U-19, U-23 (not Ind A) won't be productive much IMO as they hardly travel frequently even in SENA. The first-class tour would never happen as it would be a complete waste of time for any Ranji team except the Northeast (due to skill level) but the Nepali team has everything to gain if they get to travel and participate in Ranji. I used to play amateur cricket and back then we had a fair amount of Nepali players in our club but they were settled here for good. Guess you already know about the history of how it goes?
The only reason the Gulf getting preferential treatment is due to the large Indian Diaspora and economic clout of the gulf countries and it seems BCCI really don't see any incentive on promoting cricket in Nepal, Myanmar etc due to the very same reasons.
Given the political situation, I don't think that either of the sides will take a positive view on Nepal's participation in the Ranji Trophy. BTW, given the history so far, CAN should approach the ICC or other boards such as PCB or BCB for support, rather than relying on the BCCI. The PCB has taken a much more favorable view of the associate nations. They are perhaps the only country to keep the Future Tour Programs (FTP) commitments on Zimbabwe. But first of all, CAN needs to put its house in order. They were suspended for three years from 2016, due to political interference.
How big is the cricket market in Nepal, is it a profitable business at a local level?
You might be onto something, as i pointed out States might oppose this idea (inclusion of Nepal in Ranji) but at the same time i hope CAN and BCCI should start talking, CAN should take this initiative if they are serious as BCCI has virtually no incentive in this affair (except earning some brownie points).
Yeah, you are right about PCB. Having said that they were the beneficiary of PIG-3 deal (Srinivasan) and if I'm not wrong then this deal added an extra $25-30M to their existing share, actually it was beneficiary to every Test playing nation.
If I'm being realistic then IMO the big reason associates are in a poor state is because they want Test cricket status (mostly because of ICC fantasy). It's not feasible as it's a loss-making business even for existing members so i'd prefer if associates focus on LOIs only in the longer run.