Hmm. Shorts (after just reaching another all-time-high on BFX) are winning. BTC down as low as $231, but bounced back to $236. They might be going for $215-$220. On the other hand, if we bounce off $231 as the bottom - we should go back to around $265.
Fundamentals: news story about NJ wanting to impose sales tax twice on bitcoins is disturbing. Once to buy the bitcoins (as they are treated as property) and secondly for the sales tax on the actual good.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 56. (Read 83024 times)
Does anyone know what factors determine the premium that Circle charges for bitcoins compared to the market Bitstamp or Bitfinex rate?
In the past I've seen it around 0.8-1% over Bitfinex. Currently it is 1.3%. I'm wondering if it is higher because Bitstamp is at the same price as Bitfinex (so it might be based on the average of the two), whereas normally Bitfinex trades a bit higher.
I'm trying to get some money into Bitfinex to lend more USD swaps and want to use Circle to get it there. But 1.3% premium + 0.1% Bitfinex fee + 0.2% slippage - adds up. The payback is still pretty good - 19 days (after fees if the 0.1%/day swap rate holds), and assuming you want your money in Bitfinex. As getting it back into USD would cost me another 1-2% (unless I move all my money using an international wire).
I'm only moving $1000-$2000, so international wires aren't worth it.
Coinbase rates are even higher than Circle. 0.6-0.7% over the BFX market price, plus a 1% fee. So using them would cost me 2% to get my money to Bitfinex.
In the past I've seen it around 0.8-1% over Bitfinex. Currently it is 1.3%. I'm wondering if it is higher because Bitstamp is at the same price as Bitfinex (so it might be based on the average of the two), whereas normally Bitfinex trades a bit higher.
I'm trying to get some money into Bitfinex to lend more USD swaps and want to use Circle to get it there. But 1.3% premium + 0.1% Bitfinex fee + 0.2% slippage - adds up. The payback is still pretty good - 19 days (after fees if the 0.1%/day swap rate holds), and assuming you want your money in Bitfinex. As getting it back into USD would cost me another 1-2% (unless I move all my money using an international wire).
I'm only moving $1000-$2000, so international wires aren't worth it.
Coinbase rates are even higher than Circle. 0.6-0.7% over the BFX market price, plus a 1% fee. So using them would cost me 2% to get my money to Bitfinex.
Bitfinex USD swaps up 1.3 million in the past 24 hours to $26.6 million (looks like a short-term bet on the bounce back from 244 to 255 - or even 260).
BTC swaps also up by 700 to 27,000. Not sure what they are thinking.
No new fundamentals.
BTC swaps also up by 700 to 27,000. Not sure what they are thinking.
No new fundamentals.
The best thing about having your income plunge 60% due to Bitcoin losses is the tax refunds!
#Bitcoininvestorproblems
#Bitcoininvestorproblems
+1
The best thing about having your income plunge 60% due to Bitcoin losses is the tax refunds!
#Bitcoininvestorproblems
Tax refunds may be also the reason behind halting the recovery of Bitcoin in March. #Bitcoininvestorproblems
Great thread, added to my watch list, thanks.
The best thing about having your income plunge 60% due to Bitcoin losses is the tax refunds!
#Bitcoininvestorproblems
#Bitcoininvestorproblems
BFX btc swaps are up a lot - to 26800 BTC, pretty close to the all-time record of around 27000 BTC.
http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc.php
There is also strong bullish sentiment in the $25 million USD swaps which are at local high of the most since July/August 2014 (when we had a dramatic decline from $31 million to $18 million).
I'm not sure what this strong set of divergent opinions means. Increased volatility?
http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc.php
There is also strong bullish sentiment in the $25 million USD swaps which are at local high of the most since July/August 2014 (when we had a dramatic decline from $31 million to $18 million).
I'm not sure what this strong set of divergent opinions means. Increased volatility?
If we do get into a solid bull market, the Bitfinex USD swaps could rise to $100 million in as little as 4 months (quadrupling the current $24 million). That extra $75 million can buy a lot of bitcoins (250,000 at $300 each). Now while $100 million is currently in the medium to long term, if the swap keeps growing by $500,000-$2,000,000/week - that is still some decent bullish pressure - and it's only part of the overall pressure.
Of course if history repeats, the Bitfinex USD swaps will peak after the bull market is over. So it isn't the most reliable indicator.
Of course if history repeats, the Bitfinex USD swaps will peak after the bull market is over. So it isn't the most reliable indicator.
The BFX USD swap rate has been spiking every 9-13 days - four times in a row.
Feb 15
Feb 26
March 10
March 19
http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd.php
Possible cause - someone with a lot of 10-12 day swaps that renews a large amount at the same time (and does so in a period of high swap demand - otherwise the rates would spike down). If it were 7 days (or 14 days), it could be waiting for new money to be processed by the banks - but that doesn't seem to be the case.
For all the more (relatively) cautious investors out there, it looks like BFX swaps are back to making decent returns. Though I'm still going to be very happy if I get 20% APR for 2015.
Feb 15
Feb 26
March 10
March 19
http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd.php
Possible cause - someone with a lot of 10-12 day swaps that renews a large amount at the same time (and does so in a period of high swap demand - otherwise the rates would spike down). If it were 7 days (or 14 days), it could be waiting for new money to be processed by the banks - but that doesn't seem to be the case.
For all the more (relatively) cautious investors out there, it looks like BFX swaps are back to making decent returns. Though I'm still going to be very happy if I get 20% APR for 2015.
Closed my position within the past hour at 261.20 - for a nice $120 profit (or more like $110 after fees). This is my best day trade ever!
Note: do not day trade, unless you want to ruin your life and/or lose all your money, or you have insider information. Day trading is gambling. Stay tuned for future posts where my luck runs out =)
That said - if you've made a large profit from this move, you can PM me and I'll send you my bitcoin address for a donation =)
Note: do not day trade, unless you want to ruin your life and/or lose all your money, or you have insider information. Day trading is gambling. Stay tuned for future posts where my luck runs out =)
That said - if you've made a large profit from this move, you can PM me and I'll send you my bitcoin address for a donation =)
Went long 10 contracts at $249.20 on the second dip.
Darkmarket Evolution gets hacked for an unknown amount of bitcoins. I've seen two different numbers (one staff member estimates three times the earlier reported number).
BFX price at $254 (after falling to $249). I'm guessing a bounce-back to $270. Considering going in on the margin...
BFX price at $254 (after falling to $249). I'm guessing a bounce-back to $270. Considering going in on the margin...
Money is flowing in pretty quickly to BFX and USD swap rates are heading down, even though total outstanding swap is still going up.
On the plus side, this means that the number of long positions could increase - probably at a "sustainable" rate of 10%/week (eg. from $20 million to $22 million in one week, and to $40 million in 7 weeks) at 0.10% daily interest - if the market goes very bullish.
On the plus side, this means that the number of long positions could increase - probably at a "sustainable" rate of 10%/week (eg. from $20 million to $22 million in one week, and to $40 million in 7 weeks) at 0.10% daily interest - if the market goes very bullish.
EU to limit credit card fees to 0.3% and debit cards to 0.2%.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20150306IPR31705/html/MEPs-put-an-end-to-opaque-card-payment-fees
It looks like centralized payment schemes are going to have the lowest fees for small to medium sized transctions, not Bitcoin. Though in the US we're still waiting for lower fees as we pay 2-3% on credit cards (solutions like Dwolla aren't making inroads).
Small inroads into the remittances market:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bitcoin-is-being-used-by-african-migrant-workers-to-send-money-home-10098169.html
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20150306IPR31705/html/MEPs-put-an-end-to-opaque-card-payment-fees
It looks like centralized payment schemes are going to have the lowest fees for small to medium sized transctions, not Bitcoin. Though in the US we're still waiting for lower fees as we pay 2-3% on credit cards (solutions like Dwolla aren't making inroads).
Small inroads into the remittances market:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bitcoin-is-being-used-by-african-migrant-workers-to-send-money-home-10098169.html
The venture capital news is strong.
$116 million for "21 inc".
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/03/10/secretive-bitcoin-startup-21-reveals-record-funds-hints-at-mass-consumer-play/
The $1 billion estimate is a bad case of using extrapolation on a small data set. We're probably going to hit anywhere from $300 million to $3 billion in venture funding this year:
http://insidebitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-venture-capital-funding-pace-1-billion-2015/30665
Also - BFX USD swap rates are spiking to 0.7%/day. Lowest offered rate is currently 0.33%/day. Which is super-crazy and a great rate for your USD investments.
I recently added some USD money to my BFX account to lend out. I bought at Circle (seems to have a 0.9% premium / disguised fee over Bitfinex) and also at Coinbase (1% fee) - and sold BTC at Bitfinex at approximately the same time. For small amounts it is cheaper than using wire transfers. I wish I could have bought coins at the Coinbase exchange (zero fee until March 30th), but I'm in one of the US states that they don't cover. So I pay around 1.1% in fees (BFX + Circle/Coinbase) to transfer USD. Hopefully swap rates will stay high and I'll make the money back within 2-3 weeks. At 0.02%/day, it could take a lot longer.
Hopefully Coinbase or somebody registers in my state, so I can get money from bitcoins into USD at a lower fee rate than 1% (and use ACH transfers to my bank account).
$116 million for "21 inc".
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/03/10/secretive-bitcoin-startup-21-reveals-record-funds-hints-at-mass-consumer-play/
The $1 billion estimate is a bad case of using extrapolation on a small data set. We're probably going to hit anywhere from $300 million to $3 billion in venture funding this year:
http://insidebitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-venture-capital-funding-pace-1-billion-2015/30665
Also - BFX USD swap rates are spiking to 0.7%/day. Lowest offered rate is currently 0.33%/day. Which is super-crazy and a great rate for your USD investments.
I recently added some USD money to my BFX account to lend out. I bought at Circle (seems to have a 0.9% premium / disguised fee over Bitfinex) and also at Coinbase (1% fee) - and sold BTC at Bitfinex at approximately the same time. For small amounts it is cheaper than using wire transfers. I wish I could have bought coins at the Coinbase exchange (zero fee until March 30th), but I'm in one of the US states that they don't cover. So I pay around 1.1% in fees (BFX + Circle/Coinbase) to transfer USD. Hopefully swap rates will stay high and I'll make the money back within 2-3 weeks. At 0.02%/day, it could take a lot longer.
Hopefully Coinbase or somebody registers in my state, so I can get money from bitcoins into USD at a lower fee rate than 1% (and use ACH transfers to my bank account).
As always A+ nrd525!
I think the clear trend reversal happens before $400 but we definately need to stabilize first at $300+ and then $350+
I think the clear trend reversal happens before $400 but we definately need to stabilize first at $300+ and then $350+
You can follow an interesting group of traders on TeamSpeak: http://vaughnlive.tv/whaleclub
Only has audio when the traders are up, and if the market is active. So often there is no audio for hours. They seem to all be doing very short-term trades, so I'm unsure as to whether it is informative. But it'll be entertaining to follow even for minor market moves.
Only has audio when the traders are up, and if the market is active. So often there is no audio for hours. They seem to all be doing very short-term trades, so I'm unsure as to whether it is informative. But it'll be entertaining to follow even for minor market moves.
You can also actually join in on the discussion if you want. theres multiple rooms which is also sometimes why its quiet.
I appreciate the reasoning behind your investment decisions. Nicely done. 
Reviewing my past posts, I think I did a good job of calling the bottom. And more importantly, I did a great job of buying at the bottom.
The latest US government auction of 50k bitcoins went off without a hitch. We don't know who bought them (someone really needs to FOIA this information!).
I'm very happy with the rise to $290, but am concerned about the lack of significant news. It looks like we're breaking the long term bear trend, but I'm not sure how to tell this for certain. It is unlikely that we'll reach a new high within the next year. I guess reaching $400-$500 would be a clear reversal of the trend, especially if we can stabilize above $400.
Latest tool: cryptowatch.ch beats bitcoinwisdom.com for market watching as it includes more markets (like OkCoin future contracts - which are volatile, but often more fun to watch).
US stock market is hitting new highs. Job growth is strong and the Fed might start to increase interest rates this year. I'm not sure how the US economy is able to be so healthy given the problems in Europe and slowdown (only 7% growth) in China, but maybe so long as first place and third place trading partners Canada and Mexico are doing ok - the US could be fine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States).
On the one hand inflation is good for Bitcoin, but quantitative easing was also good.
The latest US government auction of 50k bitcoins went off without a hitch. We don't know who bought them (someone really needs to FOIA this information!).
I'm very happy with the rise to $290, but am concerned about the lack of significant news. It looks like we're breaking the long term bear trend, but I'm not sure how to tell this for certain. It is unlikely that we'll reach a new high within the next year. I guess reaching $400-$500 would be a clear reversal of the trend, especially if we can stabilize above $400.
Latest tool: cryptowatch.ch beats bitcoinwisdom.com for market watching as it includes more markets (like OkCoin future contracts - which are volatile, but often more fun to watch).
US stock market is hitting new highs. Job growth is strong and the Fed might start to increase interest rates this year. I'm not sure how the US economy is able to be so healthy given the problems in Europe and slowdown (only 7% growth) in China, but maybe so long as first place and third place trading partners Canada and Mexico are doing ok - the US could be fine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States).
On the one hand inflation is good for Bitcoin, but quantitative easing was also good.
Positive News: Bitcoin Investment Trust gets approved by some financial authority so I think you can put it in your tax sheltered US retirement plan (401 k).
Price: Bitcoin has gone up a lot. From around 210 to 285 in the past 20 days, and the rate of increase is increasing.
The news is very positive, but I think the market is over-reacting to news that should have been priced in.
Bitfinex USD swap rates are up to almost 0.06% on the Flash Return Rate (highest level since Dec 18). BTC rates are lower (0.019%) and more significantly have a large amount of untaken offers at that rate (currently 6000 BTC). The amount of USD swap that is lent out is up by about 2 million over the past three weeks (from $16 million to $18 million). And the amount of BTC swaps lent out is down from the peak of 23k to 16k.
There is an upcoming March 5th auction of 50k Silk Road BTC. I think each of these auctions tends to have less impact than the prior one, but in this case with a bullish market it could have greater impact.
Price: Bitcoin has gone up a lot. From around 210 to 285 in the past 20 days, and the rate of increase is increasing.
The news is very positive, but I think the market is over-reacting to news that should have been priced in.
Bitfinex USD swap rates are up to almost 0.06% on the Flash Return Rate (highest level since Dec 18). BTC rates are lower (0.019%) and more significantly have a large amount of untaken offers at that rate (currently 6000 BTC). The amount of USD swap that is lent out is up by about 2 million over the past three weeks (from $16 million to $18 million). And the amount of BTC swaps lent out is down from the peak of 23k to 16k.
There is an upcoming March 5th auction of 50k Silk Road BTC. I think each of these auctions tends to have less impact than the prior one, but in this case with a bullish market it could have greater impact.
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