LTC/USD walls at BTCe and Bitfinex are showing lots of resistance (and on BFX the LTC/BTC is showing milder resistance as well - which means people expect BTC to outperform LTC). OKcoin LTC wall is more equally balanced and slightly bullish.
Of course in the past 24 hours, we've been breaking lots of LTC walls.
I think LTC is heading back to $1.80, but what do I know =)
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 54. (Read 83024 times)
Some evidence of a coordinated LTC pump. Two big rises at "10:00" (June 13, and June 16) and two at approximately "0:00".
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/ltccny
First time, the 10:00 pump came first. Second time the 0:00 pump came first.
Or it could just be Chinese prime trading hours?
10:00 (my time) is 10pm in China, and 0:00 is noon. 10pm seems late - unless it is young people who like to stay up late (like whale club).
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/ltccny
First time, the 10:00 pump came first. Second time the 0:00 pump came first.
Or it could just be Chinese prime trading hours?
10:00 (my time) is 10pm in China, and 0:00 is noon. 10pm seems late - unless it is young people who like to stay up late (like whale club).
My LTC short is going very poorly (currently $460 loss). Does anyone have a good explanation for what is happening? Is it just a LTC pump? It looks like LTC broke out of its downward trend line, but the fundamentals are bad. What is LTC used for? Is it used on the dark markets? I know it is used by several gambling sites.
BTC is up (and broke $250), so maybe LTC is over-reacting to that.
So
-BTC going up --> LTC goes up faster (as LTC typically has multiple times the volatility of BTC)
-LTC breaks trend line
-LTC block reward halving is in two months
-LTC might be able to solve the block size debate, or benefit from BTC having a hard fork
-general alt coin pump - PPC, Doge, NMC
-LTC pump for all of the reasons above
LTC shorts only up slightly from 119k to 132k on BFX. But still you have to be very brave to short a bubble. And this is minus shorters who were margin called. So this could be an indicator that we're near the end.
BTC longs (and LTC longs) down - with USD swap falling from $28.8 million to $28.3 million.
I'm considering doubling down on my short. But I really cannot handle the volatility! In retrospect, I should have kept my original position to half its size.
...
On the fundamentals front, I know how everyone loves banks! Blockchain could save banks (and hopefully customers) billions
http://www.coindesk.com/santander-blockchain-tech-can-save-banks-20-billion-a-year/
BTC is up (and broke $250), so maybe LTC is over-reacting to that.
So
-BTC going up --> LTC goes up faster (as LTC typically has multiple times the volatility of BTC)
-LTC breaks trend line
-LTC block reward halving is in two months
-LTC might be able to solve the block size debate, or benefit from BTC having a hard fork
-general alt coin pump - PPC, Doge, NMC
-LTC pump for all of the reasons above
LTC shorts only up slightly from 119k to 132k on BFX. But still you have to be very brave to short a bubble. And this is minus shorters who were margin called. So this could be an indicator that we're near the end.
BTC longs (and LTC longs) down - with USD swap falling from $28.8 million to $28.3 million.
I'm considering doubling down on my short. But I really cannot handle the volatility! In retrospect, I should have kept my original position to half its size.
...
On the fundamentals front, I know how everyone loves banks! Blockchain could save banks (and hopefully customers) billions
http://www.coindesk.com/santander-blockchain-tech-can-save-banks-20-billion-a-year/
Some metrics on # transactions and # wallets. Bullish, but the "mega price rally" is a bit overkill.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-network-growth-metrics-next-mega-price-rally/
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-network-growth-metrics-next-mega-price-rally/
Got any fundamentals besides the block halving? The general alt-coin market is like a permanent bear market, and we've been seeing a divergence where BTC is thriving with projects, businesses, and venture capital - while the alt-coins are dying.
I might just be bitter because of Doge, but I think that crypto-currency has some natural monopoly characteristics - especially in the early stages (say next 2-5 years). So for instance, it isn't that hard to have a payment processor - but Paypal still dominates (even though there are alternatives with fees near zero - like Dwolla).
Also - is there any good discussion of LTC price? I looked at litecointalk, reddit/litecoin, and this forum. I don't see much.
I might just be bitter because of Doge, but I think that crypto-currency has some natural monopoly characteristics - especially in the early stages (say next 2-5 years). So for instance, it isn't that hard to have a payment processor - but Paypal still dominates (even though there are alternatives with fees near zero - like Dwolla).
Also - is there any good discussion of LTC price? I looked at litecointalk, reddit/litecoin, and this forum. I don't see much.
I wouldn't be shorting litecoin right now. I just took it from .00745 to .00855 to went back to bitcoin. Hopefully, I'll catch another dip to a similar entrance point and perhaps moon is right around the corner.
Shorted LTC
100 at 1.83
100 at 1.85
100 at 1.935
100 at 1.975
My overall LTC position (since the start) is down $61.
BFX LTC price spiked to $2.42 (vs $2.10 on BTCe), probably due to margin calls. The LTC (only available) swap rate spiked to 0.7%, though the flex rate didn't go past 0.1%. Somebody had reserved 100k LTC swap, but wasn't using it! So only 125k out of 225k swap was being used. That makes it look like the margin calls were some kind of manipulation, but I know very little about how that'd work.
Apparently people are excited about the LTC block reward halving in August 2015. But that makes no sense. I think it's a basic pump.
During this whole period, the BTC price has only made minor gains.
Maybe BTC will go bullish once the block size debate is resolved. Ideally the MtGox coins would be auctioned OTC as well.
Bitfinex USD swaps continue to reach new high for the past 10 months - at $29.0 million.
100 at 1.83
100 at 1.85
100 at 1.935
100 at 1.975
My overall LTC position (since the start) is down $61.
BFX LTC price spiked to $2.42 (vs $2.10 on BTCe), probably due to margin calls. The LTC (only available) swap rate spiked to 0.7%, though the flex rate didn't go past 0.1%. Somebody had reserved 100k LTC swap, but wasn't using it! So only 125k out of 225k swap was being used. That makes it look like the margin calls were some kind of manipulation, but I know very little about how that'd work.
Apparently people are excited about the LTC block reward halving in August 2015. But that makes no sense. I think it's a basic pump.
During this whole period, the BTC price has only made minor gains.
Maybe BTC will go bullish once the block size debate is resolved. Ideally the MtGox coins would be auctioned OTC as well.
Bitfinex USD swaps continue to reach new high for the past 10 months - at $29.0 million.
BFX usd swaps up 500k to 28.5 million.
Shorted 100 LTC at 1.81, and another 100 at 1.78.
If the cost of mining a BTC is less than the price, what happens?
Either the price could fall to the mining cost OR people could buy more miners and increase difficulty - thus increasing the mining cost.
More people seem to believe that the price will fall to the mining cost.
It seems like the price could move more easily than someone could buy miners as mining hardware companies have notoriously slow delivery times. You cannot buy miners that don't exist! On the other hand, the BTC price is also influenced by speculators and somewhat immune to fundamentals.
Also the fact that mining hardware companies make their plans for new designs six months or more in advance, means that they are acting based on old prices. So they have probably been overproducing hardware during the bear market - unless they predicted the extent to which it would fail (or were risk adverse). When their products come to market - they are likely to sell them at a discount and possibly an economic loss to themselves. In this case, the hardware manufacturer's loss is the miner's gain. As new miners can be more efficient than the old.
I'm still not sure what the ramnifications are. What do people think?
Either the price could fall to the mining cost OR people could buy more miners and increase difficulty - thus increasing the mining cost.
More people seem to believe that the price will fall to the mining cost.
It seems like the price could move more easily than someone could buy miners as mining hardware companies have notoriously slow delivery times. You cannot buy miners that don't exist! On the other hand, the BTC price is also influenced by speculators and somewhat immune to fundamentals.
Also the fact that mining hardware companies make their plans for new designs six months or more in advance, means that they are acting based on old prices. So they have probably been overproducing hardware during the bear market - unless they predicted the extent to which it would fail (or were risk adverse). When their products come to market - they are likely to sell them at a discount and possibly an economic loss to themselves. In this case, the hardware manufacturer's loss is the miner's gain. As new miners can be more efficient than the old.
I'm still not sure what the ramnifications are. What do people think?
BFX USD swap at $27.7 million. Another $1.5 million is available at the flash return rate - so that is significant room for growth in longs.
BFX BTC swap is down by a massive 6000 BTC (from 27700 to 21600).
Price up from $223 to $228, since my last post. The $2 BTCe premium over Bitfinex has narrowed to 80 cents.
BFX BTC swap is down by a massive 6000 BTC (from 27700 to 21600).
Price up from $223 to $228, since my last post. The $2 BTCe premium over Bitfinex has narrowed to 80 cents.
BFX USD swaps up $1 million in the past 24 hours and now at $27.4 million. Highest since August 2014!
BTC swaps also up 1400 BTC in the past 24 hours and now at 27,700 Though this is 6500 below peak.
Traders probably think we'll bounce back to $240.
BTC swaps also up 1400 BTC in the past 24 hours and now at 27,700 Though this is 6500 below peak.
Traders probably think we'll bounce back to $240.
The deployment of KNC's new 16 nm miners is bad news. The overall bitcoin mining industry is zero sum. The hash rate is possibly 1000 to 100,000 times greater than that which is required to secure the network. So this means that new miners are benefiting at the expense of old miners. As the most recent generation of ASIC miners has probably lost a lot of money (due to shipping delays, the bear market, and high fixed costs that are hard to recuperate), this is not good.
http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-deploys-next-generation-16nm-bitcoin-asic/
http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-deploys-next-generation-16nm-bitcoin-asic/
Closed another 100 of the LTC short at 1.61. Felt bad at the time (as it fell to 1.58), but looks much better now. Of course I hope the LTC bounce doesn't last as I still have a 200 short position to close.
Closed half my LTC short (200 at 1.71, 100 at 1.66).
Planning to close the rest between 1.61 and 1.51.
Interesting that it is dropping without BTC falling. This looks like a general decline in several major altcoins, that followed a general rise in them. It looks like the decline in altcoins has further to go (I'd love to short DOGE).
After this altcoin action, maybe the pumpers and speculators will try something with BTC where volatility is at a several month low.
Planning to close the rest between 1.61 and 1.51.
Interesting that it is dropping without BTC falling. This looks like a general decline in several major altcoins, that followed a general rise in them. It looks like the decline in altcoins has further to go (I'd love to short DOGE).
After this altcoin action, maybe the pumpers and speculators will try something with BTC where volatility is at a several month low.
Some controversy at Okcoin which is negative for bitcoin price. The Roger Ver controversy isn't too relevant (unless it provides confirmation of general shadiness?), but the accusations from a former employee about their other practices (encouraging employees to trade, running bots, faking volume, not meeting contract obligations, faking the proof of reserves) are pretty disturbing:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/37tm1b/czs_statement_regarding_the_dispute_between/
and the OKcoin response:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/37u6ca/okcoins_response_to_czs_lies_and_desperate/
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/37tm1b/czs_statement_regarding_the_dispute_between/
and the OKcoin response:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/37u6ca/okcoins_response_to_czs_lies_and_desperate/
The Day Trading Simulator Game, on this forum, is a great example of why day trading is bad.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/trading-simulator-a-fun-free-speculation-game-switch-to-bpi-on-july-15-890086
People started with $100 or the median amount that others had. Currently most people have lost money:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JoeyzXgMXYFq3pixDTsqkNKLJI5iz0eOU_P-tfQAny4/edit?pli=1#gid=1512098707
More like a good example that most people lose money while trading. Not everyone can survive. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/trading-simulator-a-fun-free-speculation-game-switch-to-bpi-on-july-15-890086
People started with $100 or the median amount that others had. Currently most people have lost money:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JoeyzXgMXYFq3pixDTsqkNKLJI5iz0eOU_P-tfQAny4/edit?pli=1#gid=1512098707
The Day Trading Simulator Game, on this forum, is a great example of why day trading is bad.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/trading-simulator-a-fun-free-speculation-game-switch-to-bpi-on-july-15-890086
People started with $100 or the median amount that others had. Currently most people have lost money:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JoeyzXgMXYFq3pixDTsqkNKLJI5iz0eOU_P-tfQAny4/edit?pli=1#gid=1512098707
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/trading-simulator-a-fun-free-speculation-game-switch-to-bpi-on-july-15-890086
People started with $100 or the median amount that others had. Currently most people have lost money:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JoeyzXgMXYFq3pixDTsqkNKLJI5iz0eOU_P-tfQAny4/edit?pli=1#gid=1512098707
Looks like many/most of the major alt-coins have gone up.
DOGE is up 80% in the past 30 days versus BTC
LTC is up 27.5% in the past 30 days versus BTC.
PPC is up 42%.
XMR and DRK are down 9%.
XRP (aka Ripple) is down 3%.
When is the last time that a general increase in alt-coin value, without a smaller positive move by Bitcoin, has happened?
Normally a small move by Bitcoin triggers a larger move by Litecoin. Most notably when Litecoin went from $1 to $40 in the fall of 2013.
I'm wondering if someone is crazy enough to try to pump Bitcoin by pumping alt-coins and hoping for spillover? Or is this just a series of alt-coin pumps that will soon collapse?
Dogecoin is already showing signs that it might have peaked at 87, and has currently dropped to 78.
DOGE is up 80% in the past 30 days versus BTC
LTC is up 27.5% in the past 30 days versus BTC.
PPC is up 42%.
XMR and DRK are down 9%.
XRP (aka Ripple) is down 3%.
When is the last time that a general increase in alt-coin value, without a smaller positive move by Bitcoin, has happened?
Normally a small move by Bitcoin triggers a larger move by Litecoin. Most notably when Litecoin went from $1 to $40 in the fall of 2013.
I'm wondering if someone is crazy enough to try to pump Bitcoin by pumping alt-coins and hoping for spillover? Or is this just a series of alt-coin pumps that will soon collapse?
Dogecoin is already showing signs that it might have peaked at 87, and has currently dropped to 78.
Shorting 600 LTC at around $1.80 (with a current loss of -3.6%).
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