The last BTC halving day was in Nov 28, 2012. 2 months before the first 2013 bubble.
https://bitcoinhelp.net/know/more/price-chart-history
Also Litecoin went up 400% before it halved (and then fell down half the way) on August 25, 2015.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 43. (Read 83024 times)
No major news. BTC is up to a new recent high in US markets - this time at the same level ($570) as China.
What do you think the probability of Poloniex going bankrupt, getting hacked, or scamming users is? Their BTC swap rates have gone down to 0.025%/day, and I'm not sure it is worth the risk lending money on there. I had a short run of 0.2% rates (probably entirely due to the ETH bull market) where I felt the risk was worth it.
Cryptsy's running off with the money is a very cautionary tale. Poloniex does seem a bit more professional than Cryptsy, but I'm thinking there is a major chance that something could go wrong.
Cryptsy's running off with the money is a very cautionary tale. Poloniex does seem a bit more professional than Cryptsy, but I'm thinking there is a major chance that something could go wrong.
BFX fined $75k for violating Dodd-Frank, but generally looks like they are fine with the US regulators so that is good news.
http://bitcoinx.io/news/articles/cftc-fines-bitcoin-exchange-bitfinex-75000-for-illegal-off-exchange-financial-transactions/
BFX has an extra $5 million on the margin that is available. Possibly a USD margin whale added 1-5 million when they saw the spike in margin rates (there is currently a $5 million margin funding wall - aka offer - at 0.096%/day which makes me think that is controlled by a single person). So I expect BFX margin rates to gradually fall to 0.025%/day (eg. a very pathetic rate once you control for risk and the 15% fee) unless speculators are quick to take on the extra supply. I don't think BFX speculators need any additional margin funding, as the BFX price had a large premium over Bitstamp and BTC-e during the last BTC price spike. So the additional margin will just increase the potential for a large BFX btc price premium during a spike or bull market.
http://bitcoinx.io/news/articles/cftc-fines-bitcoin-exchange-bitfinex-75000-for-illegal-off-exchange-financial-transactions/
BFX has an extra $5 million on the margin that is available. Possibly a USD margin whale added 1-5 million when they saw the spike in margin rates (there is currently a $5 million margin funding wall - aka offer - at 0.096%/day which makes me think that is controlled by a single person). So I expect BFX margin rates to gradually fall to 0.025%/day (eg. a very pathetic rate once you control for risk and the 15% fee) unless speculators are quick to take on the extra supply. I don't think BFX speculators need any additional margin funding, as the BFX price had a large premium over Bitstamp and BTC-e during the last BTC price spike. So the additional margin will just increase the potential for a large BFX btc price premium during a spike or bull market.
"It" is the current BTC price spike.
BFX margin rates have calmed down (spiked as high as 0.75%, now down to 0.08%) as total margin funding is down $3.7 million in the past 24 hours (this is down from the new all-time high). Also the markets are converging as the Chinese premium is down from as high as $60 to $10, and Bitfinex is converging with the other USD markets (currently tied with Bitstamp, though BTC-E is $15 lower).
So all the signs of establishing a new price floor of $500. But it won't be a strong floor until it lasts.
BFX margin rates have calmed down (spiked as high as 0.75%, now down to 0.08%) as total margin funding is down $3.7 million in the past 24 hours (this is down from the new all-time high). Also the markets are converging as the Chinese premium is down from as high as $60 to $10, and Bitfinex is converging with the other USD markets (currently tied with Bitstamp, though BTC-E is $15 lower).
So all the signs of establishing a new price floor of $500. But it won't be a strong floor until it lasts.
It seems like the general consensus is that there aren't any fundamentals behind this. That is what people are saying on Reddit and a Coindesk article about the price increase. The block halving hype probably won't hit for another couple weeks (and everyone knows about it in advance).
That said, I'd expect it to quickly collapse like the last spike to 500-510 (November 2015). The fact that it hasn't (so far) is very positive.
I guess there is progress on Segregated Witness and everyone is hoping that fixes the block size for at least a year. Kicking the problem down the road, but maybe the Lightning Network will save us at that point.
That said, I'd expect it to quickly collapse like the last spike to 500-510 (November 2015). The fact that it hasn't (so far) is very positive.
I guess there is progress on Segregated Witness and everyone is hoping that fixes the block size for at least a year. Kicking the problem down the road, but maybe the Lightning Network will save us at that point.
Hey nrd,
Great analysis as well, thanks buddy.
Could you define "it" please ?
It seems like the general consensus is that there aren't any fundamentals behind this. That is what people are saying on Reddit and a Coindesk article about the price increase. The block halving hype probably won't hit for another couple weeks (and everyone knows about it in advance).
That said, I'd expect it to quickly collapse like the last spike to 500-510 (November 2015). The fact that it hasn't (so far) is very positive.
I guess there is progress on Segregated Witness and everyone is hoping that fixes the block size for at least a year. Kicking the problem down the road, but maybe the Lightning Network will save us at that point.
That said, I'd expect it to quickly collapse like the last spike to 500-510 (November 2015). The fact that it hasn't (so far) is very positive.
I guess there is progress on Segregated Witness and everyone is hoping that fixes the block size for at least a year. Kicking the problem down the road, but maybe the Lightning Network will save us at that point.
What about the block reward halving?
So what fundamental developments are causing this price increase?
Nothing that I heard of... Probably just TA based, there was a large pile of fiat on Huobi waiting for the big triangle to break in order to buy Buy BUY.
Now that fiat is mostly exhausted, but western exchanges are trying to catch up and have entered FOMO mode.
Auction for 24518 bitcoins seized for crimes:
http://www.afr.com/technology/ernst--young-16-million-bitcoin-auction-20160527-gp53i0
Smaller than the US auctions (144k btc).
http://www.afr.com/technology/ernst--young-16-million-bitcoin-auction-20160527-gp53i0
Smaller than the US auctions (144k btc).
So what fundamental developments are causing this price increase?
Crazy price spike to $540 BFX ($590 in China). I'd strongly consider selling. But I don't like the tax implications (trying to go for the longterm capital gains tax rate which is much lower, and I'm using averaged cost basis which in retrospect is a very stupid idea).
I've done very little research, but in my opinion I'd be very cautious about the ETH DAO (Digital Autonomous Organization). Bitcoin businesses have a history of fraud and failure. Also, most business startups fail. So even if there weren't all sorts of controversies already about the DAO (I've heard that people are concerned about it splitting/atomizing and security), I'd expect it to fail purely on the grounds that it is a very early venture in a community full of scammers.
Meanwhile, BTC hits 500 just now (at least on BFX). For a while I've been thinking that the MtGox bankruptcy resolution will be a positive thing and they just announced the list of accepted claims (!!!) - though I could be totally biased because I hope to get some of my Bitcoinica losses back.
Meanwhile, BTC hits 500 just now (at least on BFX). For a while I've been thinking that the MtGox bankruptcy resolution will be a positive thing and they just announced the list of accepted claims (!!!) - though I could be totally biased because I hope to get some of my Bitcoinica losses back.
Will the UK leave the Euro zone? Trading at around 33% yes
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data
To quote my Jan 26, 2015 post regarding the Jan 13/14 2016 bottom:
"I continue to think that $150-$166 was probably the bottom of the year-long bear cycle."
It did retry the bottom in August 2015 (especially on Bitfinex, much less so on Bitstamp or the Chinese markets). But in general, it's one of my better calls =)
"I continue to think that $150-$166 was probably the bottom of the year-long bear cycle."
It did retry the bottom in August 2015 (especially on Bitfinex, much less so on Bitstamp or the Chinese markets). But in general, it's one of my better calls =)
Fortunately I closed the rest of my LTC short before this rally (maybe a month ago) - so I'm fully long BTC (and lending USD).
What are the reasons for this rally?
I've got: SegWit development is faster than expected (allowing for more transactions without getting into the toxic block size debate), stability leads to growth (a long period of stable prices encourages adoption among everyone whose main use isn't speculation) -- aka continued business developement, the UK might leave the EU (maybe 1/3 chance?), Ethereum's bubble is at least temporarily stopped, the block reward halving (July), and the fact that Bitcoin might really be worth $500-$600 (that's my expectation).
On the down side, the block size debate isn't any closer to being resolved (so far as I can tell - I've stopped paying attention), and who knows what Trump would do to Bitcoin when he finds out about the drug markets.
Still waiting for that MtGox bankruptcy settlement. Should be positive if people get more money than they expect, as many people have probably written it off.
What are the reasons for this rally?
I've got: SegWit development is faster than expected (allowing for more transactions without getting into the toxic block size debate), stability leads to growth (a long period of stable prices encourages adoption among everyone whose main use isn't speculation) -- aka continued business developement, the UK might leave the EU (maybe 1/3 chance?), Ethereum's bubble is at least temporarily stopped, the block reward halving (July), and the fact that Bitcoin might really be worth $500-$600 (that's my expectation).
On the down side, the block size debate isn't any closer to being resolved (so far as I can tell - I've stopped paying attention), and who knows what Trump would do to Bitcoin when he finds out about the drug markets.
Still waiting for that MtGox bankruptcy settlement. Should be positive if people get more money than they expect, as many people have probably written it off.
Poloniex btc lending rates were good for a while, but have now collapsed down to 0.04%/day.
How trustworthy is Poloniex? It looks like they were hacked two years ago, but have kept going since then and the website looks/works well. Apparently based in Delaware. They've got BTC lending at 0.5%/day (highly variable - based on supply/demand similar to bitfinex, but without a FRR) which is pretty crazy (probably low supply). Bitfinex rates are 1/100th of that!
I've avoided shorting Ethereum - which has run up to 0.03 BTC and now is at 0.023 BTC.
I've avoided shorting Ethereum - which has run up to 0.03 BTC and now is at 0.023 BTC.
Predictit is an interesting prediction market
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data
and if you want polling data: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data
and if you want polling data: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk
Guys - I need help, otherwise I'm going to short Ethereum if it goes any higher. Please advise 
UK referendum could be close and that could help BTC. Might be a bigger factor than the halving which I think is overplayed. What will be fascinating (and possibly frothy) is if we see two or more factors go the same direction at the same time (Ex. if we had both halving, the developers/miners/etc agreed on a road map to increase the block size, and MtGox bankruptcy starts payouts).
Global economy continues to look bad. It's not a worldwide recession by any means, but if a couple things go wrong (ex. Trump starts a trade war with China, energy/mining bankruptcies lead to problems with large banks/investment firms, one or more bubbles collapse, or Russia does something crazy).
UK referendum could be close and that could help BTC. Might be a bigger factor than the halving which I think is overplayed. What will be fascinating (and possibly frothy) is if we see two or more factors go the same direction at the same time (Ex. if we had both halving, the developers/miners/etc agreed on a road map to increase the block size, and MtGox bankruptcy starts payouts).
Global economy continues to look bad. It's not a worldwide recession by any means, but if a couple things go wrong (ex. Trump starts a trade war with China, energy/mining bankruptcies lead to problems with large banks/investment firms, one or more bubbles collapse, or Russia does something crazy).
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