.

Are you joking?

Japanese banks don't own significant btc (unless you are referring to the mtgox bankruptcy?)

Trump loves banks.  And banks are never going to be replaced by crypto. That is correct, I who usually equivocate (eg. say "maybe") just took an extreme position. It won't happen in a million years.

Altcoin bubble ending is the only part that makes any sense.  And really that just sets us up for another alt-coin bubble in the future as people don't seem to be learning.  It looks like they might bubble until one (or more) succeeds.

It isnt.

This drives the upmovement:

Japanese banks will sell btc
Trump wants to get rid of his banks (crypto next solution)
Altcoin bubble ending

Cmon man how could you miss the massive bullish btc news?

It is possible that the inability to withdraw USD from Bitfinex could be partially causing the rally.  For one thing, it and the problems at Chinese exchanges should have everyone's technical indicators completely messed up.

ETF appears to have zero chance of happening this year.  Has perhaps a 10-20% chance of happening in the next three years.  Unless could someone create a non-US ETF (and one that avoids the SEC?).

Segwit is making very slow progress.

Bitcoin is unlikely to fork (though Bitcoin Unlimited is up to $250 at Bitfinex, up 25% on the day).

This continues to seem more like a rally than a bubble.

Bitfinex did go up 10% in the last 24 hours (from 1400 trough to the 1548 peak).  So it is getting a bit bubbly.

Looks like AntMiner patched the software so that is good.

This Ant Bleed front door / back door is significant. New Bitcoin CEO Jihan (really Antminer) wrote a backdoor into the miners they sell and can now shut down bitcoin miners with a flick of a switch (or several switches).  Meanwhile, ATH.

I'm lending at Bitfinex. I think the rates are great!  It's also tempting to sell them and buy more on Coinbase.  It looks like BFX wants to arrange a one-time method that lets you get fiat out by setting up a trust of the type that is used for legal settlements.  If this works, you'd have a one time arbitrage opportunity with a great return.  Though I have no idea if this is likely (does anyone know?).

For the longer run, they need to get a bank to accept their transfers.  I would expect this to be possible and take less than a month (as Bitfinex should be willing to spend $5 million on this project - or essentially whatever it takes up to the value of the company), but who knows.  Maybe they could get Putin to help with a Russian bank

I was tempted to bet 5 BTC against Le Pen (at 25-30% odds on Fairlay) before round 1, and probably should have done that.  Le Pen's odds of winning the french presidential election have been systematically over-estimated by bettors by a factor of 2-3.  Now that she is running against Macron the odds are down to 12% - so much less money.  I do have $850 against Le Pen on PredictIt (at 39% odds!).  I only did ok on the first round of the French election (on PredictIt) as I made a couple bad trades.

BFX is at 1440, Coinbase 1340, Chinese exchanges 1125.  Craziness everywhere.  Remember we're probably not really in full-on bubble mode until we start going up 10%/day.  LTC is in full bubble mode.

BTC swap rates at Bitfinex So juicy.

Are you lending, nrd525?

Great work man. Its a big mess indeed. About to escalate soon.

Bitfinex premium up to $80 over Coinbase.  Nice price surge to $1320 (only a bit short of the ATH 1336).  

The market is taking Bitfinex's troubles in stride - very bullish.  

Though I'm concerned that China is not keeping up.  At 7300 yuan, the Chinese markets are $150-$200 below the US ones.  Does China have currency controls designed to stop inflows? If not, it should be easy to bring money in, buy BTC, move the BTC out, sell the BTC and repeat.

Update: Chinese exchanges don't let you withdraw BTC. What a mess!

I think Bitfinex should convert all the USD into more shares!   

Bitfinex says you can have multiple accounts (you need ID and multiple emails).

Bitfinex premium over Coinbase is up to $65 - and they've canceled incoming wires.

Do any US banks accept incoming wires in non-US currency?  If so, I'd expect the Bitfinex premium to be much smaller.  I'm tempted to buy some BTC on Coinbase and sell them on Bitfinex...

Bitfinex is having trouble sending out USD wires.  As a result BTC has a $30 premium over Coinbase and $44 over Bitstamp.  I was thinking about wiring some money there to lend out swaps, but now it looks like using BTC to send it is much better.   Except that I'm using cost-averaging for my tax basis - so buying 5 BTC on Coinbase and then reselling them on Bitfinex would trigger $700-$800/capital gains per BTC, not $30.

I wish I could separate my bitcoins into two accounts, so they could have separate cost basis. I think you can do this if they are held in separate accounts, but if they are both held at Bitfinex then you cannot.  And I want to have there because the swap rates are currently decent (0.03%-0.05%/day).

Feeling pretty good. My cost basis for BTC is around 325.  Last year I made around 1.7 BTC in interest on Poloniex (but haven't been doing any lending there in 2017).  By contrast I only made 0.18 BTC on Bitfinex.

Downside is that I should have bought more (aka bitfinex shouldn't have got hacked).  Not feeling like buying it at $1200.

Also this is only somewhat related, but the Kelly Criteria is an interesting system for investing (or betting, but don't take bets unless you have favorable odds):

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

In general for bets/investments you want to figure out the Expected Value. I've been referring to this for some predictions markets with binary outcomes. Obviously it is more complex with BTC as there are near infinite outcomes. So you really have a payoff matrix and you need to also take into account your risk tolerance.

Litecoin bubble at $11 as they near Segwit activation.  How high will it go?  Presumably it will peak right before or during the point of segwit activation (assuming that happens).

That BFX token reimbursement is amazing.  Unfortunately I sold for 50 cents back in December.  I thought they'd take 7 years to repay or possibly more, but I guess people really wanted to buy their stock (and the BTC price went up around 80%).  Interestingly, both the hack and reimbursement are having little impact on swap rates. I would have expected swap rates to surge after the hack (but they didn't probably due to a lack of demand, and from people like me to decided to trust the company and keep our funds in it), and then to decline after reimbursement became likely.

I'll be very amazed if the RRT tokens ever amount to anything.  10 cents (and up 11% today).  I suppose if Bitfinex is feeling super generous they could reimburse them out of pocket, but I strongly doubt it.

Bitfinex redeemed all the remaining BFX tokens. Didn't expect it to happen that fast.
https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/198

Lol you guys still talk about litecoin? Watch ETC go omg 

As many others have suggested, it's possible that people are suppressing the price of Bitcoin by selling and pumping it into other coins just to sell off later and gain more bitcoin, however unlikely that is. In terms of actual uses Litecoin is useless and it's had an interesting history like you said, I expect a downtrend in the price of LTC.

That Litecoin pump.   From $4 to $8 in under 24 hours.  Back down to $7 currently...

I'm bothered by the fact that we never got anywhere near a full story about the last Litecoin pump (and Chinese Litecoin ponzi).    I wonder if the unraveling of that ponzi and selling off of the LTC is what has been keeping LTC at $4 for the past year?  I never checked to see if the big LTC accounts transferred their coins.  They had a couple million LTC if I recall correctly.