Topic: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy - page 5. (Read 4766 times)

Sometimes you just need to push your luck instead of waiting for pair to appear on your hands. In the early game, you could take your time slowly until you are sure to win because there isnt ante yet


Most people that have lower stack of chips usually gets impatient especially when the BB is quite high already. That means it is most likely for them to try to bluff. A player with higher stack will most likely call that kind of bluff , even if they lose they wont be losing alot . Happens alot of time in bitcointalk weekend's game especailly when we are near to the last 10 player


Glad you got my point. Not a pro in poker unlike you guys here and I cant really explain things well 

point taken, i'm talking specifically about this situation:


i try to keep it close to the odds and i think i do a decent job, which is why i rarely stay in hands that are gutshot only.


tough beats. made gutshots hurt the worst, except maybe for overpair vs underpair hitting set.

I lean heavily on a raise if there is a limper and I had planned a RFI. I can't really decide on a sizing. I generally RFI something like 2.22 or 2.48 BB, and add anywhere from 1-1.5 BB for a limper. I prefer this if I am in late position not so much if I'm LJ, as it generally picks up a caller. It happens a lot in our little series and I've been leaning more towards calling as to many people limp their value hands. In general though it's probably like 20% of the limped pots either the limper or the flat call after has something strong.

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I might now better if I didn't have a nearly empty database atm. I sat down today and gathered up all my hands across my laptop and PC I've been playing from and there were 200 hands. That doesn't even over all of last night. So I don't really know what's going on. My HM3 still has some of the data from before the PC went down, but it's very sparse. I'm pretty annoyed with ACR about this as it's the biggest annoyance I face on their site, is lost hands I want to review. I have to spend some time figuring the ins and outs of HM3 so I can figure out exactly what I have and then sort out the best way to get accurate info moving forward, as it all "feels like" to me at this point.
I have been kicking around trying out a few different sites but most don't offer the lineup that ACR has and that's really beneficial to my erratic schedule. I'm not sure if I should start trying playing all my hands with the HUD running  as this lets me tag hands in real time. It's just I often start on the laptop then migrate to a PC, and the HUD slows things down drastically. I've been kicking the idea around of dismantling my Mining rig and converting it into a poker rig; might be tiome to get on that. 

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That all sounds like progress to me. It's tough and there is certainly a point where you have no fold equity against a big stack. It's just about picking your spots as best you can. It's common to come up with a 10BB shove strategy from any position. There are also better spots than others to try and steal blinds like SB VS. BB. It's uncomfortable but it's a good part of the game to get used to, because you can wait for KK or AA and lose all the same.
Good Luck this weekend

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So I have been trying to find this hand for a couple days and it's gone. I have been trying to adjust and catch myself in spots where my pocket pairs might be behind. I'd like to get thoughts on this spot. This is about 40 people off the money. I am sitting around the bubble for position at the moment.

Villain 1 UTG  22 BB   Raises  to 2.5 BB       Folds to
Villain-2 BTN  39 BB   Raises  to 8.3 BB
Hero      SB    31 BB   Calls
Villain 1        Jams     22BB to call
Villain 2       Calls      22 BB
Hero with TT  ?   13.7 BB to call                   Pot size is roughly 53 BB

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Question for the group. How faithful are you to following the odds in making a call. Does a small betsizing keep you in it chasing a draw if the odds are there? I know that there are times I personally get away from the math and it's been hit or miss but sometimes things just don't make sense. 3 days ago I had a 100BB stack jam turn into me (40BB) when I had top pair 3rd kicker and a flush draw had come in on the turn. Flop was checked through. So I hero called it and he had pure air. Did the same thing the next hand and I called it down with second pair, again he had air but at least had an overcard.
Funny note on that tournament I got taken out by 2 hands about 15 apart same player. He called down my 2 pair and my flopped set, with solid value bets on flop and turn chasing a gutter that came in... TWICE. That tournament lasted about 45 minutes for me and I went from 220th to about 3rd until I ran into this guy.

I ll agreed that this all depends from the table. Raising is worse when there too much aggressive players, or calling stations, but limping is very often ends up after someone raising and you have to decide: to lost BB or to raise and maybe, if preflop will be shitty for you, lost much more.

I would tell, that limping can be used when you're small blind or previous player, because there much less chance that someone will raise after you. And this is bed idea to limp if you're moving first or second.

So i'm just trying not to limp, this is easier from all possible strategies (of course, eventually, because i'm fish, i'm falling under limping anyway )

First game when I came last I was trying to see the table cards each time. Like that.

Second game 11th I was more hard on myself and folded the crap.


In the end I could have been even harder later and stayed in longer. But I felt you have to go for it sometime or you get left behind in stacks.

When your all in is 2k but someone has 12k they don't even care it they have to match you, they can hardly feel it. But if you lose you are dead.

well there are tight/weak passive players (folds when he doesn't have the nuts) and there are loose passive (calling station) players---two very different player types. it's usually a bad idea to bluff into a calling station.

if it's the type of table where lots of players are calling and seeing flops (hard to isolate especially as the first to raise) then i tighten up my raising range in the interest of pot control, and start limping more. when there is lots of weak preflop play then you get better odds on limping, both pot odds and implied odds.


yeah it's a fish move, but at low stakes you can often get away with it. it's all about the odds for me. for example, i love limping low pocket pairs for cheap because flopping a set can pay off huge.

On passive table mostly it's good to raise, i think you understand why. The less people in flop we have, the less probability that you will face with stronger than your hand. Also, with raise it's easier to bluff. With limp you must have really good hand, because your opponents will not believe that limper have a strong hand.

But as i said, sometimes, limping is good if it fits to your strategy. The problem is that limping is used by fish mostly. And the worst way it's limp and check on flop (if it of course not a 80 lvl bluff)

luck is just another way of describing variance. i love this quote.


we all have good runs and bad runs. we tend to focus on the bad runs because they are traumatic. at least this is my personal experience.

100 hands is a crazy small sample. 50k is a good sample. if something is very wrong then you'll probably see deviation within 20k hands. over just several hundred or few thousand hands you should always expect some bad luck. it always hits sometime.

i guess there is also the possibility that you are just statistically unlucky.

Yeah draws can be a bitch. I'm a little wishy washy on most spots at the moment. Draws OOP I am generally check/calling flop. I used to 3-bet these spots if I had a strong flush draw or OESD, but found I was getting pushed off my hands with larger bets into a big pot on the turn. Sure I would generate some folds from weak bets folding the flop, but more often than not it ended badly. I tend to try and keep the pot smaller when I am purely drawing, as I want to be priced in to get to the river.
This is a spot where I don't mind an OOP lead on the flop if it's a board that the Villain probably missed, if they call they might just check back the turn given the opportunity. It can put the fear of a turn check-raise in their minds.
Straight draws are irritating. I honestly can't think of to many that I make when I'm actually chasing it down. I also don't often get to the river in these spots, and fold turn. I often hit them on boards when it's unnecessary and already have my villain dominated. They do often turn up in hands that I get crushed though so that's fun lol. Now that my tunnel vision is gone, post flop I don't chase a gut shot unless it checks through or I have something else going for me like (2 overcards, a real good price, or player/spot dependent reasoning). OESD feels great when you see it but it still only carries like 16% chance of hitting on the turn or river(8% if calling on the turn) So again it's a spot I like to try and get into as cheap as possible.

It's not a perfect system, but it does create a large portion of my bluff spots. IP I like to work bluffs on turn and river if it checks through. A lot of these spots I turn into bluffs on the river, like I was waiting to make sure the draw didn't come in. The big thing I try to do is play the same in a bluff as I would if it made it, all the while mixing it up between aggresive and passively playing a spot. I used to lose a lot on chasing draws or aggressively betting them so I try to play something like this 70/30 passive/aggressive. The determining factors are how many villains, how strong is my hand if I miss, position, stack sizes.

Couldn't agree more. If things are deep enough that on the flop the SPR is even close to 1:1 I am inclined to get it in. Not so much on just an OESD, but a strong flush draw for sure. Not a lot of people want to call down their stack unless they are nutted if there is a draw out there. It would likely be less if they give it enough though to think you are protecting a made set or 2 pair.

Making trips is great until you find a guy with a boat. Honestly I don't know if I've ever gotten away from a set - never folded and seen one in a hand playout. They are hard to tell apart from a top pair aggression to me. This would have probably been the onetime for me.
I hate any 4 to a straight or flush spot. I sometimes bluff the flush spots on the river. If I face aggression here though I am running into a sunrunner who made the straight, flushes are worse as I have lost to a 2X completing the flush.
You might have missed it but that river also completed the flushdraw on the table. It sucks but I wouldn't bet if given the chance and would fold to a bet. To many hands crush you unfortunately. For an idea of why they may have a 5 A5 is a typical preflop hand that people play.

I can not remember how the hand progressed. It was few days ago and in between I had lots of Poker lol. But I got your point.

Yes, I know the math, but after my latest losing strikes by the tables, I tend to agree with this statement.



Maybe, I never thought about this before, but taking into consideration bad luck and shitty cards dealt, many times I ended up with weaker flush on the turn.

On the other hand, hard to talk about "selective memory", when I count hands and the ratio is 100 to 1. Only one time, I got decent cards dealt from the 5% starting range in a hundred hands.

That is why sometimes the math just won't work without a bit of pure luck, as quoted above  .

 
We can shake hands here, I have the exact same strategy and would answer, just like you if somebody asks me such a question.

Agree, this would be the best way to play such hand and of course, all depends from position, betting pre/post-flop, readings, and... luck.                      

assuming the draws missed? this is villain dependent. does he have missed draws in his range? can you get him to fold a weak made hand like top pair/rag kicker or 2nd pair? there are cases where you can still have decent fold equity while bluffing the river. if not, then consider shutting down on the river and controlling the pot size.

if the draw hit, i guess it's also villain dependent. into an aggressive player who may try to resteal the river, i may check-raise or minbet-raise here. into a more passive player i'm value betting and hoping for the rare opportunity to 4bet.

if stack sizes are appropriate (no overbets) then i like to get my stack all in on the flop, especially multi-way. a good example is @Trofo in this 3-way pot:



selective memory is in full effect!

OESD + flush draw = 15 outs. that means you have a 54.1% chance of hitting on turn or river, and 32.6% chance of hitting on the river. http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/drawing-odds/

There are alot of variance in gamble therefore I would just simply brush away all those kind of math


Tough luck you got there, It happened alot of time to me as well. When you have a pair of those high cards and someone goes all in, it will be hard decision to fold . Mathematically speaking the chance to win with KK and AA is different but for me during an actual play, anyone with a pair in the hand has almost equal chance to win . Thats what makes poker an interesting game to play, you never know you are going to win until the end

In bitcointalk poker series game, I have won few times again higher pair in hands than mine . Most of the time I got pair 8 or pair 9 but I won with three of a kind. Sometimes I lost with pair Q against straight or flush as well  ( someone tried to bluff with bad cards and ended up winning with either straight or flush )


I will have this possibility in my mind if the player keep on raising the chip from the start of the game. Someone with either Ace, king or queen probably wont keep on raising it from the start

I see now where you are coming from. My bad, I must be overthinking LOL

Okay everyone, now how do you guys save yourself from this kind of hands?



In my mind I know that I have a three of a kind with an A
May be there could be a possibility for a straight if anyone had a 5 but in your mind will you ever have this in mind that it could have 444 in the opponents hand? Honestly speaking, I can not remember how much I have lost on that hand.

Aaahhh..  That's where your real poker journey begins.    Some players use exploitative strategies by taking advantage of player tendencies, history and reads.  Others go the GTO route by using combinatronics and theory to try to estimate how strong a range an opponent has.

I'd suggest the GTO route.

Agree and now I want to ask, what will you do on the river (fifth street) if you were aggressive betting all 4 streets and get called?

Of course, the last card turns out to be a total disaster, 90% of the time, even with flush draw + open-ended straight draw, I end up with nothing majority of the times.

What will you do on the river? Bet or check? If you bet, then how much?


A few months back I would say, that I don't agree and the luck has only minimal impact on the play. I always thought that skills are most important, but today I agree with you.

Why I changed my mind?

Because lately, I had (still have  ) continuous bad luck by the tables. Not only from weeks I got mostly trash dealt, but also even when I have something, very often lose because the opponent is lucky and hit the nuts on the river. It happened so many times lately, that I finally started to appreciate the luck.

It's just insane because even mathematically, I should be getting better hands dealt, not only trash all the time. Additionally, I have lost many all-ins when holding premium hands, which also depends on pure luck or to be precise unluck/bad luck  . Even tried to make a break, to let the bad luck go away, but the first session I played after waiting was even more unlucky, as the previous once.
Played almost 100 hands in this session, only one time hit AA and of course, lost all-in with KK . To be more funny, I wasn't the one who goes all in first.

^  And it's opponent dependent.  Some guys are loose and you need to continue the pressure with only the top of your range and some combo draws, others tight and you could get away with bluffing a wider range.  IMHO.  But it's usually better to stay on top of your range as your standard play til you notice somebody get out of line.

not all semi-bluffs are created equally. if i have a flush draw + open-ended straight draw with two cards to fall, i can be quite aggressive (check-raising) or keen to get chips in a huge multi-way pot.

look at the odds vs top pair/top kicker:



a gutshot straight draw doesn't play quite the same:




i find that aggressively betting draws often represents weaker made hands (that villains are more likely to call on the river) whereas passively calling draws seems to have the opposite effect when eg the 3rd flush card hits.

sometimes shoving the nuts on the river can yield some calls from villains who think you are stealing. sometimes.

I agree with you, that free cards are always a bad idea, but sometimes it is wiser to let the opponents bet, especially if we are OOP and already hit the nuts post-flop, or there is a flush draw, additionally it is always good to remember who the preflop raiser was because we can probably correctly assume what he is holding if there are any readings of course.

During all these years of playing poker, I was able to play many hands in a different way, but TBH still wonder how correctly draws should be played?
I personally think that to be good in poker one has to perfect the bluff play and of course test it on tables with at least medium stakes because on the lower once there are just too many fishes, semi-bluffing a calling station can be very costly on drawing tables.

Many times, I tried to aggressively play draws and was called on all streets with the lowest pair, of course, finally, I have missed the draw majority of times and then on the river, only left to fold, bet or call with literally nothing, all three possibilities are rather shitty in such position. And, when you slow play and hit finally the draw on the river, then there is no value and if you bet too high they will just fold.

Hey no worries I just used that turn of phrase 

I could have said brought to my attention or alerted me.

Thanks for explaining.