Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 45. (Read 83088 times)
Closed 100 of my LTC short at a slight profit (or maybe zero after swap costs). Still shorting 500. Lot of traders talking about a floor for BTC here around $350, but I'm skeptical.
If nothing happens soon, we're in a slow grind down.
Has historical daily BTC price data from Nov-Dec 2013 which is useful for the comparison to the current bubble:
http://www.investing.com/currencies/btc-usd-historical-data
(Not sure what index they are using and the percentages will vary a lot by exchange.)
The 27% decline on BFX is the same size as Nov 12-13 (2013) decline from $349 to $255 - both are 27%.
In 2013, this was followed by a large rise and the another 53.5% fall ($823 to $375).
Then the final decline that burst the bubble was a 38% fall from $1095 to $677.
This is probably significant due to traders liking to make these comparisons. But is it significant enough to matter? Currently with BFX at $400, we're going to have to start moving up again within the next four days or so, or the bubble is over. You can see some pauses in the 2013 bubble.
http://www.investing.com/currencies/btc-usd-historical-data
(Not sure what index they are using and the percentages will vary a lot by exchange.)
The 27% decline on BFX is the same size as Nov 12-13 (2013) decline from $349 to $255 - both are 27%.
In 2013, this was followed by a large rise and the another 53.5% fall ($823 to $375).
Then the final decline that burst the bubble was a 38% fall from $1095 to $677.
This is probably significant due to traders liking to make these comparisons. But is it significant enough to matter? Currently with BFX at $400, we're going to have to start moving up again within the next four days or so, or the bubble is over. You can see some pauses in the 2013 bubble.
Bubble increases. Ex. Today's dip was 27% ($504 to $366 on BFX), yesterday 12% ($423 to $375).
Today's increase was also larger (before the crash).
The BFX over BTCe premium is down to $2 (previously $40+).
This 27% dip is trouble.
Currently China has a $40 premium over BFX.
I think this bubble won't last too long. It could be over today. It is unlikely to last longer than 4 weeks.
Today's increase was also larger (before the crash).
The BFX over BTCe premium is down to $2 (previously $40+).
This 27% dip is trouble.
Currently China has a $40 premium over BFX.
I think this bubble won't last too long. It could be over today. It is unlikely to last longer than 4 weeks.
So BTC is currently parabolic. It's useful to treat this as an irrational bubble. What are the properties of a bubble?
-insane growth rates - eg 3-15%/day
-increasing growth rates. So the rate of daily increase (with the exception of pullbacks) will increase.
-the top comes after the greatest daily increase (and the most exuberant trader sentiment)
-sharp plunges - eg. 20% in 5-15 minutes (might happen more in things that you can trade fast and where shorting is allowed?)
-wide divergences between Chinese, US, and BTCe exchanges
-large OkCoin futures premium over spot
-possible impact on altcoins - could spark secondary bubbles
-massive media coverage which could fuel the bubble for a while (Investing in this bubble is possibly more rational than investing in the MM ponzi - and millions of people invest in ponzis)
-strong bounces (Currently watching the fall from $423 to $375 on BFX - but already bounced to $394)
-shorting is very dangerous - ex. Bitfinex BTC shorts fell from 18k BTC to 9k BTC within the past 24 hours (Though LTC shorts are only down from 106k to 88k)
-BTC longs (at least at Bitfinex) tend to peak after the bubble is over.
-insane growth rates - eg 3-15%/day
-increasing growth rates. So the rate of daily increase (with the exception of pullbacks) will increase.
-the top comes after the greatest daily increase (and the most exuberant trader sentiment)
-sharp plunges - eg. 20% in 5-15 minutes (might happen more in things that you can trade fast and where shorting is allowed?)
-wide divergences between Chinese, US, and BTCe exchanges
-large OkCoin futures premium over spot
-possible impact on altcoins - could spark secondary bubbles
-massive media coverage which could fuel the bubble for a while (Investing in this bubble is possibly more rational than investing in the MM ponzi - and millions of people invest in ponzis)
-strong bounces (Currently watching the fall from $423 to $375 on BFX - but already bounced to $394)
-shorting is very dangerous - ex. Bitfinex BTC shorts fell from 18k BTC to 9k BTC within the past 24 hours (Though LTC shorts are only down from 106k to 88k)
-BTC longs (at least at Bitfinex) tend to peak after the bubble is over.
Whaleclub new team speak server:
ts.whaleclub.io
ts.whaleclub.io
Is the Whale Club teamspeak server down or changed?
I've been trying to connect to ts.whaleclub.co for the past week and haven't been able to do so. This is the link from whaleclub.org and it used to work.
I get the error: "failed to resolve host name"
...
BFX: $348, wow.
I've been trying to connect to ts.whaleclub.co for the past week and haven't been able to do so. This is the link from whaleclub.org and it used to work.
I get the error: "failed to resolve host name"
...
BFX: $348, wow.
They just changed a lot of stuff about their website. Big upgrade I suppose.
https://www.whaleclub.co/
Is the Whale Club teamspeak server down or changed?
I've been trying to connect to ts.whaleclub.co for the past week and haven't been able to do so. This is the link from whaleclub.org and it used to work.
I get the error: "failed to resolve host name"
...
BFX: $348, wow.
I've been trying to connect to ts.whaleclub.co for the past week and haven't been able to do so. This is the link from whaleclub.org and it used to work.
I get the error: "failed to resolve host name"
...
BFX: $348, wow.
A lot of debate about whether the current price increase is being partially caused by the MMM ponzi:
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3r1p7l/daily_discussion_sunday_november_01_2015/
Do you think that it is true?
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3r1p7l/daily_discussion_sunday_november_01_2015/
Do you think that it is true?
Ransomware is one of Bitcoin's uses:
http://www.coindesk.com/cryptowall-325-million-bitcoin-ransom/
Is the $325 million number reliable or an exaggeration?
http://www.coindesk.com/cryptowall-325-million-bitcoin-ransom/
Is the $325 million number reliable or an exaggeration?
Maturity is in degrees. Would you disagree that Bitcoin is more mature than in 2013? The proof is in the volatility which has decreased.
One of the things we've learned is that Bitcoin's use in regular online commerce (eg. outside of drugs and gambling) is likely to be tiny. Merchants care more about their customers than the charge backs. As such, the people who pick a value for bitcoin based on the size of the online market economy are completely unrealistic.
It is possible that there is more money of people watching Bitcoin from the sidelines. But watchers aren't going to invest unless there are some real use cases beyond speculation, gambling, and drugs.
One of the things we've learned is that Bitcoin's use in regular online commerce (eg. outside of drugs and gambling) is likely to be tiny. Merchants care more about their customers than the charge backs. As such, the people who pick a value for bitcoin based on the size of the online market economy are completely unrealistic.
It is possible that there is more money of people watching Bitcoin from the sidelines. But watchers aren't going to invest unless there are some real use cases beyond speculation, gambling, and drugs.
Exponential growth is both damaging and helpful (lots of publicity - but it goes very bad after the crash). I expect future "bubbles" to be a lot smaller than previous ones due to maturity/price discovery and greater number of shorting options. So no more 1000% growth like each of the two bubbles in 2013. In our case reaching $600 in mid-2016 would be more than enough.
That is counter-intuitive to the dynamics of this market.
Bitcoin is anything but mature at this point and price discovery is frankly not accurate.
The amount of money watching from the sidelines is orders of magnitude above what it was during previous bubble.
Don't get it twisted, the mother of all bubbles has still yet to come.
On this we agree if nothing else!
Exponential growth is both damaging and helpful (lots of publicity - but it goes very bad after the crash). I expect future "bubbles" to be a lot smaller than previous ones due to maturity/price discovery and greater number of shorting options. So no more 1000% growth like each of the two bubbles in 2013. In our case reaching $600 in mid-2016 would be more than enough.
That is counter-intuitive to the dynamics of this market.
Bitcoin is anything but mature at this point and price discovery is frankly not accurate.
The amount of money watching from the sidelines is orders of magnitude above what it was during previous bubble.
Don't get it twisted, the mother of all bubbles has still yet to come.
Exponential growth is both damaging and helpful (lots of publicity - but it goes very bad after the crash). I expect future "bubbles" to be a lot smaller than previous ones due to maturity/price discovery and greater number of shorting options. So no more 1000% growth like each of the two bubbles in 2013. In our case reaching $600 in mid-2016 would be more than enough.
Thanks for the update nrd.
I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?
What do you think ?
I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?
What do you think ?
Being the early stages, I don't think Bitcoin with have your typical organic growth until major, major adoption. We are in an exponential growth phase, so bubbles will happen. It may take a few more bubbles for it to find its true price before great stability.
This isn't bad, in my opinion. Just ride the waves of exponential growth, KAWABUNGA!
What you said makes sense, I'm not against exp. growth of Bitcoin, I'm just afraid it might damage it hard.
Thanks for the update nrd.
I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?
What do you think ?
I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?
What do you think ?
Being the early stages, I don't think Bitcoin with have your typical organic growth until major, major adoption. We are in an exponential growth phase, so bubbles will happen. It may take a few more bubbles for it to find its true price before great stability.
This isn't bad, in my opinion. Just ride the waves of exponential growth, KAWABUNGA!
Thanks for the update nrd.
I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?
What do you think ?
I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?
What do you think ?
USD/non-futures price is about the same as my last post. Slightly down. The Okcoin quarterly futures premium over BFX is down to $20.
The BFX premium over BTCe is down from $18 to $12.
Okcoin Litcoin futures still have a large premium over BFX (80 cents or slightly over 20%), but it is smaller than it was at the peak.
Price convergence is an indicator of more rational market activity. So we're less bubbly, but still pretty bubbly.
The BFX premium over BTCe is down from $18 to $12.
Okcoin Litcoin futures still have a large premium over BFX (80 cents or slightly over 20%), but it is smaller than it was at the peak.
Price convergence is an indicator of more rational market activity. So we're less bubbly, but still pretty bubbly.
Bitcoin is acting bubbly. $18 or almost 6% difference between BTC-e and Bitfinex.
OkCoin quarterlies at $378 -- compare to $334 at Bitfinex.
The weird thing about this bubble is that there hasn't been major setbacks. We used to crash 20-30% during the 2013 bubble. So it is looking like the early stage of a much larger bubble which is probably causing it to go up even more.
Volume on Bitfinex looks great. Bitfinex has another $1 million USD to lend out, and could easily lend out $2-$3 million/week (for the next 10+ weeks, if not forever) for margin longs if interest rates stay above 0.1%/day.
I'm really happy for BTC. Not so happy that I'm still shorting LTC and that could do literally *anything*.
Fundamentals are weak.
OkCoin quarterlies at $378 -- compare to $334 at Bitfinex.
The weird thing about this bubble is that there hasn't been major setbacks. We used to crash 20-30% during the 2013 bubble. So it is looking like the early stage of a much larger bubble which is probably causing it to go up even more.
Volume on Bitfinex looks great. Bitfinex has another $1 million USD to lend out, and could easily lend out $2-$3 million/week (for the next 10+ weeks, if not forever) for margin longs if interest rates stay above 0.1%/day.
I'm really happy for BTC. Not so happy that I'm still shorting LTC and that could do literally *anything*.
Fundamentals are weak.
Bitcoin at $315. Litcoin is finally following suit after being stable at $3, and now is at $3.80. Looks like someone is taking advantage of the BTC increase to do a LTC pump (my Litecoin short is now back at a loss).
The bitcoin increase is probably too large and too quick to be sustainable.
The bitcoin increase is probably too large and too quick to be sustainable.
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