Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 53. (Read 82714 times)

Wow.  LTC is out of control.  If I believed in Elliott waves, this looks a lot like three large up waves with the second increase being the largest one.  Is that typical of Elliott waves?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

I haven't seen any real news other than the Greek exit which should affect BTC as much as it affects LTC - if it has a major impact at all.

BTC goes up 2.3%, LTC up 20%.   Euro is actually up 2.3%.

At Bitfinex about 30% of the LTC shorts are closed since yesterday.

Had two orders that were really intended for spikes.  The first one triggered and I shorted another 200 LTC at 3.48.   Didn't hit my second one at 3.98.

Omg LTC is out of control. I sincerely hope you survive nrd525.

You do hate LTC don't you? lol 

Me too 

Shanghai Composite Index.  Up 120% in the past year, but down 18% (as of last Friday) from the high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}

Shorted another 100 LTC at 3.17.

Shorted another 100 LTC at $3.12. 

Greek referendum could get interesting. I'm guessing they will vote against the deal.  Really they should dramatically cut their defense spending (their above-average % of GDP spent on defense is equal to 100% of their above-average European debt load).

I think the popping of the Chinese stock market bubble (and maybe real estate bubble too?) will hurt LTC more than BTC.  Though it could be pretty bad for BTC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/shanghai-composite-heads-for-worst-month-in-year-as-futures-drop

Apparently BFX changed the way in which USD swaps are calculated.  So the current number of USD swaps is at an all-time-high (not just a 10 month high).


http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3ah8su/daily_discussion_saturday_june_20_2015/

[–]deb0rk 3 points 8 hours ago*
My longwinded and possibly confusing explanation here.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/315ks5/daily_discussion_thursday_april_02_2015/cpywuly

Updating first part, taking our current USD swap total and comparing it to the old system:

$30M swaps today would equal at every minimum $42.6M back then. That is absolute lower bound, if everyone was max leverage 1:3.33.
If not everyone was max leverage, and say average leverage was 1:2, then total would be $60M.
Second part, taking old $31M and comparing to current system, hasn't changed.

If everyone was at maximum leverage, $31M back then would be equivalent of $18.6M today. That is absolute upper bound.
If not everyone was max leverage, and say average leverage was 1:2, then it'd be equal to $15.5M today.
I think the best way of comparison is to #2, translating old system $31M to current system. Currently USD swap sum represents the absolute certainty of USD swaps that must be closed at some point.

...

It is also important to recall that some of the USD swaps are LTC longs.  I'd guess that there are several times more longs than shorts, so say 2:1.  LTC shorts are 220k - or $660k - so there could be $1.3 million of LTC longs.

Bitfinex LTC swaps up to 220k. All time high (if you exclude the brief high several days ago where the swaps were taken out, but not used).
Still another 45k of swaps available at decent rates. Get them while you can =)
The higher flash rate (0.05%/day) is increasing supply.

I shorted another 100 at $2.98 and 100 at $3.07.  I'm surprised at LTC's resiliency. Yesterday I frankly thought it was all over. I wonder if the pumpers are considering a push to $4? I kind of think it is either a push to $4 or fall back to $2.  It's been at $3 for a while and I'd expect the pumpers would be taking large profits.  Maybe they are trying to maintain the $3 price while still selling slowly.

The LTC China over US premium is down to 1% (previously during the intense part of the pump it was 3-4%).  The BTC premium is down too.

BTC is slightly down, but still a lot better at $240+ than $220.  Much less talk of needing another crash below $200.

The blockchain size debate is interesting. In one way it is a debate between whether Bitcoin should be for the masses (high limit) or for more of an elite (keep 1 MB) as advocated by noted Bitcoin entrepreneur, elitist, and troll: Mircea Popescu (trilema.com).  I'm hopeful that there will be a consensus, though it is very challenging to debate anything on the internet - face to face is much better.

I'd be very careful with shorting alts right now. I still remember how it burned me in 2013 when LTC went to $48
Though I don't expect such a pump to happen, but I didn't expect it back then as well

BFX USD swaps up $1.36 million in the past 24 hours to $29.6 million - highest since August 2014.
At this rate we could see a USD swap rate spike to 0.1% or more in the next week (which is good because the swap rate normally is in a perpetual decline until it spikes, and I'm lending out).

My LTC short is looking slightly less crazy. Still down $600 and 29%.

PPC is down, but hasn't crashed to pre-pump levels. General alt-coin pump is still pretty strong.

Yes, you are correct.  I'd be closing my short position, so it is buying =)

More like you are too smart to try to short or go long on wild speculation =)

Looks like the LTC bubble is over.  We'll see.


Are there any good books or first-hand accounts on how pumping works?
I would expect a lot of problems. For instance, if you have a group of people and you agree to pump LTC from $2 to $3 - then all the pumpers would be tempted to undercut each other. So they'd sell at $2.95, $2.90, and eventually you'd have no pump at all.
Maybe it relies upon having a single actor capable of doing the pump themselves and attracting momentum traders.  I'm guessing the whale pumper tries to make money off the momentum traders.

You mean 'not planning on buying LTC until it drops to'?
Anyway, best of luck with your short positions.
I didn't have the balls to anticipate this wild action in LTC.

Well nrd525, good luck with those trades. I didn't have the balls to short on that last parabola a few days back, would have been sitting on a tidy profit otherwise.

Major moves - I'm thinking Bitcoin should be at $300 going to $400.  If not this year, then at least in 2016.  But I'm heavily biased towards the price exceeding my cost-basis.

In other news, two days ago I shorted another 100 LTC at 3.07, and 100 at 3.12 -- for a total short of 1000 LTC.  Am I moving the market? =)
I thought about "doubling down", but the level of risk is just too high.  And I really don't understand LTC dynamics. Its volatility is somewhere between BTC and the really crazy minor altcoins like DOGE or PPC.

I also reinforced my margin, making it both extremely unlikely that it will be called and extremely painful if it happens.   

Currently not planning on selling LTC until it drops to $1.50-$1.90.  But that might change.

What would be classed as major? Holding above $300?

The general alt-coin rally continues.  LTC is firm at $3 to $3.10.  PPC up 10%.  DOGE holding strong at only 10% below recent high.  NMC up 20%.  BC up 16%.

I'm wondering if anything big will happen at 6am when China wakes up?

Bitfinex swaps
BTC - 17,700 - up 1200 past 24 hours, just up off a 3 month low.
LTC - 172,000 - up 30,000 on June 17.

BTC-e has a big ASK wall for LTC/USD.  BFX, OkCoin, and Huobi all have more neutral walls.

If Bitcoin breaks into $260 it could get interesting. Or even if it holds $250 (USD, not Yuan - as the Chinese markets are already at $250).  Of course "interesting" means it might move as high as $270.  I wouldn't expect anything major.

Yep, it does seem rather obvious. There seems to be some exuberence coming into btc, perhaps this is bleeding over into ltc as well.

LTC pump is ridiculous. I was really close to buying at 1.8 with ~30k USD.
Would have earned me well over 15k USD within 72 hours, damn!

The BTC-e Ask wall went from 50k to 16k before the current LTC price surge.  6 AM in China. You'd think they be tired from last night's action!

China has a 4% premium on LTC over US markets.  China also has a 2% premium on BTC.

LTC/USD walls at BTCe and Bitfinex are showing lots of resistance (and on BFX the LTC/BTC is showing milder resistance as well - which means people expect BTC to outperform LTC).    OKcoin LTC wall is more equally balanced and slightly bullish.

Of course in the past 24 hours, we've been breaking lots of LTC walls.

I think LTC is heading back to $1.80, but what do I know =)