Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 64.

buwaytress

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Tough 1-0 wins for both our Concacaf/Cup of Nations legs but we folded on Rostov's win against Spartak (shame on you guys from the capital haha).

Copa's got the Brazil game but I don't see them even drawing to Paraguay, not after they finally got their juices flowing in their last group game. So we'll stick with Cup of Nations and a U21 game:

Game 1: Senegal-Algeria. Senegal WIN @2.08. BCR odds: 2.08
Game 2: Kenya-Tanzania. Kenya WIN @2.34. BCR odds: 2.30
Game 3: Germany-Romania (U21). Germany WIN @1.58. BCR odds: 1.57
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.6901. BCR parlay: 7.5108

Odds advantage: 2.39%
Units advantage: 17.93

Running advantage after 3 bets: +49.55 (+17.93)
All-time cumulative: +12,241.87
Running units after 2 bets (0W|2L): -200 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Typical. The lowest odds failed to hit. Ghana actually did well, came back from a goal down to lead 2-1, and then just somehow managed to get a player sent off, then it all went downhill from there. Benin got the equaliser and Ghana never looked the same.

Such a shame that the Dutch girls got a last-min penalty to win for us.

We'll take a Concacaf/Cup of Nations parlay, with a friendly in Russia. BCR doesn't have the lines for those club friendlies so we'll assume they are at par.

Game 1: Nigeria vs Guinea. Nigeria WIN @1.96. BCR odds: 1.98
Game 2: Panama vs USA. USA WIN @1.54. BCR odds: 1.51
Game 3: Rostov vs Spartak Moscow. Spartak WIN @2.04. BCR odds: 2.04
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.1575. BCR parlay: 6.0991

Odds advantage: 0.96%
Units advantage: 5.84

Running advantage after 2 bets: +31.62 (+5.84)
All-time cumulative: +12,223.94
Running units after 1 bet (0W|1L): -100 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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New day in a new "season" but pretty much same tactics.

Japan did well I think but they shouldn't have conceded the goal. Ecuador made it a scrappy match in the end and Japan paid for profligacy so we see both Asian teams knocked out.

We try our luck with women's world cup, I think the taller girls will triumph, and parlaying with one of the dark horses in the Cup of Nations... we'll be backing the favourites.

Game 1: Italy vs China. Italy WIN @1.97. BCR odds: 1.94
Game 2: Netherlands vs Japan. Netherlands WIN @1.78. BCR odds: 1.74
Game 3: Ghana vs Benin. Ghana WIN @1.72. BCR odds: 1.71
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.0313. BCR parlay: 5.7723

Odds advantage: 4.47%
Units advantage: 25.78

Running advantage after 1 bet: +25.78
All-time cumulative: +12,218.1

buwaytress

legendary

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Note: As alerted yesterday, 1 unit will now be adjusted to 500 satoshi = BTC 0.000005. This decision due to BTC price. A 100 unit bet today is still worth more in USD than a 100 unit bet when we started the season. I don't expect this to change again until BTC either loses 50% in value or gains 100%.

Final Numbers for Season 1 (5 September 2018 to 24 June 2019):
1. Starting bankroll: 10,000 units
2. Ending bankroll: 18,176.81 units (81.76% profit)
3. Total Bets: 350 (75W|275L)
4. Total Units Gained from Odds Advantage: 12,192.32 (An average of 34.83 units per bet!)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2800

Merit: 3443

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Qatar flopped at the end. Messi still could not get on the scoresheet but Argentina won't bother with how they progressed, since Aguero finally got in on the goal action.

We take yet another underdog bet with the Asians today, hoping for Japan to somehow beat Ecuador for a place in the QFs. Pair that with a hope of Suarez getting another brace en route to Uruguay beating Chile maybe?

Game 1: Chile vs Uruguay. Uruguay WIN @2.26. Betcoin odds: 2.24
Game 2: Ecuador vs Japan. Japan WIN @3.22. Betcoin odds: 3.19
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @7.3038. Betcoin parlay: 7.1456

Odds advantage: 2.21%
Units advantage: 15.82

Running advantage after 350 bets: +12,192.32 (+15.82 units)

Running units after 349 bets (75W|274L): +8,276.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2800

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As of tomorrow, and until further notice, the amount per unit of betting will be updated from 1000 satoshi to 500 satoshi (BTC 0.00001 to 0.000005). This is mainly because, when we started I intended each bet to only be around $5. It is a somewhat arbitrary figure, but the whole point of this thread always was to show what would happen over the long term if you bet choosing the best odds/lowest margins.

I will provide the final numbers tomorrow, and update the OP as well.

Moving forward, I will still use units, since that's the only thing that matters but I will start from a clean slate again and using the updated amount. I know I meant to do this only at every start of the season but the season has practically ended, and Bitcoin price has really changed quickly. Since the end of season really is for me the EPL and this also gives us the opportunity to close the "season" at 350 bets, I think it's timely.

It will still ensure we end the season in over 8000 units profit (which is 80% of the bankroll) even if we lose today's pick, which I'll put down shortly.

buwaytress

legendary

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Uganda did a fantastic upset. Their first finals win in 40 years apparently! Too bad for us, Aussie girls had to wait till the last 15 minutes to change the game, and of if it weren't for VAR we might have had a penalty to secure us some salvation for our flagging spirits after going down 170 units from our high Sad

Anyway, no use looking back in anger. I have but the one underdog I want to win tonight, the guys I've been backing for so long. Come on Almoez, make this your moment!

100 units on Qatar to WIN vs Argentina @15.3226. BCR odds: 12.21

Odds advantage: 25.49%
Units advantage: 311.26

Running advantage after 349 bets: +12,176.5 (+311.26 units)

Running units after 348 bets (75W|273L): +8,376.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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So Chile won as expected but the Croatians weren't able to dent the French and lost to Dembele's goal. Not that a draw would have served our purposes anyway.

I will pick Uganda as an upset in the Africa Cup of Nations, parlay that with Aussie women's win over Norway and pad it up a little with Brazil to just nick it over Peru.

Game 1: DR Conga vs Uganda. Uganda WIN @3.57. Betcoin: 3.66
Game 2: Norway vs Australia. Australia WIN @2.18. Betcoin: 2.04
Game 3: Peru vs Brazil. Brazil WIN @1.37. Betcoin: 1.39
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @10.665. Betcoin parlay: 10.38

Odds advantage: 2.75%
Units advantage: 28.5

Running advantage after 348 bets: +11,865.24 (+28.5 units)

Running units after 347 bets (75W|272L): +8,476.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Boo Kiwi girls, you made me pay dearly for this you know? And you still needed an own goal to make the scoreline more respectable, but credit to the Cameroonians. Good thing I stayed away from Copa too, though, I would have been heartbroken to back Japan and only get the draw!

There's actually only one game I feel for which is Chile, and this is probably a dumb bet but since it's not even 2/1, I'll parlay it with an unlikely win for the Croatian youth against France (U21).

Game 1: Ecuador vs Chile. Chile WIN @1.85. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 2: France vs Croatia. Croatia WIN @7.53. Betcoin odds: 7.41
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @13.9659. Betcoin parlay: 13.9308

Turns out there's not much of an odd difference but anyway:

Odds advantage: 0.25%
Units advantage: 3.51

Running advantage after 347 bets: +11,836.74 (+3.51 units)

Running units after 346 bets (75W|271L): +8,576.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Wow I'm really eating up my profits towards the end of the season, Copa especially has been killing me in every game, the draws especially are something of a headache, not to mention Argentina's awful performances so far.

I'll take a break from them and go for Deportivo la Coruna (which we're backing to make a return to La Liga) to win their promotion play off. They finished below Mallorca but call it sentimentalism, they have got a lot of firepower too...

Parlay it with tricky games in Women's World Cup for the Dutch and Kiwis to navigate, but they've been good to us in previous games so here we go!

Game 1: Deportivo vs Mallorca. Depor WIN @2.01. BCR odds: 1.98
Game 2: Netherlands vs Canada. Netherlands WIN @2.71. BCR odds: 2.64
Game 3: Cameroon vs New Zealand. NZ WIN @2.14. BCR odds: 2.14
100 units parlay at Betcoin @11.6568. BCR parlay: 11.1862

Odds advantage: 4.21%
Units advantage: 47.06

Running advantage after 346 bets: +11,833.23 (+47.06 units)

Running units after 345 bets (75W|270L): +8,676.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2800

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If it's any comfort, betting on a Brazil win would have lost the bet anyway. I don't have much time to research tonight's games, but I'm going to take the favourites in the Copa and parlay it with what I'm sure is a Women's certainty for England... at 2/1 it looks really good value to me, considering the Japan women's last game was atrocious.

I'll return later and see if Qatar's odds jump. They're unlikely to win against such tough opponents but maybe if the pitch favours them...

Game 1: Argentina vs Paraguay. Argentina WIN @1.51. Betcoin odds: 1.49
Game 2: Colombia vs Qatar. Colombia WIN @1.32. Betcoin odds: 1.30
Game 3: England vs Japan. England WIN @2.16. Betcoin odds: 2.08
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.2764. Betcoin parlay: 4.0289

Odds advantage: 6.14%
Units advantage: 24.75

Running advantage after 345 bets: +11,786.17 (+24.75 units)

Running units after 344 bets (75W|269L): +8,776.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2800

Merit: 3443

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Wow did Japan lose big. Didn't watch or read the reports, a bit pissed with the result but the stats actually show that it was an even attack and possession. Guess you just had better finishers with the Chileans. Maybe their last win wasn't exactly a one off thing either.

Women's World Cup have strangely been as predictable as the bookies have put it, other than a couple of draws. I should probably stay away from predicting upsets, but let's see if the Italians can sneak a win past Brazil, and parlay that with a CONCACAF win for Panama.

There are some other huge payouts for upsets, notably Jamaica but let's hold our horses for the time being until we get a better picture.

Game 1: Italy vs Brazil. Italy WIN @3.15. BCR odds: 3.11
Game 2: Panama vs Trinidad & Tobago. Panama WIN @1.98. BCR odds: 1.91
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.237. BCR parlay: 5.9401

Odds advantage: 5.00%
Units advantage: 29.69

Running advantage after 344 bets: +11,761.42 (+29.69 units)

Running units after 343 bets (75W|268L): +8,876.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2800

Merit: 3443

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Last night was upsetting for a few reasons. A penalty in 2nd minute. And then a lot of pretty poor refereeing decisions cut down so many attacks that Qatar had. They were a lot more physical and I think Paraguay were good actors. 2-2 is probably a fair result but if only for better finishing and the Qataris not getting stuck on that pitch... Anyway, another darkhorse tonight with even more odds stacked against them but I'm going with a single Japan WIN.

I think my only regret for this game is that I didn't sweep up any of the offers on Fairlay yesterday at a full 100 units more than what I got today. But still at over 8/1, it's still a fair 11% more than the closest competitor at Betcoin. I know Japan are capable too, so this will be worth watching.

100 units on Japan to WIN vs Chile @8.1977. Betcoin odds: 7.32

Odds advantage: 11.99%
Units advantage: 87.77

Running advantage after 343 bets: +11,731.73 (+88.77 units)

Running units after 342 bets (75W|267L): +8,976.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2800

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Shocking. Messi can't bring Argentina to win. And Venezuela couldn't bring Peru to its knees. I'm ashamed I couldn't pick the upset when the statistics suggested they were very much on the cards.

I really like Qatar and they did lose soundly to the Brazilians in the friendly pre-Copa, but Almoez Ali should score today. Parlay that with an Egypt friendly win and we're on our way.

Game 1: Paraguay vs Qatar. Qatar WIN @5.26. BCR odds: 5.32
Game 2: Egypt vs Guinea. Egypt WIN @1.49. BCR odds: 1.44
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.8374. BCR parlay: 7.643

Odds advantage: 2.74%
Units advantage: 19.44

Running advantage after 342 bets: +11,642.96 (+19.44 units)

Running units after 341 bets (75W|266L): +9,076.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2800

Merit: 3443

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Serbia, you almost did it. Held on splendidly, actually dared to show some verve, and the Swiss were running out of ideas and getting carded. Then they had to give away the goal in 89th minute. Always feel sad at these kinds of results. Still an upset, but not the one we bet on.

Copa America is here, we neglected the opener but I'm really looking forward to the matches tonight. We'll take an early slight upset with Venezuela and then parlay that with a Messi opener win, and an Indonesian win in a friendly against Vanuatu.

Game 1: Indonesia vs Vanuatu. Indo WIN @ BCR odds: 1.25
Game 2: Venezuela vs Peru. Venezuela WIN @ BCR odds: 3.24
Game 3: Argentina vs Colombia. Argentia WIN @ BCR odds: 2.17
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.3344. BCR parlay: 8.811

Odds advantage: 5.94%
Units advantage: 52.34

Running advantage after 341 bets: +11,623.52 (+52.34 units)

Running units after 340 bets (75W|265L): +9,176.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Yikes, scary team from China. Physical disadvantage totally wiped out by the way they just ran and attacked S Africa. I felt so afraid for them, to their credit only lost 1-0. But still, damn, women's football. Now let's see if the Serbian women are better than the men's in their round:

Game 1: Serbia vs Switzerland. Serbia WIN @4.91. Betcoin odds: 4.69
Game 2: Japan vs Scotland. Japan WIN @1.65. Betcoin odds: 1.66
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @8.0983. Betcoin parlay: 7.7854

Odds advantage: 4.02%
Units advantage: 31.29

Running advantage after 340 bets: +11,571.18 (+31.29 units)

Running units after 339 bets (75W|264L): +9,276.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Well, no surprises in Women's World Cup, except that the scorelines weren't bigger. Crazy mistake in the French game, never saw an own goal like that at international stage, but heh.

So, because there has been not a single upset (I almost got it on 1 match when Japan were held to a scoreless draw!) I will bet on one happening today. Go South Africa! They should at least have physical advantage, not that I've seen very good headers from women's games.

100 units on South Africa to WIN vs China @10.41. BCR odds: 9.39

Odds advantage: 10.86%
Units advantage: 102

Running advantage after 339 bets: +11,539.89 (+102 units)

Running units after 338 bets (75W|263L): +9,376.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Incredible. I doubled down on a bet, Cambodia actually did win the game in the last 5 minutes after the Pakistan lead... but then our Turkish U21s contrived to get our midfield sent off... and then conceding the goal from the foul in the same last minute of 1st half injury time. Actually equalised after the break with 10 men but then Kosovo's number's were too much.

Shame.

Spain have played quite well in Women's World Cup. Germans are the favourites but I wonder if their battering ram will work today so Spanish girls parlayed with a return to the La Liga for an old favourite of mine, Deportivo La Coruna. They must win their playoff semi against Malaga today for a chance, so let's hope!

Game 1: Germany vs Spain (W). Spain WIN @3.63. Betcoin: 3.58
Game 2: Deportivo la Coruna vs Malaga. Deportivo WIN @2.09. Betcoin: 2.09
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @7.5867. Betcoin parlay: 7.4822

Odds advantage: 1.40%
Units advantage: 10.45

Running advantage after 338 bets: +11,437.89 (+10.45 units)

Running units after 337 bets (75W|262L): +9,476.81 (-200 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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What happens when we go safe? We lose anyway. What's the lesson? I suck at predicting Euro. It's been a tough series of games so far for the underdogs, with the big guns stamping their authority early on. Does it mean we're in for more shocks? Maybe.

But I'll pull away for an exotic mix of games today, starting with a Cambodia upset over Pakistan, and then we'll parlay it up nicely with a South Korea win over Iran + Turkey youth to overcome Kosovo youth. Tough mix but I like my odds.

Game 1: Cambodia vs Pakistan. Cambodia WIN @5.37. Betcoin odds: 5.09
Game 2: South Korea vs Iran. South Korea WIN @2.34. Betcoin odds: 2.32
Game 3: Turkey U21 vs Kosovo U21. Turkey WIN @2.08. Betcoin odds: 2.03
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @26.1369. Betcoin parlay: 23.97

Odds advantage: 9.04%
Units advantage: 216.69

Edit - ok so the parlay above was ruined by South Korea failing to beat Iran in a 1-1 draw, but I'm still so confident on Cambodia and Turkey -- meanwhile, the Betcoin bookies have raised the odds, so I'm taking another bet on the 2 remaining legs, same as above but on different odds:
Cambodia (5.43 vs BCR 5.39) and Turkey U21 (2.17 vs BCR 2.11) to win: Betcoin parlay @11.7831 vs BCR parlay 11.3729
Odds advantage: 3.61%
Units advantage: 41.02

Running advantage after 337 bets: +11,427.44 (+257.71 units)

Running units after 335 bets (75W|260L): +9,676.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Wow what an underwhelming set of games yesterday. Credit to Portugal, they showed enough intent and ambition to deserve it. The Oranjes look so much like Ajax at times. Some stirring of verve but without the daring to accomplish.

Tough call in EURO but I'll go a bit safe today and pick Bulgaria to beat Kosovo (who were lucky in their previous draw). I think Austria should also just edge out N Macedonia.

Game 1: Bulgaria vs Kosovo. Bulgaria WIN @2.51. Betcoin odds: 2.51
Game 2: Austria vs North Macedonia. Austria WIN @2.28. Betcoin odds: 2.23
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @5.7228. Betcoin parlay: 5.60

Odds advantage: 2.19%
Units advantage: 12.28

Running advantage after 335 bets: +11,169.73 (+12.28 units)

Running units after 334 bets (75W|259L): +9,776.81 (-100 units)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 64. (Read 38849 times)