Topic: Portuguese League - Liga Portugal 2022/23 - page 4. (Read 4603 times)

For me this round is pretty easy to predict, with victory for all the top 4, Benfica, Porto, Braga and Sporting
The multiple bet on the 4 gives 2.05 odds, I find it difficult to give something wrong since all 4 teams need to win.
The only thing that can mess up a little is the nervousness of this final round, since a mistake can cost something valuable for any team
Special detail on the team of Braga that can not make another mistake and lose another game, otherwise it is at risk the 3rd place and the classification for the qualifying round of the Champions League

I still believe in Benfica's title while you are betting that Porto will win hahaha, I don't think Benfica will lose any remaining match.

Only 3 games left for the end of the championship, and everything is still open.
The champion is yet to be decided. Places for European competitions are still open. And there may still be changes in devision descent places.

Here is the table, at the start of matchday 32:

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Draws	Lost	G.For	G.Against	G.Difference	Points
1	Benfica	31	26	2	3	72	17	55	80
2	Porto	31	24	4	3	64	19	45	76
3	Sporting Braga	31	23	2	6	66	26	40	71
4	Sporting CP	31	21	4	6	65	28	37	67
5	Arouca	31	13	9	9	33	35	-2	48
6	Vitória SC	31	14	5	12	32	36	-4	47
7	Chaves	31	11	10	10	32	35	-3	43
8	Famalicão	31	13	3	15	35	41	-6	42
9	Casa Pia	31	11	7	13	28	35	-7	40
10	Boavista	32	11	7	14	38	52	-14	40
11	Vizela	31	11	6	14	33	35	-2	39
12	Rio Ave	31	10	9	12	33	37	-4	39
13	Portimonense	31	10	4	17	24	40	-16	34
14	Gil Vicente	32	9	7	16	31	40	-9	34
15	Estoril	31	8	4	19	26	46	-20	28
16	Marítimo	31	6	5	20	29	58	-29	23
17	Paços de Ferreira	31	5	5	21	23	56	-33	20
18	Santa Clara	31	4	7	20	22	50	-28	19

I also agree that Porto will win every game until the end of the season, either easily or with "some" help from penalties, Porto will win. Out of curiosity, a study concluded that Porto is the fourth team in world football that has had the most penalties since January 2020.

Benfica will have more difficulty, for several reasons, one of them being the fact that they still have to play against Sporting. But, Benfica's margin of error is very small, they cannot miss more than one game.

Yes, Porto this season was really irregular and not only in results im talking about goal efficacy, i see a lot of games of them pushing a lot and not making goals.

Agaisnt Arouca you can check also that, only 1-0 against a poor team, and they were full dominant.

in the portuguese league anything can happen in favor of porto, this advantage of benfica is nothing in the portuguese league mainly when there are only 4 points of difference with porto, in the times that porto becomes champion, benfica for some time was in front but after losing against porto they started a sequence of defeats that allowed porto to have a big difference in points in relation to benfica and with that porto always has a high reputation, it happens that this season porto is very weak compared to last seasons and what makes me think that they are using dirty tricks is the fact that they have many penalties in many games, but that doesn't mean that porto always do that, last season they were clearly very strong

As in the Portuguese league, Porto has dominated lately and Benfica has a lot of profit from selling players, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Porto using schemes to win games this season, we'll see if Benfica really wins in the next game. and we will see if porto will lose any of the next games, it will be easy to check if there is any manipulation or not, all we need is to be watching the next remaining games, but I do not consider this number of more than 80% chance of benfica being champion as a real number in practice, for me porto has more chances of being champion than benfica


this season it is very strange all porto games, in this last porto game against arouca, it seemed that arouca had no interest in winning the game, it was a very strange game for me and as expected porto won

Yes, there's 3 more matches to Benfica and 4 matches to Porto
Max points Porto can reach is 85, winning all 4 remaining matches, while Benfica has 3 matches and need to score 6 points to guarantee the title
Benfica will play against Portimonense, Sporting and Santa Clara, I think 2 wins and 1 draw is ok for Benfica
I also think Porto will get these 12 points and ends the championship in this way:

Benfica - 87 points
Porto - 85 points


I only said about the mathematical chances, but I agree, of 3 opponents only 1 can win Benfica in my opinion, Sporting of course, and I think the championship is going to end like I wrote above.
You can bet on 4 wins of Porto, they need to guarantee the second place to Champions League next year

benfica's narrow 1-0 victory over braga, making them currently get 80 points while porto which is in position 2 managed to collect 73 points it seems that benfica is only a few percent away from becoming the Portuguese league champion. benfica's opponent on the next matchday is portimonense, it seems they are not a tough opponent for benfica. congrats to benfica, they are very tough and deserve to be champions.

If you want to look at it from a purely mathematical point of view, the 82.5% might be correct, but I think that the chances are more going towards 90%. Benfica either has to win two out of three or win one and tie two out of three. But even that only applies whebn Porto wins all of their games. When you now also take into account that they have an over 90% rate of not losing, I believe that it would extremely rarely happen that Benfica would still give away the title in a situation like this. Your statistic leans more towards four out of five times, but I would rather stick with perhaps once in ten times.

Undoubtedly this was the most important game for Benfica to be more likely to win the championship.
This victory over Braga certainly gave the team more morale for the next games, and created more pressure for Porto.

It is enough for Benfica to win two more games in the championship and it is won. And there's still room to lose a game, since there's still the game against Sporting, which won't be easy.

I was able to watch the match, and as I imagined, it was a very tight and difficult match. Even though Benfica had more shots and more possession, it was a very difficult match, especially given what was at stake.
This match was one of those that are worth "more than 3 points" hehehe, I don't know if it's too early to say, but it was probably the most important match of this end of the championship for Benfica, and probably the one that will help them the most for the title.
I didn't place any bets on this match to thinking it too difficult to predict.

Now Benfica has 82.5% title chances while Porto has only 17.5%. Braga has no more mathematical chances.

It's very important win for Benfica, after game ended, it was visible how much it matters for Benfica players. In general, it was difficult game, but Benfica were better. Maybe these stats isn't key thing, but Benfica xG stats is impressive - 3.63, it says a lot about game.
Now I don't see scenario how Benfica can't win title this season.

That's not going to happen and I am sure this relief for Benfica means such a huge relief to them. It could have become very close as you said, but Benfica deserved this one as they were the better team in many respects. But still mental pressure can force you into unnecessary mistakes any time and that would have been risky against Braga. Now Benfica really would have to screw it up to still give Porto a chance. They knew about the importance of this game and they did their job.

I'm also waiting for this game. If Braga somehow would manage to win, it would make remaining few rounds such interesting. Not only fight for the title but also it would increase chances for Braga to reach 2nd place. Lineups for the game already announced and it's good to see that both teams have almost optimal squads. I really want to see Braga win, but my brains says that Benfica will win. And I think that it makes sense to go with over 2.5 goals on this game.

I didn't follow the Portuguese championship very much in the previous years, but because of the bets I started to take a better look at this championship and I was quite surprised too
But I'm not only talking about Porto, but the dominance of the quartet: Porto, Benfica, Sporting and Braga
For 6 seasons now the championship always ends with these 4 teams in the top 4
And in the last 8 seasons, only Vitória managed to finish 4th in 2016/2017.
For us bettors, it is easier to get the results right and that is why it attracted me a lot.


Let's see how this season ends. I doubt that Porto can be champion because Benfica only depends on itself to win. But some of Porto's results are really strange


I have already put a reminder not to miss this match, I am looking forward to watch, it has everything to be a tough and great match to watch because the importance for Benfica and also for Braga to continue in the fight for the Champions League classification

And the same thing happened in this week's game for the Portuguese Cup.
At 21 minutes, Famalicão scores and ties the tie.
At 27 minutes penalty for Porto - goal.
At 75 minutes, Famalicão scored again and tied the tie.
At 120+1 minutes (extra minutes in extra time???) Porto scores and goes to the front of the tie.

---

This weekend is the decisive game for Benfica. It will play against Braga, and if it loses points, the championship will be very difficult.

 

it's unbelievable how in portugal soccer is dominated by porto, last season when porto was at the top they didn't have to worry in the last league games, they became champions long before the games ended, this season benfica got an advantage very considerable in relation to Porto, but as expected, Benfica started to lose points, but the very scary part is that Porto, which was going through bad times, lost against weak opponents, started from nothing to win games, but the victories they weren't even convincing, there was always some controversy like a penalty in favor of porto or a red card to porto's opponent, and with that porto managed to stay very close to benfica, unbelievable

just to summarize a little the miracles of the porto:

porto 1 - 0 boavista

porto benefited from a penalty, so that the staging was good, boavista was reduced to 10 players but in the 66 minutes

Pacos ferreira 0 - 2 porto

paços ferreira player had a red card at 45 minutes, and guess what came next? yes, you guessed it, Porto benefited from a penalty in the 66th minute.

porto 2 - 1 santa clara

guess what? yes, Porto benefited from a penalty kick in the 34th minute

It is very strange that Porto games constantly benefit from a draw or a red card.

Porto had very difficult game against Boa Vista, but they achieved 1:0 win. They failed to make any shots on target for almost 60 minutes, until penalty was awarded. Taremi goal from 11 m mark was only Porto shot on target in whole game, in remaining 30 minutes they didn't createdd nothing dangerous. Not enough, Marcano got straight red card few minutes after Porto goal. It can be justified, otherwise Boa Vista player would went 1 on 1 with goalkeeper.
Sporting win against Famalicao wasn't easy too. They didn't dominated that much, but had 2:0 lead when Coates scored own goal - it was such bad luck for him.
It wasn't easy round for favorites. With 4 rounds remaining, fight for 1st place is still alive, same like for 2nd place, while Sporting need miracle to reach Braga in 3rd place.

In my opinion Benfica finally won a match without too much problem and could have won by more goals
Benfica had 2 annulled goals, at 22 minutes and 32 minutes approximately (merit of the Gil Vicente defense).
After this match, curiously Braga also passed Porto in the classification, even though Porto has one less match (will play today) now the pressure is on Porto.

It is important that Benfica goes to the match against Braga with the moral higher. I even consider a draw a very good result for Benfica.
The bet on the TOP 4 is almost working, it already worked with Benfica and Braga, all that is missing is Porto and Sporting victories.

These last matches of the championship are very exciting, 3 teams still have a chance to be the champion, and the qualification for the Champions League / Conference League qualifiers are not yet set.

I watched a bit of Gil Vicente - Benfica game and it was really dull. xG stats is impressive - 0.07 for Gil Vicente and just 0.13 for Benfica. I think  I haven't see anything similar from Benfica this season. It worked in favour of Gil Vicente, they wrre close to achieve positive result, but Benfica still managed to score 2 goals in last 20 minutes. Very important win for Benfica, but they still have 2 very difficult games remaining.
Earlier today Braga won easy against Portimonense. It's important win for them in fight for 3rd ppace, but actually they still have chance to finish 2nd and get spot in CL group stage.

We have entered the last 5 weeks of the Portuguese league and it is worth mentioning that the matches will be more stressful from now on. It is worth mentioning that the point difference between Benfica and 3rd ranked Braga is 6 and this point difference can be closed in 2 matches. Therefore, in the last 5 matches to be played, the 3 teams in this championship race will not have a chance to make mistakes. Since these teams will play more cautiously, the matches may be more stressful.