Topic: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April - page 8. (Read 1950 times)

1. The gas distribution system that you are talking about now does not have significant critical restrictions when gas pumping is stopped. "Freezing" of a segment or even a significant part of such a system will not lead to irreversible processes.
2. Another thing is the transport/transit system pumping gas from wells to the GDS system from the first point. Leaving her without pumping is a completely different story. For example, you can pause pumping. And even within 2-3 weeks, no problems will arise. But in 6-12 months - it will arise! Moreover, these will be global problems for the entire industry. Let's move on to point 3.
3. Stopping gas production, yes, yes, this is exactly what will happen during a long stop of pumping through transport channels. The first reason is that Russia does not have a mega storage for gas, they have always used Ukrainian storage for the most part. The second reason is gas production technology. You can't just pick up and press the "pause" button. With a long idle time, the gas must either be burned or the well must be "frozen". It's stupid to burn gas, of course the Russians can. But given the prospects for sanctions, it will be necessary to burn until the reserves are depleted. Freezing - allows you to save stocks. But there is a problem - reactivation requires technologies and equipment that the "great oil and gas power" does NOT have! And because of the sanctions will not ...
Then think for yourself

It could be easy to shut off these pipelines as easily as it is to operate. It only needs proper and regular maintainace to keep it in good shape. I don't see any technical problems that may arise. 

Turning off the gas is a serious technical problem. 

The equipment can function effectively only in the process of uninterrupted gas supplies to Europe.  In a situation where such supplies are completely stopped, technical problems will arise.  Pipes will begin to rust and will have to be replaced. 

At the same time, in the context of sanctions and currency restrictions, there are no resources for the implementation of such investment projects. 

Equipment conservation is always a financially costly undertaking.  Significant additional costs arise in the event of shutdown and conservation of the gas distribution system. 

At the same time, it should be noted that Russia currently does not profit from gas trading.  Russia profits solely from the sale of crude oil.

In some countries, why don't you name a few?
It's quite funny when I hear people talking about Europe and thinking that in northern Europe it's snow all year long, we all ride sleds and it's like Frozen every single day. Might surprise you but there is no such thing anywhere, this is Oslo in summer:


Europe gets way less snow than the US, it gets in a lot of parts less snow than Jpana and in some parts, it barely snows as in much of France, UK and Spain.
So really, stop with these silly things.


And of course, you have no real proof of the "many times cheaper" thing as you claim.
Let's debunk this myth of LNG being x times more expensive, directly from the source:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-diplomacy/us-lng-price-up-to-40-higher-than-russian-gas-novak/20225


So before all these events even Russia barely manages to claim its gas is 40% cheaper than LNG.

They can try any tactics they want to try, it will not succeed for one simple reason. Russia is fighting with soldiers, and that makes sense, people who have military experience and guns and armour and weapons and tanks etc etc, that is how you go to a war. However, Ukraine has the advantage of the fact that they are fighting as a whole nation. Sure there are some people who are fleeing the nation and going to other nations.

But, every single person who stayed back, will be fighting Russia. So, it is not about Russia military versus Ukrainian military, it is more like Russian soldiers vs EVERYONE in Ukraine right now. This is why they are failing, and will keep on failing.

In countries such as Germany, industries are being shut down due to unavailability of gas. And even at this point, pipeline gas (as per contractual terms) from Russia is manytimes cheaper when compared to imported LNG from Qatar or the United States. The funny thing about pipeline gas is that the prices are linked to crude oil prices (although with a lag), and right now Russia doesn't make much of a profit from selling it. If the Europeans want to replace this gas with some other source, they may end up paying 3x or 4x extra.

The action of shutting off would really be not immediate as there are some existing contracts that need to be filled.
Maybe, after those contracts expired, European countries will assess the situation and push thru the shutting down of Russian services.
But if they can't find immediate alternatives or replacement, they may possibly continue to pay Russia, but now in rubles.
They will definitely weight the situation, but they won't be shutting down Russian gas if they can't find alternatives.

Russia's military aggression against Ukraine has not yet subsided. In Russia, they realized that they could not effectively attack Ukraine from three sides, as they had previously counted on the minimum resistance of the Ukrainian armed forces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, having already 8 years of experience in military operations, very competently took advantage of the situation and do not arrange frontal battles, but operate in small groups with the support of artillery and aviation, inflicting pinpoint and tangible losses on the enemy. Therefore, in the first month of the war, Russia lost more than 40,000 people killed, wounded and captured. Military equipment "the second army of the world" has already lost about 40 percent, eight of the ten invading armies of Russia.

Now Russia is withdrawing its heavily battered troops from Kyiv and the northern directions and will attack from the east, as well as try to seize the land corridor in southern Ukraine in order to have a passage into the previously occupied Crimean peninsula.
On April 1 and 3 in Belgorod, Russia, about 50 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, first ammunition depots exploded, followed two days later by large fuel stores. Although eyewitnesses claimed that fuel tanks attacked two helicopters, it was almost a fantasy for the Ukrainians to pass through the multi-layered Russian air defense line, complete the task and return safely, however, it is precisely these losses that do not allow the Russians to muster up the strength to now attack in full Ukraine from the east. However, April should be difficult and a turning point in this war.

As for Putin's plans to pay for gas in rubles, so far the countries of the G7, and these are the USA, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Japan, have rejected this demand of Russia. Moldova has definitely agreed to this, some other states are waiting.

You are wrong. Russia is not a superpower. And she never was. This is a backward, wild, totalitarian country, headed by a madman who imagines himself to be the messiah. Oh yeah, and they still have nuclear weapons. It is this /, nuclear weapons, that has become an argument for intimidating the West. Remove nuclear weapons from Russia now, and Ukraine will capture Russia in a couple of months Russia does not "crush" the West with its economy, or with its technologies that it will stop supplying to the West, there is no greatness. There is only the fear of nuclear war, and this crazy dwarf uses it very well.
Regarding China, I agree that China has contradictions with the West, but I do not agree that China will create an alliance with Russia. Russia for him, China - just a raw material appendage.

In some countries, the weather is such that it is covered with snow all year round. If the gas supply in these countries is cut off, an unimaginable bad situation will arise. Countless people will die because of the weather in these countries. And Putin is using this opportunity and threatening to cut off gas supplies.

In this situation, there are two roads open for these countries. One, is the discovery of an alternative fuel other than gas though it is a matter of time. Two, agree to a deal with Putin.

Yeah, I don't expect them to just shut it off. This is more posturing but they might eventually go on with it in the future. After all this means they'd be getting Euros in exchange.

You're right. Russia envisioned these sanctions. They knew they would come and were somewhat ready for it

The western media went full Goebbels during the Russian/Ukraine conflict. I mean they haven't been telling the truth for years but they literally doubled their filth. There are hundreds of reports ( they are there if you know where to look) showing how they are manipulating the masses.

Right before Russia destroyed the remaining Nazi forces during WWII, the German people were still believing that they were about to invade Moscow.

Any time now!

Putin is now using dictatorship and not counting others because he is in superpower. Don't even think about the advantages and disadvantages. Russia has no idea how many people will suffer if the gas supply is cut off, he is just looking after his own interests.

Now, Russia wants to build a new world order with China. As a result, powerful Russia will become infinitely powerful and will do whatever it wants while keeping the whole world in its hands.

Turkey's president says that "he doesn't want to see his citizens freeze to death".  European countries certainly can't refuse it even though they insist, do they already have other alternatives to meet their domestic oil supply?  this is very smart politics from putin to fight sanctions from the west and oil is the most exclusive basic need right now.

More discussion on India's trade with Russia following Rupee-Ruble Trade mechanism. Europe and America stands against the decision. Here none is to be blamed, everyone wants an opportunity to make use. Now it is the time for India and it is using the chance. America and European countries tie hands to fight Russia, just on the fact of holding power

Germany, Europe's biggest consumer of Russian gas which has halted certification of the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia because of the Ukraine crisis, could import gas from Britain, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands via pipelines.

Germany's utility association BDEW has called on the government to come up with an emergency plan to prepare the country for disruptions to Russian gas supplies.

Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL) said it is considering ways to produce more gas from its Norwegian fields during the upcoming summer in Europe, a season in which output is normally affected by maintenance.

Southern Europe can receive Azeri gas via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline to Italy and the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) through Turkey.

The United States will work to supply 15 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union this year, the transatlantic partners said last week.

Europe's options on Gas
European countries have got more other alternative, why don't they find a solution out of it. There is nothing to blame the countries benefiting out of Russia's trade plans to overcome sanctions.

Europe has been seen as an energy crisis area in recent years and Russia is their largest supplier. All see that energy dependence on Russia is not good in the long run. But it seems that the measures and policies put forward to discuss reducing dependence on Russia do not seem to be effective and now when the fighting breaks out, they are even ready to replace energy supplies from Russia. But what they have achieved is no progress, they will still have to use Russian gas for at least the next 5 years to find new supplies.

Its almost going towards end because Russia is taking their military out of Ukraine to their borders but now Ukraine wants to continue their fight by bombarding the oil Bunkers in Russian borderline.

Probably this is going to be the beginning of new economic era, because three big countries of Asia is joining together and actually no country can't impose complete ban like US did to North Korea like countries because they generate money from those countries. Means US is losing their domination and China is marching towards the next big influencial country of this world.

There isn't really anything Europe can do short term. We are dependent on Russia for gas, there is no real alternative we can find in a few weeks. Also these are long term contracts with Russia, we can't just cancel them overnight. Same goes for Russia, they need the western money and will not stop the gas flow. Both parties in the contract want the gas to keep flowing. Putins rational behind this move is strengthen the currency, via increasing demand for Ruble. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz already said they will only pay in Euro or Dollars, but this doesn't matter. Gazprom is creating new bank accounts that will directly change the euros or dollars into Ruble.

Let's make it more interesting since you're such a know-it-all?
If by Victory day which is one month and a few days from now on Russia won't conquer half of Ukraine, are you willing to put your account here at stake? 
We can try a bet in BTC, how does half or one quarter sound?


Europe imports ~ 200 billion worth of oil and gas, EU GDP is 21.5 trillion, that's 1%, indeed a strain, just as a head-up, we have a noncommunity export of 1.9 trillion, just our exports to other countries are bigger than entire Russia plus EAEU groups GDP.
We have 4 million jobs opening in Europe, we could easily absorb half of that in months, plus a lot of the refugees are children, and that makes a huge differnece.