[POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes - page 20.

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Quote from: maydna on May 24, 2023, 04:16:01 AM

Quote from: wxa7115 on May 23, 2023, 09:21:33 PM

Unfortunately those sources are not to be trusted either, while it is very difficult for a news agency to remain impartial and neutral, the truth is that most of them do not even try anymore and everything they report has a very strong bias, and this has caused people to stop trusting them.

Now this is sooner or later going to create a huge problem of trust among the whole society as now we cannot even trust our eyes as everything that we see could be manipulated with the use of AI, a scenario similar to the one depicted on the novel 1984.

Perhaps, that's what triggers some countries to want to regulate the use of AI because of misinformation about the news they want to find. And this makes many developers continue to work hard to improve AI to provide more valid information and not provide wrong information to users. And we as users have to be more careful in using AI, and we also have to have more sources that can provide additional information about the news we are looking for. Before we use AI to predict the results, we must compare the information obtained by AI with the information we get to know whether the information is valid or have to look for additional information.

Personally I have never been a fan when it comes to forbidding a particular technology as people will always find a way around it, but on the case of deepfakes this may be the only solution, even an image which has been edited can still be proven to be false by experts with the right technology.

But I really think we may get to the point in which deepfakes may get so realistic that no one will be able to distinguish them, and this could increase the sense of chaos people feel as they will not know what to believe anymore.

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Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 10, 2023, 09:00:00 AM

Quote from: len01 on May 10, 2023, 06:07:02 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on May 10, 2023, 04:06:01 AM

I agree with you, it's more fun, innit, to use your own mind when making your bets. I can imagine how boring it can become to use AI all the time, especially when everyone will be using it and hence the outcome odds will be decreased to something like 1.02. I think it will be fun in the early stages, though. During the first couple of month when AI is possible to use for sports betting, it'll be fun, imo.

maybe every gambler will simultaneously try to predict using AI when the AI hype is currently underway and those who try to predict use AI because they want to get experience from something different that has never been experienced in gambling. however, eventually boredom will set in when overusing the AI and even worse when the AI's predictions are imprecise and eventually decide to make their own predictions.
until now, most gamblers still doubt AI and some are skeptical about the results shown by AI. but in essence it will be more interesting and feel curious and feel satisfied when making prediction decisions by yourself.

for me this topic has a lot to do with people's desire of generating passive income without a lot of work
it may or may not work
I think AI will be more useful in other areas and automations than in betting but we will see.

If, in fact, things are like this at the moment, can't we trust an AI to place bets, or even worse to tell us a possible prediction of a football game or similar? no , because the AI does not have that part yet very well trained, I know that there are many programmers who put an AI to learn about this, and they have and can have very good results, but it is not yet 100% developed, in fact a One of the things for which many pay ChatGPT4 is for that, but not everyone can have Access to the golden goose eggs, it should already be there , but they won't scare the world just like that.

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Quote from: OgNasty on December 08, 2022, 11:11:37 PM

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are? Any other thoughts?

They are doing the worst thing of their life because that chat bot is unable to predict anything accurately. Those who are gambling with the help of such bot are the ones who will use in long run. The bot can't predict the future and it isn't even able to access the current day's data. If someone feeds it the data and ask it to predict the coming events then that person is a naive in my eyes because that person already know that the bot is unable to understand everything and is still relying on its predictions.

I personally would never allow a bot to predict something for me because I really know that the predictions the bot will generate are likely going to be wrong. And, even if the bot does predict something right one or two times that doesn't mean that it will predict everything rightly. Again, it's only a bot, and it won't be accused of fooling us if the prediction goes wrong and we lose a big bet because of the wrong prediction.

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Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 27, 2023, 09:35:09 AM

~snip~
that reminds me of the wisdom of the masses, that averaging in lots of predictions usually give a better result (on average lol) than individual predictions

I wonder if there's people studying that using the existing prediction markets and sports betting platforms at this moment.
have you heard of something like that?

Bees usually make their decisions this way.

Some bees go out and try to find their next home, each one of them come back and start dancing while pointing to the direction of their new potential home, with an intensity proportional to how good the home is.

After a while, the home with most "votes" gets chosen by the hive and they actually end up with the best suitable home almost all the time.

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Quote from: OgNasty on December 08, 2022, 11:11:37 PM

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are? Any other thoughts?

ChatGPT won't be of a huge assistance when it comes to gambling since it's an AI that provides predictions based on the information it has access to. It could be that AI predictions can be accurate at times but they do not guarantee 100% accuracy for your bets. I would not recommend relying totally on artificial intelligence for making gambling decisions. However, it can be beneficial to receive predictions from AI as an additional tool to help you in making your own betting choices.

It can provide logical predictions that are helpful, but it's important to remember that real-life results can vary depending on the specific games you're betting on. Anyway, I just voted "NO".

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Quote from: KTChampions on May 25, 2023, 07:13:33 AM

Quote from: madnessteat on May 24, 2023, 12:25:38 PM

In my opinion, as long as there are fixed matches in sports, no matter how cool the AI is, it, like any good analyst, will make mistakes for reasons beyond its control. AI can achieve great results in forecasting, but only if the human factor will be excluded from the sport, for example soccer will be played by robots. But it seems to me that it won't be as interesting as a match with real players. But I am interested to see the statistics of AI predictions.

Fixed games make up a tiny fraction of the total number of games and do not greatly affect AI results. In addition, all results are compared with each other (for example, with expert forecasts), so everyone suffers from such fluctuations to the same extent.
As for errors, when we talk about random events, this is a very vague concept. For example, AI predicts that a team will draw with a 60% chance, win with a 20% chance, and lose with a 20% chance. What should be the result for you to say that the prediction was correct? Valuation is only possible over a long distance, and as far as I know, quote providers are already approaching an accuracy of 1%.

that reminds me of the wisdom of the masses, that averaging in lots of predictions usually give a better result (on average lol) than individual predictions

I wonder if there's people studying that using the existing prediction markets and sports betting platforms at this moment.
have you heard of something like that?

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Quote from: KTChampions on May 25, 2023, 07:13:33 AM

~snip~
Fixed games make up a tiny fraction of the total number of games and do not greatly affect AI results. In addition, all results are compared with each other (for example, with expert forecasts), so everyone suffers from such fluctuations to the same extent.
As for errors, when we talk about random events, this is a very vague concept. For example, AI predicts that a team will draw with a 60% chance, win with a 20% chance, and lose with a 20% chance. What should be the result for you to say that the prediction was correct? Valuation is only possible over a long distance, and as far as I know, quote providers are already approaching an accuracy of 1%.

Yeah, if fixing games becomes more popular they would be immediately discovered and banned altogether, so it will never become a massive issue.

And yeah, an AI will be able, and is able right now, to give proper estimations of the results of a game. It can absolutely be tuned for this, but of course it's still a random event so anything can happen.

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Quote from: madnessteat on May 24, 2023, 12:25:38 PM

In my opinion, as long as there are fixed matches in sports, no matter how cool the AI is, it, like any good analyst, will make mistakes for reasons beyond its control. AI can achieve great results in forecasting, but only if the human factor will be excluded from the sport, for example soccer will be played by robots. But it seems to me that it won't be as interesting as a match with real players. But I am interested to see the statistics of AI predictions.

Fixed games make up a tiny fraction of the total number of games and do not greatly affect AI results. In addition, all results are compared with each other (for example, with expert forecasts), so everyone suffers from such fluctuations to the same extent.
As for errors, when we talk about random events, this is a very vague concept. For example, AI predicts that a team will draw with a 60% chance, win with a 20% chance, and lose with a 20% chance. What should be the result for you to say that the prediction was correct? Valuation is only possible over a long distance, and as far as I know, quote providers are already approaching an accuracy of 1%.

nullama

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Quote from: madnessteat on May 24, 2023, 12:25:38 PM

In my opinion, as long as there are fixed matches in sports, no matter how cool the AI is, it, like any good analyst, will make mistakes for reasons beyond its control. AI can achieve great results in forecasting, but only if the human factor will be excluded from the sport, for example soccer will be played by robots. But it seems to me that it won't be as interesting as a match with real players. But I am interested to see the statistics of AI predictions.

Yeah, in 2050 actually the RoboCup league has a plan to compete against the human champions.

We'll see how it goes, but you're right, when robots play they are too good, so it's not as entertaining.

It's fun to watch robots play maybe for a couple of minutes, but after that it's not as good. People like watching other people do things, not machines.

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In my opinion, as long as there are fixed matches in sports, no matter how cool the AI is, it, like any good analyst, will make mistakes for reasons beyond its control. AI can achieve great results in forecasting, but only if the human factor will be excluded from the sport, for example soccer will be played by robots. But it seems to me that it won't be as interesting as a match with real players. But I am interested to see the statistics of AI predictions.

KTChampions

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on May 24, 2023, 08:55:00 AM

I think that using an AI at the moment for the prediction is indeed a big mistake, because it is not among the most viable ways to have a reliable answer, but in a few years things can change,or in a few months, it is known that many programmers are working day and night to get an AI that is the main ticket to be able to win lotteries, casinos, whatever, I don't know if they are more advanced than openia, but surely they are close,especially those criminals who like to leave to offline sites for stealing your funds.

It seems to me that it is unlikely that any individual programmer is able to get ahead of the average level of progress in the industry. I proceed from the assumption that if he is so brilliant, then he will not deal with such trifles (and such niches are actually considered marginal - like the club of perpetual motion inventors) but will find application in more serious projects.

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on May 24, 2023, 08:55:00 AM

Quote from: flyingcarpet on May 06, 2023, 09:35:38 AM

Using artificial intelligence for predictions is a big mistake in my opinion. I give an example for football. There are thousands of possibilities for a position in the match. All the data obtained according to the logic of artificial intelligence are analyzed and an estimate emerges, but even this is insufficient. Because there is the luck factor. The luck factor makes predictability impossible. So I'm talking about 100% accurate predictability. Otherwise, it is quite normal for him to make inferences and say logical results based on the data at hand.

But we can make artificial intelligence guess for fun. It's also fun to follow. Sometimes I show off to my friends when the correct results come out. Because I was able to make this prediction thanks to artificial intelligence. Still, these predictions should not go beyond entertainment.

I think that using an AI at the moment for the prediction is indeed a big mistake, because it is not among the most viable ways to have a reliable answer, but in a few years things can change,or in a few months, it is known that many programmers are working day and night to get an AI that is the main ticket to be able to win lotteries, casinos, whatever, I don't know if they are more advanced than openia, but surely they are close,especially those criminals who like to leave to offline sites for stealing your funds.

That's something doable in my opinion as well, we can't measure the potential as there are smart people who really working behind and trying to make a good use of AI system, we can only imagine how wide the capabilities if in case that it really developed the way it's intentionally been done, though I also believe that in gambling industry, there are always good ways for the casino to improve and adjust and for sure they will not let AI bankrupt them.

A big possibility is that they will also create or program their business by the use of AI system to counter the advantages or possible edge from their end users.

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Quote from: flyingcarpet on May 06, 2023, 09:35:38 AM

Using artificial intelligence for predictions is a big mistake in my opinion. I give an example for football. There are thousands of possibilities for a position in the match. All the data obtained according to the logic of artificial intelligence are analyzed and an estimate emerges, but even this is insufficient. Because there is the luck factor. The luck factor makes predictability impossible. So I'm talking about 100% accurate predictability. Otherwise, it is quite normal for him to make inferences and say logical results based on the data at hand.

But we can make artificial intelligence guess for fun. It's also fun to follow. Sometimes I show off to my friends when the correct results come out. Because I was able to make this prediction thanks to artificial intelligence. Still, these predictions should not go beyond entertainment.

I think that using an AI at the moment for the prediction is indeed a big mistake, because it is not among the most viable ways to have a reliable answer, but in a few years things can change,or in a few months, it is known that many programmers are working day and night to get an AI that is the main ticket to be able to win lotteries, casinos, whatever, I don't know if they are more advanced than openia, but surely they are close,especially those criminals who like to leave to offline sites for stealing your funds.

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Quote from: AicecreaME on May 17, 2023, 07:49:17 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on May 17, 2023, 03:00:25 AM

~

AI can really be used in various fields. It's purpose is not solely for gambling prediction since there are numerous AIs that has proven this already. AIs can be used in programming, for business pages, for school-related activities, and many more. It will just be a little more convenient if AI can be used for predicting the game's outcome especially in sports betting that needs past and present data to arrive at an answer of percentage of winning against the other teams. Although as for me, it's still better to make it as a reference and not a sole source of information especially when it comes to decision making that involves a very important matter and money.

Yes, following AI's recommendations blindly isn't a good way to go. We should apply corrections from our side, if we feel we need to. But it is possible, imo, is that we'll see that more often than not we are losing exactly because of those corrections. I'm not saying it will necessarily be like that, but it's possible, in my opinion. Anyway, it's not like that yet. Only time will tell.

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Quote from: wxa7115 on May 23, 2023, 09:21:33 PM

Quote from: nullama on May 23, 2023, 06:12:58 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 23, 2023, 07:21:36 AM

~snip~
the solution for fake news is not the truth or regulating what people see, but educating people on developing critical sense
unfortunately in places like Brazil the people will be doomed... RIP democracies.

maybe some other countries will escape it

the level of video and audio deepfakes now is already absurd.

Yeah, I agree.

But at the end of the day it's very hard to fact check every single line you read, you need some level of trust to actually live a normal life.

That's the whole point of having reputable sources, you can trust that what they're publishing went through some checks.

But yeah, at the end of the day we still need to have our own filters, and I think most people don't have that, specially with things like ChatGPT saying false things so sure about itself.

Unfortunately those sources are not to be trusted either, while it is very difficult for a news agency to remain impartial and neutral, the truth is that most of them do not even try anymore and everything they report has a very strong bias, and this has caused people to stop trusting them.

Now this is sooner or later going to create a huge problem of trust among the whole society as now we cannot even trust our eyes as everything that we see could be manipulated with the use of AI, a scenario similar to the one depicted on the novel 1984.

Perhaps, that's what triggers some countries to want to regulate the use of AI because of misinformation about the news they want to find. And this makes many developers continue to work hard to improve AI to provide more valid information and not provide wrong information to users. And we as users have to be more careful in using AI, and we also have to have more sources that can provide additional information about the news we are looking for. Before we use AI to predict the results, we must compare the information obtained by AI with the information we get to know whether the information is valid or have to look for additional information.

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Quote from: nullama on May 23, 2023, 06:12:58 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 23, 2023, 07:21:36 AM

~snip~
the solution for fake news is not the truth or regulating what people see, but educating people on developing critical sense
unfortunately in places like Brazil the people will be doomed... RIP democracies.

maybe some other countries will escape it

the level of video and audio deepfakes now is already absurd.

Yeah, I agree.

But at the end of the day it's very hard to fact check every single line you read, you need some level of trust to actually live a normal life.

That's the whole point of having reputable sources, you can trust that what they're publishing went through some checks.

But yeah, at the end of the day we still need to have our own filters, and I think most people don't have that, specially with things like ChatGPT saying false things so sure about itself.

Unfortunately those sources are not to be trusted either, while it is very difficult for a news agency to remain impartial and neutral, the truth is that most of them do not even try anymore and everything they report has a very strong bias, and this has caused people to stop trusting them.

Now this is sooner or later going to create a huge problem of trust among the whole society as now we cannot even trust our eyes as everything that we see could be manipulated with the use of AI, a scenario similar to the one depicted on the novel 1984.

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Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 23, 2023, 07:21:36 AM

~snip~
the solution for fake news is not the truth or regulating what people see, but educating people on developing critical sense
unfortunately in places like Brazil the people will be doomed... RIP democracies.

maybe some other countries will escape it

the level of video and audio deepfakes now is already absurd.

Yeah, I agree.

But at the end of the day it's very hard to fact check every single line you read, you need some level of trust to actually live a normal life.

That's the whole point of having reputable sources, you can trust that what they're publishing went through some checks.

But yeah, at the end of the day we still need to have our own filters, and I think most people don't have that, specially with things like ChatGPT saying false things so sure about itself.

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Quote from: nullama on May 22, 2023, 06:15:39 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 22, 2023, 03:08:37 PM

~snip~
definitely, I agree
have you checked autoGPT too? lots of people building on top of chatGPT, including automated bots and integrating services with each other
quite interesting stuff going on
worth to check

Yeah, automation of text interaction has been happening for some years, but now it's on steroids!

There will definitely be areas in which this will be great, but for example for news I see this is a potential catastrophic problem.

The creation and distribution of fake news is a very important problem, and I'm not sure there's a good solution to it.

the solution for fake news is not the truth or regulating what people see, but educating people on developing critical sense
unfortunately in places like Brazil the people will be doomed... RIP democracies.

maybe some other countries will escape it

the level of video and audio deepfakes now is already absurd.

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Quote from: nullama on May 22, 2023, 06:15:39 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 22, 2023, 03:08:37 PM

~snip~
definitely, I agree
have you checked autoGPT too? lots of people building on top of chatGPT, including automated bots and integrating services with each other
quite interesting stuff going on
worth to check

Yeah, automation of text interaction has been happening for some years, but now it's on steroids!

There will definitely be areas in which this will be great, but for example for news I see this is a potential catastrophic problem.

The creation and distribution of fake news is a very important problem, and I'm not sure there's a good solution to it.

Honestly I used chatgpt once to study my courses. Its answers were sometimes wrong but overall wording was very believable. I am worried with fake news in future as well. I think this can manipulate gambling too like, people with bad intentions may initially develop chat bots that will give you stupid/wrong suggestions. Just like bots we see in trading. But I am sure ai like chatgpt will be developed to gather data to guess about sports betting.

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Quote from: Lucasgabd on May 22, 2023, 03:08:37 PM

~snip~
definitely, I agree
have you checked autoGPT too? lots of people building on top of chatGPT, including automated bots and integrating services with each other
quite interesting stuff going on
worth to check

Yeah, automation of text interaction has been happening for some years, but now it's on steroids!

There will definitely be areas in which this will be great, but for example for news I see this is a potential catastrophic problem.

The creation and distribution of fake news is a very important problem, and I'm not sure there's a good solution to it.

Topic: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes - page 20. (Read 10120 times)