Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 46. (Read 83088 times)

Ooh, we broke out of the 220 to 245 channel into the low 250s.

Purse.io got hacked (still waiting to hear back from support about my tiny bit of BTC that I cannot access because my account password was compromised and they disabled password resets).

It's interesting that LTC is matching the BTC percent increase, instead of its normal tendency to have much larger variation.  Possibly the longterm LTC downward trend is intact.

Global economy commodities *might* have bottomed out, which might actually be helpful for the general economy as it will avoid bankruptcies and help countries (like Japan) that are struggling with deflation.  I suspect the boom/bust commodity market is very harmful for the economy.  Global stock markets are having a bounce, but will it hold?  I think China still has another 20% to fall.

So are we in a 220 to 245 channel or what?  

Did the blockchain size debate die out?

I'm not sure about the impact of the Bitcoin=commodity ruling in the US.

Bitpay folding is bad news.  Though I guess it is to be expected that the majority of Bitcoin ventures (like any startup venture) will fail.

The very lukewarm economic growth (especially outside of the US), combined with hitting the limits on quantitative easing - might make for difficult times for would be bubbles like Bitcoin.

Still waiting for Litecoin to plummet when the ponzi operators cash out.  

Having fun watching Ruby. Up by a factor of 100 since its lows!  Will it fall 90-95% in an hour when it crashes?

Also was amused that Trendon Shavers plead guilty as I was an early detractor on his ponzi.  Surprised that it took so long.  Is there any evidence that he hasn't spent all the coins (and that there'd be a large auction of them)?  My recollection (especially from a chat log with his ex) was that he was living the high-life and spending it.

Stress Test / attack starts on Sept 10:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21842/coinwallet-begins-pre-test-bitcoin-network-schedules-largest-stress-test-begin-september-10/

Looks like most major pools have implemented some sort of filtering. Spam transactions are very slowly making it into the blockchain.
I'm actually not very happy about that -- it shows that miners can and will filter some transactions deemed illegitimate under certain curcumstances, that is a threat to Bitcoin's fungibility.

Very puzzling that LTC hash rate is only down 10% since the block reward halving.  Especially as the price is continuing to fall. Maybe a lot of miners are speculating and not acting rationally (eg. mining when they could more cheaply buy the LTC).  LTC miners might act less rationally than BTC miners - where it is centralized big business.

Is there any major news on the coinwallet.eu spam test?  I think it is ongoing, but not having an impact. Did miners blacklist IPs to stop it, or what?  I heard they were using relatively large fees (0.0001 to 0.0007 btc).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-09-01/blythe-masters-tells-banks-the-blockchain-changes-everything

Welcome back to the $220 to $240 channel.

BTC price has recovered a lot. LTC is still looking bearish (and the fall in Chinese GDP growth to 4% or possibly lower should reinforce this).

I'm wondering if the CoinWallet.eu September network "stress test" is going to trigger another round of dumping?
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21739/bitcoin-businesses-take-steps-prepare-coinwallets-september-stress-test/

No link. I think it was reddit.  So either Bitcoin, BitcoinMarkets, or BitcoinUncensored.  It was buried in a very long discussion on something.

Do you have a link?

LTC is falling and near my original cost basis ($2.55) for my big short.  Should have held on and shorted it to under $2.  If things get really crazy, LTC could flash crash under $1 at one or more exchanges.

I think people are overacting to the Bitcoin block size drama.  Maybe a lot of people are finally realizing that Bitcoin isn't ever going to handle lots of transactions.  Though I saw an interesting post on Reddit from someone who said they were a big miner and could actually handle 8 GB (not a typo) blocks - now.  The transaction fees would be enough to pay for their costs.

With all this chaos, Bitcoin might retest the January $155-$170 low.  I still think January was the absolute bottom of the bear market, but another shock (like a large government auction or a second large US state adopting the Bitlicense) could send us even lower.   With Bitcoin - the number of possible things that go wrong is infinite.

...

I setup Teamspeak.  I think you can listen in to the Main Price Action Room without being voice verified (I heard a couple people - but nothing recently).  And that is good because the vaughn.tv website is streaming the public room which they've stopped using.

Not only is BFX USD swaps (longs) down $6 million from the peak.  Half (or more?) of the money is out of the swap market. So it is either being held or has moved off the exchange.

There is $3 million of USD swap available (some at high rates), but there was at least $1 million available before the last flash crash.

Maybe some of the money went into placing low bids in the order book.

I think the miners might agree to a 8 mb block size.  So that is good news.    That could put off hard decisions by at least 1-2 years, and meanwhile everyone can forget that the debate ever happened.

44% at 8mb:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3glfo1/44_of_bitcoin_mining_hash_power_is_currently/

BFX bid (and ask) order book is reinforced.  Public bids used to be around 10k down to $100 and are now 17k.

So there could be a second crash, but it is less likely to fall as far.  Also - $5 million of long positions are liquidated.

According to a BFX employee (see the Whale Club audio recording), the flash crash didn't trigger their breaker (which slows down sell orders). 

Now what could still be fun and big (at least for me), is a LTC crash.  My LTC (second big) short is almost positive (well down 10%, but that is a lot better as I closed 60% of it at $5 and am still making up the big loss from that).

I moved $2k out of swaps in preparation for the a possible BTC price fall, but didn't put up any bids until after the crash.

If BTC continues to fall due to the fork crisis, and LTC does a small fall after the halving (due to the lack of a secondary halving bubble) - then that might cause traders to move funds from LTC to "cheap" BTC which could cause LTC to fall to $2.  Just a theory.  Or at some point the LTC ponzi owners are going to cash out and that could crash the price to $1.  It's even possible that the BTC fork is resolved and that provokes LTC to fall. 

I encourage everyone to subscribe to the alternative bitcoin-related reddit forums to increase the level of democracy in our discussions.  There is also a LitecoinMarkets one which where it'd be nice to have more contributions.

Wow I should have placed some low buy orders on BFX.  Flash crash to 162!

I watched a similar video to this link on the Lightning Network - a way to scale Bitcoin to handle billions of transactions (and to allow for small transactions which are currently on their way out - as transaction fees rise).  Looks promising!  Though I don't have a good grasp of what the hurdles and potential problems are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zVzw912wPo

If they can pull it off, this project would be very bullish for Bitcoin. Though it'd probably take 2-3 years to start it.

So the bitcoin block size crisis has gone "nuclear" =)

It is probably a good time to buy in and possibly place some low buy orders in case things get crazy.  Today someone dumped 9k on Bitfinex which was fun to watch.

LTC trending down.  Looking increasingly less likely that there will be another halving bubble. 

Real news: several businesses closing down in NY due to the Bitlicense.  Including Bitfinex.  Fortunately I don't reside in NY state.  This is fairly significant and could become a major problem if the license is adopted by other states.

I read a comment that said 60-65% had gone with 8 mb.  On Reddit.  Not sure how to verify these statistics.

But we didn't even reach the %50+1 nrd !!

8 mb block size might be bullish.

At least it looks like the miners have a super-majority and are making a decision:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3glfo1/44_of_bitcoin_mining_hash_power_is_currently/