Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 12. (Read 40042 times)

Yeah, Vardy and co let me down, KdB showed up. No more Haaland again tonight, I'm boring, so Sevilla win in final group game? Pep suggests he's rotating...

Was hoping to see better odds elsewhere against Real or Ajax but no 10/1 specials...

100 units at Fairlay on Sevilla to WIN vs City @14.43. Other odds: 14.10
Units advantage: 33

That was never happening, was it, even if Antony was doing his tricks miles away from a defender ha!

But today we have the bottom team meeting what should be the top team. Leicester are in dire straights but Vardy loves a big game, and Haaland has to stop firing at some point, right?

100 units at Fairlay on Leicester City to WIN vs City @10.06. Other odds: 9.42
Units advantage: 64

^ Thanks! I actually only recorded 2016 season when we were in Europa League, almost all my bets were just on Liverpool, they were in Europa League, chasing a new format under Klopp, odds were great. I made a lot of bets on them ML but also I recall Sturridge scoring (he was on a hot streak). It was a pure for fun gamble with a very small amount, new bookie accounts to take advantage of tremendous odds, and ended the season with a huge sum despite losing the final.

Since then, I actually don't bet on Liverpool much if odds are below 2/1 except to tag them on to accas. I honestly don't know if I'm profitable on them but I made quite a lot of outright money on them winning UCL and Premier League, not to mention big bets against City (where we're always the underdog)... the 20/1 odds on us to qualify vs Barca after we got thrashed 3-0 jumps to memory as the biggest odds win on single bets.

So I feel I can safely say -- without proper evidence but I bet if you went through this thread and picked out Liverpool-only bets -- that I don't lose too much on Liverpool since odds are rarely above 2/1, and when they are, that's big value for me. Big bets as the underdogs pays off quite a bit because we do have a high win rate against fancier opposition.

We deserved the in last night, but we did NOT deserve the HT lead. Funny how football goes.

Anyway, just 1 ambitious bet tonight and that's on Sheriff to beat United... I actually thought I snatched super value at 31/1 because even with price boost on most bookies it was well under 30, but today odds are as high as 36/1 on Fairlay. So... I'll count that as negative value as I won't double down stakes

100 units at Fairlay on Sheriff Tiraspol to WIN vs United @31.00. Other odds: 35.98
Units advantage: -498

Oops! I forgot to congratulate you on this victory  


I also think that the odds are good, although betting on Liverpool is dangerous as always (although if I remember correctly in the pool, I chose Liverpool to win). By the way, as a Liverpool fan, do you keep separate statistics on the success of bets on them? It would be interesting to know the result because in some games Liverpool takes a victory that is highly quoted by the bookmakers (as with City), and in some "reliable" games they lose points.

Brighton actually started... brightly, if defending well is bright. But enough about that, tonight I'm putting a big one on Liverpool but for this thread, just a modest doubling down on regular stakes will do for a half time lead. Yes I know the Reds concede first 80% of games this season but can we just get the early lead first?

200 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN at HT vs Ajax @2.56. Other odds: 2.48
Units advantage: 16

Big win for Liverpool and we're back in business! I know it's pretty dumb to tempt the gods to get City another loss, at home, no doubt, and to toothless Brighton, no doubt, but I love betting on and against streaks...

100 units at Fairlay on Brighton to WIN vs City @15.84. Other odds: 14.20
Units advantage: 164

Well, a clean slate. That's still better than a lot of other alternatives in gambling I guess. Almost as if I'm just bent on making this the first season ending in a loss, right?

Which brings us to the next dangerous bet...


I think it's excellent odds, actually. It rose to 44/10 at some point (price boost probably would have taken that to almost 5/1), but after their thumping win in Glasgow, it's back to around 41/10 now.

No Diaz, no Matip, no Trent -- ordinarily, bad news for me, but with the way defence has been acting up lately, it's not really terrible news (Diaz will be missed for sure, but with Firmino in rich vein of form, I'm okay with Jota slotting in and helping him out). We've also got Robbo back, not that Tsimikas has been bad, but he enjoys going against City.

As you say, and this is exactly how I see odds. 4/1 means we should win at home 1 out of 4 games. I believe even at our current form, we win 1 out of 3 (win, lose, draw). Is that good value? For me 100%.

So 500 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs City @4.40. Other odds: 4.04
Units advantage: 160

What do you think about the odds in the game Liverpool - City? At the moment the quotes are as follows:

3.85 - 4.10 - 1.87

In the game with Arsenal, I was sure that Arsenal would not lose (although the quotes were cloudy). But when I see such odds for City against Liverpool, I have great doubts in its fairness. Liverpool have been bad this season but they can't be so bad that they don't win at least one of their three home games against City at a difficult moment. For me the Liverpool bet has a lot of value (3.85-3=0.85 ~ probably 28% of the value).

Looks like I'm about to repeat last season's miserable performance by making too many bets. None hit yesterday and far from it too, so I should just keep this steady but... hear me out.

Liverpool are 2.85 to win versus Arsenal. I have never seen this high odds before against Arsenal and it's for 2 reasons:
- Arsenal have the better form
- Liverpool have conceded in every game but 2
- Arsenal are at home, so home money is piling on the current league leaders.

I have further explanations here.

So I think, let's put almost all the profit we have got on this game, if we lose, it's as if we start on a clean slate. If we win, we're back in business.

400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal @2.85. Other odds: 2.70. Bet ID: 6341669c35d4bf2b81d139ab
Units advantage: 60

Probably yeah =) I'm such a small fish it doesn't move the markets, so I'm safe I think!

Anyway, 3 games today, before some silly bet tomorrow but let's see how this turns out.

City will win, but if there's a blip, I want it. Real look amazing, but Getafe have been doing some serious tricks and red cards at home, so expect chaos and Chelsea, well, without Kante is always my reason to bet against them even if Wolves look horrible... maybe Traore can redeem himself with his rare once a season performance?

100 units each at Fairlay:

Getafe to WIN vs Real Madrid @7.17. Other odds: 6.80
Wolves to WIN vs Chelsea @8.58. Other odds: 8.25
Saints to WIN vs Man City @21.00. Other odds: 19.20
Total units advantage: 37+33+180 = 250

Okay, I understand you. I will try to observe odds with the help of this service. It turns out that if we see an opportunity to place a bet with a crypto bookmaker with odds (with or without boost) that are at least a few percent better than the best odds from fiat bookmakers, then we should do it because this is a value bet.
I would like to know if anyone does this on a regular basis - probably if they do, they keep quiet about it so as not to spoil the market, hehe.

The less said about my poor bet, the better. Worst thing is even if United did win, I'd have lost thanks to Liverpool's leaky defence.

But Champions League is back, and I'm putting some bets over the next 2 days, but let's start with tomorrow night. Today, Viktoria are over 63/1 to win against Bayern, but as much as I'm tempted, Mane and co will win. So...

100 units at Fairlay on Shakhtar Donetsk to WIN vs Real Madrid @15.1. Other odds: 14.5
100 units at Fairlay on Copenhagen to WIN vs Man City @43.55. Other odds: 40.0
Units advantage: 60+145 =205




Sorry I couldn't be more descriptive, but believe me, in practice I bet quite a lot on low value (I'm think of Liverpool v League 1/2 cup ties at only 1.2x when they're playing their B team, shockingly poor value). It's the nature of the sports supporter to place bets on someone or a team they like, completely swallowed by bias.

I won't for example bet on Liverpool tonight at 1.35, sounds good but Rangers is a tough physical team, while Reds players are half struggling for form... 1.35 in simple terms is them winning 3 out of 4 games on the same lineup, just to break even. Something I can't even really calculate as the last competitive match against Scottish opponents was 20 years ago.  Can't see value (but on the other hand I'd bet on Rangers if I were able to bet against my own team!).

But yes, I definitely add picks here I think are much, much higher than average value. The biggest clue to me (but I have no science for this) is comparing on oddschecker, which uses fiat bookie odds. You can see the best odds from about 20 bookies there, and if you find something on P2P or with a price boost that's even 10% more than that, I'd call that value. Note that highest odds on oddschecker are usually promos with very small max bet usually so the average is a better sample.

Anyway, my odds comparison is the best among all crypto bookies I have, including price boosts, if any. They more or less take the same odds provider (Pinnacle) anyway, so it's really just juice that affects it.

Yes, this is a vague explanation - in theory, whenever we bet we think it's value. Otherwise, what's the point of betting if we don't think it's profitable. But apparently you can say that you add your picks to this thread if you think they have much higher than average value.
Liverpool have lost points again and it really looks like this is a pattern and not a "temporary" difficulty.

Haha yeah, I find myself so busy I'm not giving my own thread enough love. United can't win, for sure, that's also what my gut and technical analysis says. I actually watched them play a lot last season, and I missed their early games but even when they were winning (like vs Liverpool), you see that they are a very, very poor team. At best, bottom team of "Big 6".

But derby is derby and they beat both Liverpool and Arsenal by getting some weird fortune.


Very simple. If I think it has value. I know that's a very vague explanation, but for Nations League, I actually didn't really know what the value was, friendlies (yes, I don't care, it's a friendly) especially I see no value unless the odds are extremely high for a good team.

I made pretty good money in NL, on my first 3 bets, but they were on an acca on all favourites, and one big upset on Azerbaijan. But it was actually exact value to me (9/1) because they won 1 in last 9 games...!

I got over 9/1 for United too, I'm okay with that, made it a bit bigger with Liverpool leg... and we're already down 2 goals whoops

What algorithm do you use to add bets to this thread? During the Nations League games, I always thought that such a tournament with unmotivated teams where the favorites often lose should be good for you, but I did not see the betting reports.

By the way, it seems to me that the odds of Manchester United winning are underestimated. Manchester United are showing a game similar to last season, and Manchester City have clearly become stronger with the acquisition of Haaland. But bookmakers believe that Manchester City has remained at its level and Manchester United has strengthened.

Damn, that post was so long ago I didn't even remember it at first when rereading it:) That one hurt a lot.

I don't believe United can get something from City other than score a goal or two. As I was writing in PL pool topic, I don't see how United can even hope to stop Haaland. Martinez is missing a lot in constitution while Maguire is even worse option.

^ Tough luck huh Trofo. Damned Bayern, and I actually won a bet against them vs Augsburg, which I of course didn't put here.

Sorry, Nations League was never going to be on this list after previous failures, although funnily enough I made way more profit on 3 bets than in entire new league season so far. Strange? That's what the gods of fortune do to you...

Anyway, Manchester derby, always bet against City is my mantra especially with price boost, so we do a nice acca:

100 units at Sportsbet on United and Liverpool to WIN @11.92. Other odds: 11:20
Units advantage: 72

I am up with you today on this one. Bayern hurt Barcelona really badly in last couple of games and I am thinking revenge time today. Lewa should be full of confidence and can probably tell some stuff to Xavi how they should play against Bayern. Bayern on the other hand does not look their stellar self at the moment and this has value for sure. This one should be even odds for me 3.0-3.0-3.0 without margins for bookie.

On the other hand, we know how good Bayern can be and if biggest stage and opponent with a name does not make them better football then there is something seriously wrong there. They will also want to show Lewa that he should have stayed.

I have both to score on all serious tickets, that one should be a given and Barca ML on some more spicy tickets. Lot of money on the line for me today, keeping fingers crossed.

Huge losses on my last picks for UCL but we've got a cracker tomorrow night on the away teams and you've got to say, BVB surely have a chance if they blow away City early on. Go, Bellingham!

100 units at Sportsbet on BVB to WIN vs City @14.38. Other odds: 13.70
100 units at Sportsbet on Dinamo to WIN vs Milan @13.65. Other odds: 12.90

But let's not forget Barca... Lewie wants his revenge and I think Barca will get it for him. Super value for me above 4/1 so let's put double stakes!
200 units at Fairlay on Barca to WIN vs Bayern @4.06. Other odds: 3.85

Units advantage: 68 + 75 + 42(21x2) = 185

This season is definitely looking up, and I actually even somehow failed to mention I also bet against Leipzig (who're in the midst of having their worst league start in decades). That one was the biggest odds win too this season so far, shame!

Now Marseille and Rangers are the most interesting of tonight's games but perhaps Conte's too good in Europe, while Ajax have always been known to be brittle... so let's go for 2 bets, one bordering on ridiculous for a Barca upset.

100 units at Sportsbet on Rangers to WIN vs Ajax @7.20. Other odds: 7.00
100 units at Fairlay on Viktoria Plzen to WIN vs Barca @36.44. Other odds: 29.00

Units advantage: 764