Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 52. (Read 82714 times)

http://ibankbitcoins.com

Interesting site.  Includes their trades.  He's been bullish on BTC from $230 to the present.

I'm in BTC for the long term (so 1-2 years or more).  I was just shorting LTC for the short term, but now it is looking like a longer term than expected  (could take a month or more to do a 80-100% retrace).

I think BTC will go down after the Greek drama and block drama resolves.  But this is against a longer upward trend which could over-rule it.  Short term we could easily go anywhere in the $230-$305 range.

On the possibly very negative side, the MtGox bankruptcy is still pending (for the late fall of 2015 or possibly into mid 2016).  If they auction off the bitcoins that will be a huge event.

Unfortunately l have no reads on litecoin. Let's hope you get out at a favorable price . Hang in there buddy.

What is your read on bitcoin? I feel like ~$275 might be the top. We are overbought on multiple time frames and the momentum seems to have stalled.

Where is the best analysis of LTC price?  So far, reddit/r/BitcoinMarkets is the best I've found.

I'm shorting 1600 LTC contracts with a cost basis of $2.55.  So currently down around $5700 (at $6.10 LTC).  Extremely bad.


I'm up around $2000 on BTC (from the recent $220 bottom), which obviously isn't enough.

Today we pumped from $5.30 to $6.20 (15%, by contrast BTC/USD is up 1.6% in the past 24 hours).  The rate at which we are breaking dollar barriers ($2, $3, $4, $5, and $6) is increasing and the log trend line is exponential. However the big question is whether it is exponential enough that we are going to crash soon?

I'm guessing that we'll see an increasing number of pumps as we approach the Sunday deadline for a Greece deal.  Though at some point traders are going to want to cash in.  Or traders will realize that the disconnect between LTC and BTC is too large.  What would be very bad is if the deadline gets pushed back again.

Or maybe Bitcoin will solve the block size debate and that will cause LTC to crash.  My view is that people love to debate things. There are some differences in how people view the role of Bitcoin, but it looks like applying some basic anti-spam filter and/or adopting slightly higher transaction fees can solve the problem.  That will hopefully be combined with an increase in the block size, but even if it isn't - we should be good for at least another year.

reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/ is getting inundated with LTC posts.  There is a mix of people who think they've made tons of money (who haven't sold), who actually made tons of money, who want to get in but think it is too late, who think LTC has potential and is actually worth the high prices, and those who think that it is a pump.

BFX - LTC shorting is at 193,500 (up 46k in the past 24 hours).  The problem with this is that shorting is generally not at a peak when the bubble peaks, as most people are margin called.  Unless the pumpers are lucky enough to not just sell their entire holdings, but also take a negative position on the way down.  That'd be epic profit.

May I ask how many dollars you are in red?

LTC is increasing at an increasing rate.  Bubbles tend to have their greatest rate of increase before they pop.  And crashes do as well, before they reverse, though typically the crashes are faster.  However, I have little idea as to what a LTC bubble peak will look like. There doesn't seem to be a good historical comparison as the last major bubble in the fall of 2013 coincided with the BTC bubble.  By contrast this time BTC is only up 25% from the bottom.



Greece voted against austerity with an unexpected overwhelming majority.  But the Euro and stock markets (other than China which is in bubble mode) are reacting fine.

Doubt that LTC will fall back to $2 that fast, LTC sentiment feels pretty bullish at the moment so it probably won't go from $4 to $2 AFTER the halving.

A lot of Chinese stock market money is flowing into cryptocurrencies at the moment. This is just a forecast what will happen if stock markets around the globe are seeing the same drops as China sees now.

Watch out with shorting LTC, I also got burned shorting a couple hundred LTC.

I also think that the if Greece is sort of resolved (it will never resolve fully), BTC won't go down much.

All over Europe BTC interest is steadily growing because of the Greece situation.

If we break the long term downtrend decisively and clear some resistances at 280/295/315/350/400 who knows what we're about to witness. Would be epic if the ETF is launched at the right time when the rocket is leaving.

agreed. everybody waiting for the outcome of the greek referendum and hoping that somehow that will cause another rally will be the trigger for the next big ltc dump. it doesnt matter which option will win.

my money is shorting heavily ltc.

I'm thinking that after the Greece situation is partially resolved, and LTC halving occurs - that it will fall back to $2.  Of course there could always be another pump before then.  BTC might fall a much smaller amount after Greece situation (like 2-10%).

I adore it!

yes, it is a bubble in my humble opinion.

Thanks for all the advice. You're confirming my idea that the LTC is at a peak =)

(I am long on BTC.  And also have other assets - so I'm not doing a trade that will ruin me by any means.)


Past 24 hours: LTC/BTC up 5%, PPC up 8%, NMC up 19.5%, and BTC/USD up only 2%

Past 30 days: LTC/BTC up 116%, PPC up 58%, NMC up 91%, and BTC/USD up only 13%.

Do you disagree that LTC is in a bubble? Or do you just think it is safer to not short the bubble?

I think things are going to be crazy until the Greece situation is resolved.  I don't think the underlying economic factors are nearly as big as the psychological ones.


Even in the crazy fall 2013 bubble, LTC went from $1.50 to $48 (30x), and Bitcoin from $100 to $1100 (11x).  So this time the ratio of LTC's gains to BTC seem excessive and indicator of a pump that will collapse.


On the other hand, if LTC was really at a peak - I'd expect sharper rises and falls.  Maybe the resistance is coming from people who have learned to recognize an alt-coin pump.

 I told you that shorting litecoin was foolhardy at this point. Go long and then some long, esp on btc and ltc.

@nrd525,
I suggest using any opportunity to cut your position. Not necessarily closing it in full, but lowering the risks.
PS. That's based on the premise that LTC is gonna go considerably down soon. That may or may not be the case.
PPS. I had a 10% loss on shorting LTC yesterday, I did close the position. My losses would be a lot larger if I didn't.

take your lose sir

My LTC short is going badly =(

94k LTC shorts left on BFX.  The down side of not being margin called is that...

At least I canceled my 3.98 short order.

I need BTC to go up at least half as fast as LTC to break even.

yyyep, that was huge! however such pumps will never happen I guess

NMC 4h chart (zoomed out to smallest candles) looks very similar to LTC on bitcoinwisdom.  Both look like they reached the peak of the Elliott waves.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc

ltc chart is very akin to bitcoin, and this should be a good example of what is awaiting bitcoin with the halving, but the price will be more high than a mere x2 boost, in the case of litecoin

because their supply isn't equal and the reward is still at 25 for ltc, those that are really thinking that the bitcoin's halving will not bring a rise, are not paying proper attention