Topic: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April - page 5. (Read 1950 times)

Economic Genius

It's the opposite, Russia tries to test the waters.

Poland has already told Russia it will not renew its contract because it's getting the gas from Noway via the Baltic pipeline, this was known from the start of the year well before the war started:
https://warsawinstitute.org/polands-plan-challenging-russian-gas-dominance/


So basically Russia stops deliveries to somebody who didn't want them anymore!

As for Bulgaria, it's the easiest target they could find, highly dependent and poor, with a lot of pro-Russian sentiment, if they would really want to test Europe they would cut gas to Germany, or, they would stop paying Ukraine for gas transit money!
But they know that if they go that way it's game over and there will be a lot of gas flaring happening.

Sokol is trading at 73.78 and Ural at 76.40, seems like deliveries to India and China are not happening or what?

Europe's dependence on Russian oil is not as depressing as it is on Russian gas, but there is a nuance. Oil refineries are designed for a certain grade of oil, and you cannot simply replace Russian oil with Arab oil, even if the Arabs are ready to sell it to you. You will have to reconfigure the refinery to a different grade and in some cases it is cheaper to build a new refinery than to reconfigure an old one. Even in the case of a democratic "Latvian mixture" mixing takes place only according to documents, and not physically (otherwise, along with the lack of a discount, a headache for reconfiguration comes as a gift). It is for this reason that Biden runs with a scalded ass to Venezuela and Iran, although the US itself is a major oil producer. It's just that without the addition of a few percent of heavy oil, most US refineries will not be able to operate normally without a dramatic fold drop in productivity. In Europe, in general, the situation is similar, dependence on Russian oil is not too large in volume, but there is nothing to replace it, even if OPEC agrees to increase production, which, in principle, is against their interests.

Summer is the time to replenish underground gas storages, in winter it will be too late to think about it. In addition, only a small part of Russian gas is used for heating houses, industry and power plants need gas regardless of the season.

I have noticed most EU countries are ready to cut Russian oil. Their politicians and media have been planting alarming stories just to psy ops Russia. There at least two months supply of energy storage bought at discount from Russia while alternatives were been sourced from opening mothballed coal and nuclear power plants to better inter country selling of electricity.

Meanwhile, summer is coming in two months.

Of course not, I don't think so. Gas has risen in price by 25% per day on the stock exchange after the cessation of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, Austria agreed to pay for gas in rubles, and Poland (according to rumors) increased the volume of reverse from Germany five times. Europe tried to bluff, but failed. Those who do not want cheap Russian gas will receive expensive democratic gas in reverse from the same Russian pipe.

With oil, it's about the same - whoever doesn't want Russian oil at a discount will get a democratic "Latvian mixture" (with 49% of Russian oil) without a discount.

Hmm... Do you think that all the European countries can say no? I don't think that they can, Hyper inflation and recession loading, Increase cost of energy and everyother price would increase. Hope we all know that Russia doesn't just supply gas to Europe, Russia supplies cheap gas to Europe. Russia supplies over 70% of gas needs to Europe. A supply that can't be replaced on that scale even in 5 years.

I think Poland is chosen by Europe as the advanced vanguard for reconnaissance in force, to see how serious Russia's intentions are to turn off the gas in case of non-payment. Now Europe has to pass the test of how United it is. If at least one of the EU countries gives up and agrees to buy Russian gas on Putin's terms, the rest of Europe will be able to buy gas through it in reverse, albeit more expensive than under a direct contract with Gazprom, but saving face. If all of Europe can say no, then there will be no more Russian gas in Europe.

Russian energy firm Gazprom has told Poland and Bulgaria it will stop sending gas to the two countries from today. Whatever they're doing, they should just not switch to Nuclear War. Because I still don't understand why some old men who have over, enjoyed their lives, seen it all in the world, had it all, would now start scattering everything and turning the world upside down for those coming behind when they're just about to exit already.

I deleted my previous post because it looks like it was a bit premature and there was no confirmation from Gazprom. But since you managed to answer it, so be it, especially since it looks like the information about the termination of gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract is correct. Bulgaria also received a notice of gas shutdown due to lack of payment in rubles today.

The "full picture" is that Russia will no longer supply its resources without payment, which Russia is free to dispose of. Payment for gas in rubles is not some kind of April joke of Gazprom.

Europe wants to continue to receive resources from Russia, but that Russia does not receive money for this. This desire of Europe is understandable, but it is somewhat naive - in real life this does not happen, in order to get something you need you have to pay for it. Europe's attempts to refuse the supply of resources from Russia are demonstrative and generally untenable, it's like if you have running water at home, but you say - I'd rather switch to bottled water supplies than pay the bill for tap water, because I don't like the supplier tap water. And if there is not enough bottled water to take a shower every day, then I will wash less often, just to harm Putin. This would be a funny joke if it weren't for the sad truth.

Let's not pull out 1 line from the whole event?

What does the whole picture look like of what is happening on the gas market in Poland and around?! FACTS:

1. Real "first - go!" It was this winter when Russia, violating all contractual relations, with the aim of terrorizing consumers, in order to achieve its illegal desires, stopped the flow of gas towards the EU. I will not recall the previous, even earlier "first-go".
2. As early as March 17, 2022, Poland announced that it was refusing to buy Russian gas even under short-term contracts, and the contract, which ends in 2022, will not be extended. Those. in this case, which you pointed out, Russia has once again shown its "stability" by violating the fulfillment of its obligations and implementing its complexes. This is "normal" for Russia - feel free to describe the real picture
3. In September 2021, PGNiG signed a 20-year contract with the United States for the supply of liquefied natural gas. Supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States to Poland will be increased from 3.5 million tons to 5.5 million tons per year from 2023. This increase will just approximately cover the critical shortage of gas, after the cessation of gas purchases from Russia, by the end of the current contract.
4. Polish gas market: 5 billion cubic meters - own production, about 6-7 billion through the Swinoujscie LNG terminal - a regasification terminal located in the Polish city of Swinoujscie. Designed to receive liquefied natural gas (LNG) from gas carriers, its subsequent regasification and transfer to gas distribution networks. This is approximately 12 billion cubic meters of gas. At the same time, the total consumption is approximately 15 billion. This means that Poland needs to buy 3 billion cubic meters from others (read - Russia). The contract, which Russia violated today, envisaged the supply of up to 9 billion cubic meters. Taking into account the gas terror from Russia that has already taken place, a project was launched to pump Norwegian gas, and around November 2022 this supply route will start working
5. Yes, Poland will now have a somewhat difficult period, but this is temporary, and even more so - summer. In 6 months Russia will finally lose a stable buyer of gas. What will Russia do with it, which has almost no storage facilities, will become a problem for Russia.

In total - another "victory in Russian", or as it is called in the rest of the world - "shoot yourself in the foot"

See how the information played with colors, how complete and multifaceted it turned out to be?

PS. Dear be.open, despite our diametrically opposed views, I respect your opinion. But a strong recommendation - do not submit such "unspoken" information! Anyone who spends 10 seconds checking it is guaranteed to come to the conclusion that you are either manipulating or distorting or giving "reluctant" or not revealing the "full picture". And you're doing it on purpose

Now all of natto Related country trying to get facility from USA and Rasa getting sensation day by day so they cant do anything by treat I think.

Another "victory" of the Kremlin ghouls
"Russian oil giant Rosneft was unable to sell 6.5 million tons of raw materials on the market, as it demanded a full prepayment in rubles, Reuters writes, citing traders."

Refiners in Europe are less and less willing to process Russian oil. The war and sanctions against the Russian Federation have already led to the fact that many Western buyers of Russian oil have stopped new spot purchases. Vitol Group, the largest oil trader, will significantly limit the sale of oil from the Russian Federation in the second quarter, and plans to completely stop trading in Russian raw materials by the end of this year. Prior to this, similar decisions were made by BP, Shell and Eni.

Link https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rosneft-fails-sell-oil-giant-tender-traders-say-2022-04-25/

I think it was part of the plan from Russia and they really prepared everything,
it seems that it is indeed Russia's plan to pressure European countries that will impose sanctions,
after all we can see that this war is very complex and we will see how far this war will go

Gazprom's long-term contracts are concluded in the post-paid format for each billing period. The next payments for gas under some existing contracts should be made this week. In the absence of payment for gas, after the grace period of five days, gas supplies will be terminated. Very soon we will find out who has the big balls in this story and whether Europe is ready to abandon Russian gas right now.

And what did Putin achieve? A large majority of European countries refused to pay Russia for oil and gas supplies in rubles. But the EU countries appreciated the blackmail of Russia and decided to quickly abandon Russian gas and oil forever. Putin should not have gone for such blackmail, because in the long run Russia will lose a lot from him.
Moreover, the sixth package of sanctions has already been practically prepared, which will be directed against the Russian Sberbank, and a complete embargo on oil and gas from Russia will also be introduced. Putin blackmailed. Europe completely refuses oil and gas from Russia. If these sanctions are introduced, the Russian economy faces a complete collapse.

Regardless of whether or not what is being done, Russia is really clever in taking advantage of the existing situation,
they knew what they had to do so the pressure turned on Europe,
clearly I hope this war can end soon and Ukrainian civilians really suffer because of this

A good step from russia to pressure europe, because of its high dependence on russian gas, russia dared to attack ukraine, and now russia is asking for payment in rubles so that europe will have to follow these rules or they will lose gas supply.

Discovering alternatives is not as easy as we say. Germany is dependent on Russia for its mineral resources and Russia is taking advantage of this weakness.

If Germany takes steps in favor of Ukraine and contributes pressure on Putin about shutting down his madness, then the arrogant mad Putin will hit Germany's weak point by cutting off its gas, oil, and coal supplies.

It is to be hoped that Germany will find an alternative.
But when? And how?

Okay, let's say, Germany, Russia's biggest gas importer is not going to pay in Roubles and other European countries follow the step, then what? Where the fuck are they going to sell their gas and how the fuck are they going to profit? They need money to live. Also, every single day, the war requires a lot of money. Robert Habeck recently said that Germans should reduce demand on Russian gas as much as possible. He suggests Germans to lower the room temperature by one or more degrees, work remotely if possible and move on public transport.

As we know that Russia is a gas-producing country that supplies many European countries, what Russia has done by requiring gas payments in rubles is an anticipatory measure in case of stricter sanctions, of course when transactions with rubles will create dependence on EURO or Dollars doesn't happen again.