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Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 10. (Read 38849 times)

hero member
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What algorithm do you use to add bets to this thread? During the Nations League games, I always thought that such a tournament with unmotivated teams where the favorites often lose should be good for you, but I did not see the betting reports.

By the way, it seems to me that the odds of Manchester United winning are underestimated. Manchester United are showing a game similar to last season, and Manchester City have clearly become stronger with the acquisition of Haaland. But bookmakers believe that Manchester City has remained at its level and Manchester United has strengthened.

Very simple. If I think it has value. I know that's a very vague explanation, but for Nations League, I actually didn't really know what the value was, friendlies (yes, I don't care, it's a friendly) especially I see no value unless the odds are extremely high for a good team.

I made pretty good money in NL, on my first 3 bets, but they were on an acca on all favourites, and one big upset on Azerbaijan. But it was actually exact value to me (9/1) because they won 1 in last 9 games...!

I got over 9/1 for United too, I'm okay with that, made it a bit bigger with Liverpool leg... and we're already down 2 goals whoops

Yes, this is a vague explanation - in theory, whenever we bet we think it's value. Otherwise, what's the point of betting if we don't think it's profitable. But apparently you can say that you add your picks to this thread if you think they have much higher than average value.
Liverpool have lost points again and it really looks like this is a pattern and not a "temporary" difficulty.
legendary
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Damn, that post was so long ago I didn't even remember it at first when rereading it:) That one hurt a lot.

I don't believe United can get something from City other than score a goal or two. As I was writing in PL pool topic, I don't see how United can even hope to stop Haaland. Martinez is missing a lot in constitution while Maguire is even worse option.

Haha yeah, I find myself so busy I'm not giving my own thread enough love. United can't win, for sure, that's also what my gut and technical analysis says. I actually watched them play a lot last season, and I missed their early games but even when they were winning (like vs Liverpool), you see that they are a very, very poor team. At best, bottom team of "Big 6".

But derby is derby and they beat both Liverpool and Arsenal by getting some weird fortune.

What algorithm do you use to add bets to this thread? During the Nations League games, I always thought that such a tournament with unmotivated teams where the favorites often lose should be good for you, but I did not see the betting reports.

By the way, it seems to me that the odds of Manchester United winning are underestimated. Manchester United are showing a game similar to last season, and Manchester City have clearly become stronger with the acquisition of Haaland. But bookmakers believe that Manchester City has remained at its level and Manchester United has strengthened.

Very simple. If I think it has value. I know that's a very vague explanation, but for Nations League, I actually didn't really know what the value was, friendlies (yes, I don't care, it's a friendly) especially I see no value unless the odds are extremely high for a good team.

I made pretty good money in NL, on my first 3 bets, but they were on an acca on all favourites, and one big upset on Azerbaijan. But it was actually exact value to me (9/1) because they won 1 in last 9 games...!

I got over 9/1 for United too, I'm okay with that, made it a bit bigger with Liverpool leg... and we're already down 2 goals whoops
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 629
^ Tough luck huh Trofo. Damned Bayern, and I actually won a bet against them vs Augsburg, which I of course didn't put here.

Sorry, Nations League was never going to be on this list after previous failures, although funnily enough I made way more profit on 3 bets than in entire new league season so far. Strange? That's what the gods of fortune do to you...
-skip-

What algorithm do you use to add bets to this thread? During the Nations League games, I always thought that such a tournament with unmotivated teams where the favorites often lose should be good for you, but I did not see the betting reports.

By the way, it seems to me that the odds of Manchester United winning are underestimated. Manchester United are showing a game similar to last season, and Manchester City have clearly become stronger with the acquisition of Haaland. But bookmakers believe that Manchester City has remained at its level and Manchester United has strengthened.
legendary
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^ Tough luck huh Trofo. Damned Bayern, and I actually won a bet against them vs Augsburg, which I of course didn't put here.

Anyway, Manchester derby, always bet against City is my mantra especially with price boost, so we do a nice acca:
Damn, that post was so long ago I didn't even remember it at first when rereading it:) That one hurt a lot.

I don't believe United can get something from City other than score a goal or two. As I was writing in PL pool topic, I don't see how United can even hope to stop Haaland. Martinez is missing a lot in constitution while Maguire is even worse option.
legendary
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^ Tough luck huh Trofo. Damned Bayern, and I actually won a bet against them vs Augsburg, which I of course didn't put here.

Sorry, Nations League was never going to be on this list after previous failures, although funnily enough I made way more profit on 3 bets than in entire new league season so far. Strange? That's what the gods of fortune do to you...

Anyway, Manchester derby, always bet against City is my mantra especially with price boost, so we do a nice acca:

100 units at Sportsbet on United and Liverpool to WIN @11.92. Other odds: 11:20
Units advantage: 72

Running advantage after 22 bets: +1964 (+72)
All-time cumulative: +85,728
Running units after 21 bets (4W|17L): +1,034 (-400)
legendary
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But let's not forget Barca... Lewie wants his revenge and I think Barca will get it for him. Super value for me above 4/1 so let's put double stakes!
200 units at Fairlay on Barca to WIN vs Bayern @4.06. Other odds: 3.85
I am up with you today on this one. Bayern hurt Barcelona really badly in last couple of games and I am thinking revenge time today. Lewa should be full of confidence and can probably tell some stuff to Xavi how they should play against Bayern. Bayern on the other hand does not look their stellar self at the moment and this has value for sure. This one should be even odds for me 3.0-3.0-3.0 without margins for bookie.

On the other hand, we know how good Bayern can be and if biggest stage and opponent with a name does not make them better football then there is something seriously wrong there. They will also want to show Lewa that he should have stayed.

I have both to score on all serious tickets, that one should be a given and Barca ML on some more spicy tickets. Lot of money on the line for me today, keeping fingers crossed.
legendary
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Huge losses on my last picks for UCL but we've got a cracker tomorrow night on the away teams and you've got to say, BVB surely have a chance if they blow away City early on. Go, Bellingham!

100 units at Sportsbet on BVB to WIN vs City @14.38. Other odds: 13.70
100 units at Sportsbet on Dinamo to WIN vs Milan @13.65. Other odds: 12.90

But let's not forget Barca... Lewie wants his revenge and I think Barca will get it for him. Super value for me above 4/1 so let's put double stakes!
200 units at Fairlay on Barca to WIN vs Bayern @4.06. Other odds: 3.85

Units advantage: 68 + 75 + 42(21x2) = 185

Running advantage after 21 bets: +185
All-time cumulative: +85,656
Running units after 18 bets (4W|14L): +1,434 (-200)
legendary
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This season is definitely looking up, and I actually even somehow failed to mention I also bet against Leipzig (who're in the midst of having their worst league start in decades). That one was the biggest odds win too this season so far, shame!

Now Marseille and Rangers are the most interesting of tonight's games but perhaps Conte's too good in Europe, while Ajax have always been known to be brittle... so let's go for 2 bets, one bordering on ridiculous for a Barca upset.

100 units at Sportsbet on Rangers to WIN vs Ajax @7.20. Other odds: 7.00
100 units at Fairlay on Viktoria Plzen to WIN vs Barca @36.44. Other odds: 29.00

Units advantage: 764

Running advantage after 18 bets: +1707 (+764)
All-time cumulative: +85,471
Running units after 16 bets (4W|12L): +1,634 (+420)
legendary
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100 units at Sportsbet on Zagreb to WIN vs Chelsea @8.20. Other odds: You can boost at SB to get 8.60

Congratulations on another win! This season is off to a great start for you.
And I got another ruined multibet on the very first event - this trend is starting to press me  Grin Probably soon I will be able to charge a fee so that, at the request of the haters, I add certain teams to my multibets, hahaha.
Let's see how the rest of the favorites perform (I reentered in multibet, of course, with the exception of Borussia).

Haha thank you, Chelsea is my moneymaker this season (didn't enter them here for many picks but wow they're just an amazing team to bet against, thank you Tuchel.

Now I wish I don't act like this after winning but one last bet before game starts. Couldn't resist haha.

100 units at Fairlay on Juventus to WIN vs PSG @10.20. Other odds: 9.20

I'll calculate all odds tomorrow.
legendary
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100 units at Sportsbet on Zagreb to WIN vs Chelsea @8.20. Other odds: You can boost at SB to get 8.60

Congratulations on another win! This season is off to a great start for you.
And I got another ruined multibet on the very first event - this trend is starting to press me  Grin Probably soon I will be able to charge a fee so that, at the request of the haters, I add certain teams to my multibets, hahaha.
Let's see how the rest of the favorites perform (I reentered in multibet, of course, with the exception of Borussia).
legendary
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^ I know man, life in football is about getting let down. Get used to it, smile, and be happy, right? Haha.

So many good odds tonight, and I guess I might as well throw money away?

100 units at Fairlay on Celtic to WIN vs Real Madrid @5.58. Other odds: 4.80

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla to WIN vs City @10.46. Other odds: 9.80

100 units at Sportsbet on Zagreb to WIN vs Chelsea @8.20. Other odds: You can boost at SB to get 8.60

Units advantage: 78+66-40 = 104

Running advantage after 15 bets: +843 (+104)
All-time cumulative: +83,967
Running units after 12 bets (3W|9L): +1,214 (-100)
legendary
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~
Liverpool, on the other hand, asking too much to put them on an acca?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham, Liverpool to WIN @9.20. Other odds: 8.90
Units advantage: 30

Running advantage after 12 bets: +739 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +83,863
Running units after 11 bets (3W|8L): +1,314 (-100)

It's none of my business  Smiley but you're definitely biased (in a good way) about Liverpool. It seems to me that now it is worth either betting on its rivals or avoid betting in games with its participation - a large dispersion of results, so only bets on large odds (underdogs) will have a chance to be profitable.

By the way i saw your post about Union Berlin vs Bayern. Look at this:



 Cry Grin It looks like these teams have let us both down.
legendary
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Monaco, really, they should have won. Right. So my last two bets against Chelsea have been hugely successful, Leeds and then Southampton just nicking points off an absolutely dire Chelsea... so I might as well jinx it by putting them on this tip thread. Hammers have to find a way to win, and there's no better time to pick than now.

Liverpool, on the other hand, asking too much to put them on an acca?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham, Liverpool to WIN @9.20. Other odds: 8.90
Units advantage: 30

Running advantage after 12 bets: +739 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +83,863
Running units after 11 bets (3W|8L): +1,314 (-100)
legendary
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Far from hitting, disappointing pick. Didn't even get the upsets competition right as more upsets happened in EFL trophy (Fulham I recall was the highest).

Still, be glad I didn't waste money on Palace last night, thought I'd missed an opp at HT but City as usual...

Instead, let's look to topple PSG, they look scary but Monaco always has a chance I feel.

100 units at Fairlay on Monaco to WIN vs PSG @11.95. Other odds: 10.80
Units advantage: 115

Running advantage after 11 bets: +709 (+115)
All-time cumulative: +83,833
Running units after 10 bets (3W|7L): +1,414 (-100)
legendary
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Yup, I did regret it, but Newcastle really did almost take me home? Maybe next time I go for HT wins again, since City is City!

Small punt today but I've got an eye on some Europa League business...

100 units at Sportsbet on Austria Wien to WIN vs Fenerbahce @7.60. Other odds: 7.10
Units advantage: 50
Bet ID: 6307646bbce7658c57d44714

Running advantage after 10 bets: +594 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +83,718
Running units after 9 bets (3W|6L): +1,514 (-200)
legendary
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Well, that went well! Leeds definitely deserved the lead at half time, great showing all around, but were probably lucky to score with their sole effort in the second half after a Blues onslaught.

I'll regret this later, but boosted by this win, let's go for another win in tonight's 2 games involving defending champions.

100 units at Fairlay on Newcastle to WIN vs City @8.35. Other odds: 7.20
100 units at Fairlay on Bochum to WIN vs Bayern @13.00. Other odds: 12.50
Total units advantage: 165

Running advantage after 9 bets: +544 (+165)
All-time cumulative: +83,668
Running units after 7 bets (3W|4L): +1,714 (+539)
legendary
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Simple me again goes for an upset, Chelsea are too good probably but I just have a feeling Leeds are still primed and energetic enough in early season to take the game to the Blues, who're without Kante.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds to WIN vs Chelsea @6.39. Other odds: 5.90
Units advantage: 49

Running advantage after 7 bets: +379 (+49)
All-time cumulative: +83,503
Running units after 6 bets (2W|4L): +1,175 (-100)
legendary
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Not your day so far and Conte was on touchline with players. Not sure how it works with manager bans, did he even got red card in last game? I sow the incident but did not see if they got carded after that.

First game on my ticket passed with this hard fought Spurs victory, 5 more to go today. Now it becomes time for some both to score games.

It looks like they both got red cards after the skirmish at the end of the game. But the punishment in the form of a ban was imposed later after the consideration of the case by the football association of England. It is interesting that Tuchel is found to be the main culprit and will pay a fine of 35 thousand pounds, and Conte only 15 thousand pounds. I don't know if this was the reason, but today's game turned out to be unexpectedly difficult for Tottenham.

Yeah cause apparently Tuchel was the one who clenched at Conte's hand when they "shook"... not that I paid much attention. They both got red carded, that's what the reports I remember reading said, so assumed they'd both be banned, so I guess I don't know the rules so much, if Conte was with the players.

Shouldn't have assumed.

BTW I was toying with Werder Bremen, but decided against it only because 8/1 odds didn't come. Shame!
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 629
Not your day so far and Conte was on touchline with players. Not sure how it works with manager bans, did he even got red card in last game? I sow the incident but did not see if they got carded after that.

First game on my ticket passed with this hard fought Spurs victory, 5 more to go today. Now it becomes time for some both to score games.

It looks like they both got red cards after the skirmish at the end of the game. But the punishment in the form of a ban was imposed later after the consideration of the case by the football association of England. It is interesting that Tuchel is found to be the main culprit and will pay a fine of 35 thousand pounds, and Conte only 15 thousand pounds. I don't know if this was the reason, but today's game turned out to be unexpectedly difficult for Tottenham.
legendary
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Simple guy that I am, I see Spurs could have a tiny chance of losing their way without Conte on the touchline? Who knows? Game in 30.
Not your day so far and Conte was on touchline with players. Not sure how it works with manager bans, did he even got red card in last game? I sow the incident but did not see if they got carded after that.

First game on my ticket passed with this hard fought Spurs victory, 5 more to go today. Now it becomes time for some both to score games.
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