nrd525 Market Tracker - page 48. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Chef Ramsay

legendary

Activity: 1568

Merit: 1001

Quote from: nrd525 on July 28, 2015, 01:15:50 AM

BFX USD swaps went up $1.9 million in the past 24 hours to $30.1 million. First time past $30 million.

I closed most of my LTC short as I'm worried about another pump (went from 1500 to 600).

Dude, you need to stop shorting litecoin at this point and go long mostly. Everything else is looking good but stop the short tip. word.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

BFX USD swaps went up $1.9 million in the past 24 hours to $30.1 million. First time past $30 million.

I closed most of my LTC short as I'm worried about another pump (went from 1500 to 600).

Natalia_AnatolioPAMM

full member

Activity: 280

Merit: 100

Quote from: nrd525 on July 24, 2015, 03:08:58 PM

I'm thinking this might be similar to a smaller version of the Coinbase rally. So bitcoin went up around 40%, and LTC doubled. This time the ratio of LTC to BTC increase is larger.

and how large you think it can get?

RoadTrain

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1009

Quote from: nrd525 on July 26, 2015, 08:20:43 PM

I set a stop loss for some of my LTC short.

I think our strategy has worked Grin

Btw we are experiencing a correction right now which can be used to close some profitable shorts hoping for re-entry. IMO, ultimately we may be heading towards $5-6 area, but it's uncertain. Possibility of new highs should not be discounted.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

I set a stop loss for some of my LTC short. I think if it goes up to around $5-$5.20, there is a decent chance that we're seeing pump 2.0 and it will go to $6. Ideally I think you'd get back in at around $5.90 to $6, but it could also be an indicator that the pumpers will try several rounds.

The LTC ponzi continues to receive more attention. But it still looks like a majority LTCers think it is a rumor. The question is whether major investors are taking it seriously.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Update on the Wusintanluo ltc ponzi:
http://shitco.in/2015/07/25/the-wuestenrote-wusitanluo-ltc-ponzi-was-crushed/

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Wusintanluo (I think this is the name of the Chinese ponzi/investment scheme) has a new product:
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2F8btc.com%2Fthread-20877-1-1.html&edit-text=

It looks like it is both a ponzi and a pyramid. There is a lot of MLM in the google translation (Multi-Level Marketing - aka pyramid).

I'd like a translation of the chart with the various amounts from 100 to 10,000. It looks like different rates of returns either based on your length of investment or your level in the pyramid (or both?).
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http://8btc.com/thread-20944-1-3.html&usg=ALkJrhi7xZhHO_VnpFtmMn30BJodCinl9g

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

I'm thinking this might be similar to a smaller version of the Coinbase rally. So bitcoin went up around 40%, and LTC doubled. This time the ratio of LTC to BTC increase is larger.

RoadTrain

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1009

It's interesting whether this rally can move past previous peak at $9. While I doubt that, it still can happen if BTC continues its climb past $300.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

You guys caused this rally just to convince me to use stop losses. Such Trolling! =)

Real news: the Gemini thing is filed (but still could take a while to launch, right?):
http://www.coindesk.com/gemini-exchange-trust-filing/

Morecoin Freeman

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 503

Legendary trader

Quote from: ejinte on July 24, 2015, 05:56:53 AM

I regret that I didn't close it at $3.2 instead, but there will always be new opportunities.

Profit = profit, you did good. Wink

ejinte

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

Quote from: nrd525 on July 23, 2015, 10:21:19 PM

Doesn't the stop loss need to be above your shorting price? How does that work?

If I had used a stop loss, I probably would have just re-entered the market. Now I might have benefited by having the stop loss being called, and then re-entering at a much higher price. But I also might have missed the crash.

The biggest lesson I've learned is that you should never try to short the beginning of a bubble. You want to short much nearer the peak. And even that is so risky that it probably is a bad idea.

Is anyone shorting the Chinese stock market? It has done a small recovery, and looks like it has much further to fall.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stop-lossorder.asp

I had my stop loss to buy back 650LTC at $4.05, so when the the first trade was made above that price my coins was sold at a market order. That seems to have been a good choice as the price now is trading at $4.17. I regret that I didn't close it at $3.2 instead, but there will always be new opportunities.

On poloniex it's possible to have a limited order at another price than the stop loss. There I could set an stop loss at $4.05 to open a limite order at $4.00 or $4.10 or what ever, much better in my opinion. Bitfinex uses market orders only as far as I know.

LTC is moving up as I write this...

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: brg444 on July 22, 2015, 04:45:24 PM

Quote from: nrd525 on July 22, 2015, 04:34:12 PM

People might be using exchanges (especially those with zero fees) and/or gambling sites as mixers. One consequence of not having a mixer site and having a lower market cap is that LTC is less anonymous than BTC. Which makes it easier to track ponzis and scams.

...

BTC continues having problems with online payment adoption:
http://www.coindesk.com/expedia-exec-purchases-with-bitcoin-are-down-40/

Well that was expected. Retail adoption of Bitcoin was never a good idea to begin with and only redditards fooled themselves into believing it was gaining any traction at all.

Errm .. isn;t this exactly what has been said about the probems with a 'deflationary' currency - people wont spend it if they think it will be worth more in the future. Nobody want to pay with BTC now cos they think it will moon.
Even if adoption is happening now, BTC holders won't spend it at the moment because they think (and may well be right) that they will get more 'bang for their buck' in the future, plus the fact that many are also underwater and won't take a loss. Ergo, they spend $'s now, not BTC. Catch 22 ...
Pretty much why Yanis the Greek God, and many other economists, have said that said BTC would not work as a national currency. Deflation destroys economies as people think that if they defer spending thay will get more for their money. All fine if there are a bunch of other people propping up the economy in the interim ... if not ... ooops

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Doesn't the stop loss need to be above your shorting price? How does that work?

If I had used a stop loss, I probably would have just re-entered the market. Now I might have benefited by having the stop loss being called, and then re-entering at a much higher price. But I also might have missed the crash.

The biggest lesson I've learned is that you should never try to short the beginning of a bubble. You want to short much nearer the peak. And even that is so risky that it probably is a bad idea.

Is anyone shorting the Chinese stock market? It has done a small recovery, and looks like it has much further to fall.

ejinte

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

I've my 650LTC short with a base price of $4.65 and I just put a stop lose at $4.05. Not because I think that LTC will fly up again, but in case it does I will be safe. If you'd had stop loses you wouldn't been a victim of the bubble in the first place.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Base price is $4.33 - but much of that is because I re-shorted at $5.20 on the day of the crash, when I realized that it wasn't a bitfinex flash crash.

I've never use a stop loss. Maybe I should but I'm trying to trade fundamentals, not trends. So in my view, the more I lose, the stronger the chance of a reversal. Hopefully this differs from "bag holding". I have only done two major margin trades - so I haven't needed stop losses.

ejinte

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

I like your research, thanks for sharing. What's your base price for your LTC short right now? Did you set a stop lose order?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

So there are alleged three people behind the LTC ponzi. 8.6 million, you might expect each of them to have a third of this (minus the interest payments).

This address has 2.49 million in transactions and a balance of 210k, and got it from the main one. Transactions started around April 15th (when the ponzi began).
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/Lhv6b1tumaytM7ENRwfPwVa8RNfRVYw6eJ

A lot of the money appears to be going out in small amounts. These might exceed the 1% daily interest. For instance, this account got regular payments of 4.5 ltc (0.9%), and then a larger payment of 76 LTC (15.2%) on July 15th. It is possible that this investment scheme had two types of payments.
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/LLgdWh5bSrmXZz4RNiCK4Fu6z2GpCw2yhF

One large untouched address has 273k:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/LLgdWh5bSrmXZz4RNiCK4Fu6z2GpCw2yhF

I'm now up to 1.5 million in LTC that hasn't gone to exchanges.

This person invested almost 500k in the ponzi:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/3Nh3pRKbyEi8tWP5DvF43tzb9sLabqHNH2

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

99% of the 1.06 million LTC balance that was there on July 10th at 6:57 is stored in addresses like the main one or others that have 20k-90k (and received no other incoming transactions other than ones from this ponzi). So they have barely moved and have not been sold on exchanges.

The money hasn't been laundered. The transaction trail is small (only 1-3 jumps) for each of the 30k outgoing transactions.

---
Now so the moderators don't kill me - what is the impact on BTC of a LTC ponzi? Probably marginal. A ponzi induced LTC price crash could hurt BTC, but not by much. The LTC ponzi operators could launder the money through BTC and then into USD or CNY. This could boost BTC short-term (and long term have no effect).

The operators might be better at ponzi schemes than at day trading cryptocurrency (weak evidence: their failure to sell at the LTC top, and their failure to launder their money). In which case, they might do something silly like buying lots of BTC on a single exchange.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Discussion of updates about the LTC ponzi.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1115157.100

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2F8btc.com%2Fthread-20877-1-1.html&edit-text=

Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 48. (Read 83088 times)