I would stick to trading bitcoin.
The litecoin chart scares the hell out of me.
Excellent way to lose money.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 50. (Read 83088 times)
Is there any information available on the big LTC ponzi?
This is their litecoin address which they're still using, even though it is public:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou
I'm guessing that the collapse of the ponzi could lead to a LTC sell off by the ponzi operator, and a large price fall. But they could also just hold the LTC, in which case the investors may have a negative impact on the price as they realize that their LTC are gone.
So long as the ponzi continues, I'm not uncertain as to whether it would have a positive or negative impact on LTC price. I guess it depends on whether there are more people buying LTC to get in the ponzi, or the operator is cashing out.
This is their litecoin address which they're still using, even though it is public:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou
I'm guessing that the collapse of the ponzi could lead to a LTC sell off by the ponzi operator, and a large price fall. But they could also just hold the LTC, in which case the investors may have a negative impact on the price as they realize that their LTC are gone.
So long as the ponzi continues, I'm not uncertain as to whether it would have a positive or negative impact on LTC price. I guess it depends on whether there are more people buying LTC to get in the ponzi, or the operator is cashing out.
I expect a leg up towards $4-5 range along with BTC rise.
More LTC shorting - target price $1.50 to $2.50.
$3.40: 100 LTC
$3.74: 100 LTC
$3.84: 100 LTC
$3.94: 100 LTC
Total position: 900 LTC at a base price of $4.465
$3.40: 100 LTC
$3.74: 100 LTC
$3.84: 100 LTC
$3.94: 100 LTC
Total position: 900 LTC at a base price of $4.465
I really shouldn't have panic closed my LTC short at $5.85. Will there be major bounce? It's looking very dead. Maybe a bounce to $4.20 and then down again.
Greece - the Finance Ministry says banks will open on Friday. Of course they might be optimistic.
http://rt.com/business/273757-greece-banks-deal-vote/
(RT.com not always reliable - but I saw this story somewhere else as well.)
Greece - the Finance Ministry says banks will open on Friday. Of course they might be optimistic.
http://rt.com/business/273757-greece-banks-deal-vote/
(RT.com not always reliable - but I saw this story somewhere else as well.)
So the banks should re-open and that might cause BTC to fall a couple percent.
Not quite.
There are numerous reports suggesting that even if Greece and the Eurozone were to strike a bailout deal (which btw is not guaranteed even after the package terms are approve by Greek congress) it could take at least a month before banks re-open.
source:http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-bank-capital-controls-remain-two-more-months-2015-7?r=UK
Ok, good point. I'll change the subject.
The SEC defines an investment advisor as someone who does it "for compensation". So I definitely don't qualify.
https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/oia/oia_investman/rplaze-042012.pdf
I should be able to provide my opinions on economic matters without being libeled.
The SEC defines an investment advisor as someone who does it "for compensation". So I definitely don't qualify.
https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/oia/oia_investman/rplaze-042012.pdf
I should be able to provide my opinions on economic matters without being libeled.
I just noticed the title of this thread. FYI, it's probably a really bad idea for you to label this thread "investment advice." In fact, it's usually prudent to add a disclaimer to such analysis that specifies that it is not investment advice. Otherwise, you leave yourself open to civil liabilities.
So the banks should re-open and that might cause BTC to fall a couple percent.
Not quite.
There are numerous reports suggesting that even if Greece and the Eurozone were to strike a bailout deal (which btw is not guaranteed even after the package terms are approve by Greek congress) it could take at least a month before banks re-open.
LTC down 10-15% to $4.27.
I'm kind of sad, because I want it to bounce to $5, or $6 so I can increase my short position!
BFX USD swaps are now down $3.5 million in the last two days.
NMC and PPC are holding, in a similar position to LTC. They lost some of their gains, but are holding at the level before the last (and fourth) spike.
I think it might take another major sell-off or even several of them to get LTC back to $1.50-$2 (and NMC and PPC back to the their pre-pump prices).
Greece is voting on the austerity package. I expect it to pass overwhelmingly with support from most of the opposition, as well as a majority of Syriza (like the vote on Friday). So the banks should re-open and that might cause BTC to fall a couple percent. I don't expect the deal to last longer than 1-2 years, unless the European economy improves enough to boost Greece's tourism.
LTC swaps are in shorter supply on BFX. Only 14k of swaps available at below 0.2%/day (though almost all of them at lower rates 0.03%-0.1%), and 112k swaps are outstanding. By contrast up to 220k of swaps were available during the bubble. There is 86k swaps available at 0.7499%/day. Maybe a major LTC holder is planning on selling instead of lending.
I'm kind of sad, because I want it to bounce to $5, or $6 so I can increase my short position!
BFX USD swaps are now down $3.5 million in the last two days.
NMC and PPC are holding, in a similar position to LTC. They lost some of their gains, but are holding at the level before the last (and fourth) spike.
I think it might take another major sell-off or even several of them to get LTC back to $1.50-$2 (and NMC and PPC back to the their pre-pump prices).
Greece is voting on the austerity package. I expect it to pass overwhelmingly with support from most of the opposition, as well as a majority of Syriza (like the vote on Friday). So the banks should re-open and that might cause BTC to fall a couple percent. I don't expect the deal to last longer than 1-2 years, unless the European economy improves enough to boost Greece's tourism.
LTC swaps are in shorter supply on BFX. Only 14k of swaps available at below 0.2%/day (though almost all of them at lower rates 0.03%-0.1%), and 112k swaps are outstanding. By contrast up to 220k of swaps were available during the bubble. There is 86k swaps available at 0.7499%/day. Maybe a major LTC holder is planning on selling instead of lending.
Past 24 hours - $2.57 million in USD swaps closed at BFX. Wow. Biggest one day decline since Jan 14.
It's interesting whether these were LTC or BTC swaps. This may have something to do with what you posted earlier on LTC pump.
Past 24 hours - $2.57 million in USD swaps closed at BFX. Wow. Biggest one day decline since Jan 14.
Not sure how the LTC ponzi relates to an increase in price. As the ponzi operator just pays out from incoming funds, it doesn't really matter whether the currency goes up or down. It seems like an increase in price is more dangerous as it might decrease your income as people might want to cash out, and at some point it'd be very hard for newcomers to join at the rate that you need to keep it going if they had most of their funds in fiat.
It's true. But LTC/USD has higher volume on BFX. So I think there is a lower chance of spikes causing margin calls.
Also - my LTC/USD short is backed primarily by BTC.
I suppose I should buy some BTC to balance out my position, so I'm maintaining the percent of my fluid assets in BTC long (at around 50%).
On the other hand, USD swap rates just spiked on BFX to 0.105% / day - which is a great return.
Also - my LTC/USD short is backed primarily by BTC.
I suppose I should buy some BTC to balance out my position, so I'm maintaining the percent of my fluid assets in BTC long (at around 50%).
On the other hand, USD swap rates just spiked on BFX to 0.105% / day - which is a great return.
Are you aware of the risks coming from possible BTC rally? It will push up LTC against the dollar, possibly not by very much, but still. Isn't it safer to short LTC/BTC instead?
The Oct-Nov 2013 LTC bubble had three sharp rises, followed by stability (or in one case a slower increase), and then a fourth and last "to the moon" rise that was straight up.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcusd
(looking at the 1D candles - I just learned you can pan the chart to the left to go back, by clicking and dragging!)
The last LTC bubble is similar. Three sharp rises with a period of stability (and in this case decreasing intervals between them), followed by a fourth extreme rise.
There are some big differences. The first bubble was faster, had about the same time interval between the three first rises, corresponded with a BTC bubble, and the LTC bubble was much stronger.
Is there a technical pattern for this?
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcusd
(looking at the 1D candles - I just learned you can pan the chart to the left to go back, by clicking and dragging!)
The last LTC bubble is similar. Three sharp rises with a period of stability (and in this case decreasing intervals between them), followed by a fourth extreme rise.
There are some big differences. The first bubble was faster, had about the same time interval between the three first rises, corresponded with a BTC bubble, and the LTC bubble was much stronger.
Is there a technical pattern for this?
I think we might see $3 LTC within 24h.
What is interesting about this LTC rise is that its rate of increase is much closer to BTC than it was during the LTC bubble.
I'm now up to shorting 500 LTC - cost basis of $5.05. I think we're going down to at least $3. But it could take months. If the BTC 2013 crash is any indicator, we could see a bounce as high as $7. So I have some money reserved for that possibility. On the one hand LTC is more volatile - so you'd expect a bigger bounce potential. But on other hand, people should realize that the pump is over.
I'm surprised that a pump group could work. Unless they handed their money over to a single trusted actor there would be great incentive to cash out early.
Meanwhile BTC goes up a lot. $310! Looks like Greece is leaving the Eurozone. Things just get worse and worse. Interestingly the overwhelming majority of Left Platform members of parliament (leftist faction within Syriza), who have 30% of Syriza's seats, even voted for the government's austerity proposal on Friday. So Syriza has pretty much capitulated. But the other Euro leaders still aren't happy and want them to sell off $50 billion of government assets. It looks like Greece is going to leave the Euro and the rest of Europe will be relatively fine with it.
Another downside of my LTC short was that I lost 13 bitcoins. So I'm not taking full advantage of the BTC rise.
I'm now up to shorting 500 LTC - cost basis of $5.05. I think we're going down to at least $3. But it could take months. If the BTC 2013 crash is any indicator, we could see a bounce as high as $7. So I have some money reserved for that possibility. On the one hand LTC is more volatile - so you'd expect a bigger bounce potential. But on other hand, people should realize that the pump is over.
I'm surprised that a pump group could work. Unless they handed their money over to a single trusted actor there would be great incentive to cash out early.
Meanwhile BTC goes up a lot. $310! Looks like Greece is leaving the Eurozone. Things just get worse and worse. Interestingly the overwhelming majority of Left Platform members of parliament (leftist faction within Syriza), who have 30% of Syriza's seats, even voted for the government's austerity proposal on Friday. So Syriza has pretty much capitulated. But the other Euro leaders still aren't happy and want them to sell off $50 billion of government assets. It looks like Greece is going to leave the Euro and the rest of Europe will be relatively fine with it.
Another downside of my LTC short was that I lost 13 bitcoins. So I'm not taking full advantage of the BTC rise.
I can't believe LTC is rising again. I'm short since $4.6. Will get margin called at ~$8.5. Doubt that it will go there though, but as BTC is rising, who knows. 
If BTC is rising, and other things being equal, it's quite natural that LTC/USD is rising as well - via simple arbitrage mechanisms. Jump to: