Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 66.

buwaytress

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One game too far. Ghana ended the half looking like the shitty side but they upped the tempo and rained down hell on Tunisia in the 2nd half but conceded because of their eagerness. Nicked the own goal in injury time but condemned us anyway to a loss.

What can we do, parlays are cruel.

Champions League qualifications happening today, real exciting. Bound to be a few upsets, and my pick is for the Romanians to spring an upset over the Kazakh champs. Parlay that with Celtic to beat Sarajevo and we're on our way.

Game 1: FK Sarajevo-Celtic. Celtic WIN @1.63. BCR odds: 1.6
Game 2: FC Astana-FC Cfr 1907 Cluj. Cluj WIN @4.82. BCR odds: 4.3
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.8566. BCR parlay: 6.88

Odds advantage: 14.19%
Units advantage: 97.66

Lets also take another upset from Armenia and pair it with a favourite:
Game 1: Suduva Marijampole-FK Crvena Zvezda. Zvezda WIN @1.46. BCR odds: 1.44
Game 2: FC Ararat-Armenia vs AIK. Ararat WIN @5.86. BCR odds: 5.12
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.5556. BCR parlay: 7.3728

Odds advantage: 16.04%
Units advantage: 118.28

Running advantage after 17 bets: +524.87 (+215.94)
All-time cumulative: +12,849.39
Running units after 15 bets (3W|12L): +204.87 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Wow. USA only won 2-0 but it was actually murder on the pitch last night. I knew the Dutch had nowhere the depth of the Americans, but still they're reigning European champions and they were just too far behind in quality.

On the other hand, our friendly pick won. India actually finished at HT 2-0... so I thought I'd lost that bet. Couldn't find any commentary but Tajiks found a way to score FOUR in second half, so we got ourselves a nice tidy win.

I'll take a parlay on the favourites today in AFCON along with a Syria win over DPRK (come on Syria, you haven't won in such a long time!).

Game 1: Mali vs Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast [email protected]. BCR odds: 2.34
Game 2: Ghana vs Tunisia. Ghana WIN @2.45. BCR odds: 2.41
Game 3: Syria vs DPRK. Syria [email protected]. BCR odds: n/a so assume 2.15
100 units parlay at Betcoin @12.4313. BCR parlay: 12.1247

Odds advantage: 2.53%
Units advantage: 30.66

Running advantage after 15 bets: +427.21 (+30.66)
All-time cumulative: +12,633.45
Running units after 14 bets (3W|11L): +304.87 (+312 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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It wasn't easy to see Salah and his team go down, they were a favourite to win, but we proved to be right about the physicality of the boys from the South, and they deservedly went thought, even though it needed an 85th lone goal to clinch it. This is how big upsets are won! And we're now almost back at original bankroll after 12 bets heh.

Now England were only given a 4/1 chance against the Americans in the semis, but I actually feel the Dutch are more capable of an upset, so at over 7/1, I like my odds. Someone needs to beat USA once!

100 units at Bitcoinrush for Netherlands to WIN vs USA @7.57. Betcoin odds: 6.93

Odds advantage: 9.24%
Units advantage: 64

And every time India play football, I expect them to lose. They're a cricket nation guys! So let's take a punt on Tajiks beating them in a friendly. 100 units at Betcoin for Tajikistan to WIN vs India @5.12. BCR odds: 4.98

Odds advantage: 2.8%
Units advantage: 14

Running advantage after 14 bets: +396.55 (+78)
All-time cumulative: +12,602.79
Running units after 12 bets (2W|10L): -7.13 (+628 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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This could have gone either way really, Wahda weren't going to lose, but then Twente also seemed like they were happy for the draw, which was the outcome we eventually got. Guess that's what we get for trying to play it on friendlies.

Now my heart's all the way for Salah tonight but I wonder if all the attention and pressure might get to them the way it did Morocco? I think so... so here's our single for today. I might hedge it later but we'll see.

100 units at Bitcoinrush on South Africa to WIN vs Egypt @7.28. Betcoin odds: 7.20

Odds advantage: 1.11%
Units advantage: 8

Running advantage after 12 bets: +318.55 (+8)
All-time cumulative: +12,524.79
Running units after 11 bets (1W|10L): -635.13 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Damn Rooney got a yellow, had to be careful, and then DC got themselves a man down. Not that Dallas were easy, 10 shots to the 1. Bookies know their shit, after all.

I'm going for two friendlies today, and then maybe do a selection for AFCON later on, when I got my time together!

Game 1: FC Twente Enschede-AL Wahda FC (UAE). Al Wahda WIN @3.52. BCR odds: 3.49
Game 2: FC Viktoria Plzen-FC Ufa. Viktoria WIN @1.65. BCR odds: 1.64
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.808. BCR parlay: 5.7236

Odds advantage: 1.47%
Units advantage: 8.44

Running advantage after 11 bets: +310.55 (+8.44)
All-time cumulative: +12,516.79
Running units after 10 bets (1W|9L): -535.13 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Incredible game by Peru. I bet on Chile thinking their aging boys will get them through, but no one counted on the Peruvians smashing 3 home. And to think, I even made a hedge prediction of 0-0 in a betting pool. Well done Peru. I also bombed on Netherlands (they did win AET but full time was scoreless).

I'm going to go into a rare foray into American football (or soccer heh). DC Utd look good value for me at over 4/1 despite their form and standings (Rooney's incredible goal must surely give them confidence) and I'll parlay with what should be a standard LA Galaxy win over Toronto.

Game 1: FC Dallas-DC United. DC WIN @4.63. BCR odds: 4.65
Game 2: Los Angeles Galaxy-Toronto FC. LA @IN @1.84. BCR odds: 1.8
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.5192. BCR parlay: 8.370

Odds advantage: 1.78%
Units advantage: 14.92

Running advantage after 10 bets: +302.11 (+14.92)
All-time cumulative: +12,508.35
Running units after 9 bets (1W|8L): -435.13 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Mali got us our win, but USA still managed the slim victory despite not playing at their best. I suppose I shouldn't have taken my chances with the Lionesses, women's WC has been extremely dry for upsets.

Bearing that in mind, we pick the Dutch women to prove the bookies right, and parlay that with Chile's aging team to somehow crawl over the finish line against Peru, who really shouldn't provide any threat. Just please let this not be another penalty shootout.

Game 1: Netherlands vs Sweden. Netherlands WIN @2.07. BCR odds: 2.04
Game 2: Chile vs Peru. Chile WIN @1.92. BCR odds: 1.88
100 units parlay at Betcoin @3.9744. BCR parlay: 3.8352

Odds advantage: 3.63%
Units advantage: 13.92

Running advantage after 9 bets: +287.19 (+13.92)
All-time cumulative: +12,493.43
Running units after 8 bets (1W|7L): -335.13 (-100 units)

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Ah, finally, the first win of our second season. Senegal and Algeria won easily. Mane had to miss a penalty and keep it to the second half, while Algeria did all the work in the first half, but the same 3-0 result put it all to bed. Morocco, our toughest leg, needed a last-minute goal for the win, but we'll take it.

I'm going to choose an England upset over the Americans tonight in the Women's World Cup, and let's parlay that with a Mali win at the Cup of Nations.
Game 1: England vs USA. England WIN @4.57. Betcoin: 4.01
Game 2: Angola vs Mali. Mali WIN @2.32. Betcoin: 2.29
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @10.6024. Betcoin parlay: 9.18

Odds advantage: 15.5%
Units advantage: 142.24

Running advantage after 8 bets: +287.19 (+142.24)
All-time cumulative: +12,479.51
Running units after 7 bets (1W|6L): -235.13 (+364.87 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Oh curses, how on earth did Nigeria manage to do that? Been a while since the islanders caused that kind of upset, though I probably should have paid attention to how the bookies did that one up. Old powerhouse fading, Nigeria maybe.

I'll go for all the favourites in today's Africa Cup of Nations. Algeria and Senegal are my picks for the tourney, and I think Morocco will be too tough for South Africa, even with their physical advantage.

Game 1: Kenya-Senegal. Senegal WIN @1.45. BCR odds: 1.44
Game 2: Tanzania-Algeria. Algeria WIN @1.40. BCR odds: 1.38
Game 3: South Africa-Morocco. Morocco WIN @2.29. BCR odds: 2.32
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.6487. BCR parlay: 4.602

Odds advantage: 1.01%
Units advantage: 4.67

Running advantage after 7 bets: +144.95 (+4.67)
All-time cumulative: +12,337.27
Running units after 6 bets (0W|6L): -600 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Typical. We won the toughest leg and then the other 2 just drew. In fact, every game in Copa and Cup of Nations DREW last night, so I'd have been losing every combination possible since I never bet on draws (come on guys, what's up?).

I'm going to go all Cup of Nations today, lots of exciting matches. I'll bet on Egypt and the Flying Eagles to win easily, but also on DR Congo to make up for their shock loss to Uganda.

Game 1: Uganda-Egypt. Egypt WIN @1.76. BCR odds: 1.73
Game 2: Zimbabwe-Congo DR. Congo WIN @2.48. BCR odds: 2.44
Game 3: Madagascar-Nigeria. Nigeria WIN @1.92. BCR odds: 1.93
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.3804. BCR parlay: 8.129

Odds advantage: 3.09%
Units advantage: 25.14

Running advantage after 6 bets: +140.28 (+25.14)
All-time cumulative: +12,332.6
Running units after 5 bets (0W|5L): -500 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Good timing for Argentina to turn up, and the holders Chile also managed to scrape through on penalties, Alexis Sanchez might just be the only Man Utd player to end up with a medal before the end of next season if Chile goes all the way!

3 games from 3 tourneys today, Concacaf, Copa and Womens WC.

Game 1: Uruguay vs Peru. Uruguay WIN @1.77. BCR odds: 1.74
Game 2: Italy vs Netherlands. Netherlands WIN @1.94. BCR odds: 1.92
Game 3: Mexico vs Costa Rica. Mexico WIN @1.43. BCR odds: 1.44
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.9103. BCR parlay: 4.8107

Odds advantage: 2.07%
Units advantage: 9.96

Running advantage after 5 bets: +115.14 (+9.96)
All-time cumulative: +12,307.46
Running units after 4 bets (0W|4L): -400 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Tough game the Senegalese had after all, I knew Algeria were a good team, but wasn't expecting the boys in green to run aground on their defences, especially not Mane who looked rather forlorn at times up there.

We'll revert back to the Copa tonight. Venezuela used to be the whipping boys but these days are pretty solid, so can we count on Messi and co to underwhelm again, while backing the Colombians to outmuscle Chile?

Game 1: Venezuela vs Argentina. Venezuela WIN @7.03. Betcoin odds: 6.78
Game 2: Colombia vs Chile. Colombia WIN @2.21. Betcoin odds: 2.21
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @15.5363. Betcoin parlay: 14.98

Odds advantage: 3.69%
Units advantage: 55.63

Running advantage after 4 bets: +105.18 (+55.63)
All-time cumulative: +12,297.5
Running units after 3 bets (0W|3L): -300 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Tough 1-0 wins for both our Concacaf/Cup of Nations legs but we folded on Rostov's win against Spartak (shame on you guys from the capital haha).

Copa's got the Brazil game but I don't see them even drawing to Paraguay, not after they finally got their juices flowing in their last group game. So we'll stick with Cup of Nations and a U21 game:

Game 1: Senegal-Algeria. Senegal WIN @2.08. BCR odds: 2.08
Game 2: Kenya-Tanzania. Kenya WIN @2.34. BCR odds: 2.30
Game 3: Germany-Romania (U21). Germany WIN @1.58. BCR odds: 1.57
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.6901. BCR parlay: 7.5108

Odds advantage: 2.39%
Units advantage: 17.93

Running advantage after 3 bets: +49.55 (+17.93)
All-time cumulative: +12,241.87
Running units after 2 bets (0W|2L): -200 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Typical. The lowest odds failed to hit. Ghana actually did well, came back from a goal down to lead 2-1, and then just somehow managed to get a player sent off, then it all went downhill from there. Benin got the equaliser and Ghana never looked the same.

Such a shame that the Dutch girls got a last-min penalty to win for us.

We'll take a Concacaf/Cup of Nations parlay, with a friendly in Russia. BCR doesn't have the lines for those club friendlies so we'll assume they are at par.

Game 1: Nigeria vs Guinea. Nigeria WIN @1.96. BCR odds: 1.98
Game 2: Panama vs USA. USA WIN @1.54. BCR odds: 1.51
Game 3: Rostov vs Spartak Moscow. Spartak WIN @2.04. BCR odds: 2.04
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.1575. BCR parlay: 6.0991

Odds advantage: 0.96%
Units advantage: 5.84

Running advantage after 2 bets: +31.62 (+5.84)
All-time cumulative: +12,223.94
Running units after 1 bet (0W|1L): -100 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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New day in a new "season" but pretty much same tactics.

Japan did well I think but they shouldn't have conceded the goal. Ecuador made it a scrappy match in the end and Japan paid for profligacy so we see both Asian teams knocked out.

We try our luck with women's world cup, I think the taller girls will triumph, and parlaying with one of the dark horses in the Cup of Nations... we'll be backing the favourites.

Game 1: Italy vs China. Italy WIN @1.97. BCR odds: 1.94
Game 2: Netherlands vs Japan. Netherlands WIN @1.78. BCR odds: 1.74
Game 3: Ghana vs Benin. Ghana WIN @1.72. BCR odds: 1.71
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.0313. BCR parlay: 5.7723

Odds advantage: 4.47%
Units advantage: 25.78

Running advantage after 1 bet: +25.78
All-time cumulative: +12,218.1

buwaytress

legendary

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Note: As alerted yesterday, 1 unit will now be adjusted to 500 satoshi = BTC 0.000005. This decision due to BTC price. A 100 unit bet today is still worth more in USD than a 100 unit bet when we started the season. I don't expect this to change again until BTC either loses 50% in value or gains 100%.

Final Numbers for Season 1 (5 September 2018 to 24 June 2019):
1. Starting bankroll: 10,000 units
2. Ending bankroll: 18,176.81 units (81.76% profit)
3. Total Bets: 350 (75W|275L)
4. Total Units Gained from Odds Advantage: 12,192.32 (An average of 34.83 units per bet!)

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Qatar flopped at the end. Messi still could not get on the scoresheet but Argentina won't bother with how they progressed, since Aguero finally got in on the goal action.

We take yet another underdog bet with the Asians today, hoping for Japan to somehow beat Ecuador for a place in the QFs. Pair that with a hope of Suarez getting another brace en route to Uruguay beating Chile maybe?

Game 1: Chile vs Uruguay. Uruguay WIN @2.26. Betcoin odds: 2.24
Game 2: Ecuador vs Japan. Japan WIN @3.22. Betcoin odds: 3.19
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @7.3038. Betcoin parlay: 7.1456

Odds advantage: 2.21%
Units advantage: 15.82

Running advantage after 350 bets: +12,192.32 (+15.82 units)

Running units after 349 bets (75W|274L): +8,276.81 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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As of tomorrow, and until further notice, the amount per unit of betting will be updated from 1000 satoshi to 500 satoshi (BTC 0.00001 to 0.000005). This is mainly because, when we started I intended each bet to only be around $5. It is a somewhat arbitrary figure, but the whole point of this thread always was to show what would happen over the long term if you bet choosing the best odds/lowest margins.

I will provide the final numbers tomorrow, and update the OP as well.

Moving forward, I will still use units, since that's the only thing that matters but I will start from a clean slate again and using the updated amount. I know I meant to do this only at every start of the season but the season has practically ended, and Bitcoin price has really changed quickly. Since the end of season really is for me the EPL and this also gives us the opportunity to close the "season" at 350 bets, I think it's timely.

It will still ensure we end the season in over 8000 units profit (which is 80% of the bankroll) even if we lose today's pick, which I'll put down shortly.

buwaytress

legendary

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Uganda did a fantastic upset. Their first finals win in 40 years apparently! Too bad for us, Aussie girls had to wait till the last 15 minutes to change the game, and of if it weren't for VAR we might have had a penalty to secure us some salvation for our flagging spirits after going down 170 units from our high Sad

Anyway, no use looking back in anger. I have but the one underdog I want to win tonight, the guys I've been backing for so long. Come on Almoez, make this your moment!

100 units on Qatar to WIN vs Argentina @15.3226. BCR odds: 12.21

Odds advantage: 25.49%
Units advantage: 311.26

Running advantage after 349 bets: +12,176.5 (+311.26 units)

Running units after 348 bets (75W|273L): +8,376.81 (-100 units)

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So Chile won as expected but the Croatians weren't able to dent the French and lost to Dembele's goal. Not that a draw would have served our purposes anyway.

I will pick Uganda as an upset in the Africa Cup of Nations, parlay that with Aussie women's win over Norway and pad it up a little with Brazil to just nick it over Peru.

Game 1: DR Conga vs Uganda. Uganda WIN @3.57. Betcoin: 3.66
Game 2: Norway vs Australia. Australia WIN @2.18. Betcoin: 2.04
Game 3: Peru vs Brazil. Brazil WIN @1.37. Betcoin: 1.39
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @10.665. Betcoin parlay: 10.38

Odds advantage: 2.75%
Units advantage: 28.5

Running advantage after 348 bets: +11,865.24 (+28.5 units)

Running units after 347 bets (75W|272L): +8,476.81 (-100 units)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 66. (Read 40105 times)