Hi,
I've seen similar sites and I just don't understand it well enough. Say I want to say YES for an item and it theres a green "BID" price and a red "sell" price, which would I pick? I assume it would be the green one or something. And my payout would be 10? Its confusing to me. I wish they just said click here if you want yes, you pay this. Click here if you want no you pay this price. Payout is always 10mbtc. Please explain it for me, I apologize but would like to give your site a shot once I understand it better.
Topic: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! - page 20. (Read 33340 times)
August 06, 2013, 05:08:22 AM
August 05, 2013, 09:11:11 AM
Hey, just found out about this site and I am very excited for it. I was a huge fan of inTrade and have been waiting for a BTC replacement. Following up on the above comment, will you only be entertaining markets which have a set close date? I understand the difficulty in settling markets with a "floating" close, but excluding them will cut out many potentially popular ones. Is there any chance you will be including them going forward? Such markets which were present on inTrade or follow the inTrade spirit (most with "floating" close dates):
- North Korean military action market/Kim Jong-Un leadership market
- Edward Snowden/Julian Assange asylum market
- Global Warming market
- Extra-terrestrial market
- Iran/US conflict market
- Bashaar Assad presidency market
- North Korean military action market/Kim Jong-Un leadership market
- Edward Snowden/Julian Assange asylum market
- Global Warming market
- Extra-terrestrial market
- Iran/US conflict market
- Bashaar Assad presidency market
August 05, 2013, 08:36:14 AM
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added:
- EUR-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- GBP-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- Dow Jones Industrial Average close August 30th 2013
- Close price of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) on August 30th 2013
and we'll consider adding more.
Great. Now what you need are market makers. Nobody wants to trade a thin market and nobody wants large (or non-existent) bid-ask spreads. Normally the way to kick-start this a bit is by getting a few pro traders to create a market by entering multiple orders. This increases liquidity and makes trading more attractive.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp
Good market makers can generate a steady profit, just like good bookies. If you can attract a few of them to your site, you will ensure more liquidity and market depth, making it much more interesting for punters, and a much more efficient prediction market.
Either that... or get a dozen Beta-testers and give away a few BTC on the condition that they bet on every single statement.
As a trader who is very much fed up with the paperwork involved in traditional fx, options, equity trading platforms... I am very much looking forward to your success. If you can tap into the FX market, you could be huge.
Thanks for your feedback, we are working with a few people interested in doing market making for a few specific markets. We also have a Trading API for people who wants to become maket makers for Predictious.
Uh... the event date for all of these bets seems wrong:
https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale
The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.
https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale
The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.
Yes, but in theory, the characters may die at any episode. People can't all watch it at the same time (as opposed to a sport event), and we don't want to favor people who can watch it "live".
August 05, 2013, 07:45:16 AM
Uh... the event date for all of these bets seems wrong:
https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale
The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.
https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale
The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.
August 05, 2013, 06:21:18 AM
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added:
- EUR-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- GBP-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- Dow Jones Industrial Average close August 30th 2013
- Close price of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) on August 30th 2013
and we'll consider adding more.
Great. Now what you need are market makers. Nobody wants to trade a thin market and nobody wants large (or non-existent) bid-ask spreads. Normally the way to kick-start this a bit is by getting a few pro traders to create a market by entering multiple orders. This increases liquidity and makes trading more attractive.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp
Good market makers can generate a steady profit, just like good bookies. If you can attract a few of them to your site, you will ensure more liquidity and market depth, making it much more interesting for punters, and a much more efficient prediction market.
Either that... or get a dozen Beta-testers and give away a few BTC on the condition that they bet on every single statement.
As a trader who is very much fed up with the paperwork involved in traditional fx, options, equity trading platforms... I am very much looking forward to your success. If you can tap into the FX market, you could be huge.
August 04, 2013, 06:34:54 AM
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added:
- EUR-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- GBP-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- Dow Jones Industrial Average close August 30th 2013
- Close price of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) on August 30th 2013
and we'll consider adding more.
August 04, 2013, 03:36:17 AM
Sounds interesting
August 03, 2013, 09:54:10 PM
Cheap (?) hedging! Although not just for stocks. May be more useful with the price of Bitcoin itself.
August 03, 2013, 05:33:45 PM
We now have the following new markets on Predictious:
Business:
Business:
- Close price of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) on August 9th 2013
- Close price of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) on August 9th 2013
Eventually you should have at least
...the top 3 Nasdaq stocks by mkt cap. ( http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap_mega&o=-marketcap)
*AAPL
*GOOG
*MSFT
...top 3 NYSE
*XOM
*JNJ
*WMT
...top 3 currency pairs (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/)
*EURUSD
*USDJPY
*USDCHF
...and top 3 commodities (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/)
*Gold
*Oil
*Copper
Also
*US 10 yr T-Bond yield http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
But perhaps a weekly bet for each is too much... monthly maybe?
August 03, 2013, 05:00:38 PM
We now have the following new markets on Predictious:
Bitcoin:
Business:
Sport:
Bitcoin:
- Price of Bitcoin on Aug 13th 2013 10pm UTC
- Bitcoin Maximum before September 30th 2013
- Next difficulty increase of the Bitcoin network
Business:
- Close price of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) on August 9th 2013
- Close price of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) on August 9th 2013
Sport:
August 02, 2013, 01:41:23 AM
Nice, you should look at some of competitors for ideas to add more events also, so you can see what's popular.
Or a Small bounty for unique ideas that generate a lot of bets...
!> 122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n Heh!
I think one of the older Prediction markets did that at one time, not sure if it's still ongoing.
August 01, 2013, 12:02:53 PM
Nice, you should look at some of competitors for ideas to add more events also, so you can see what's popular.
Or a Small bounty for unique ideas that generate a lot of bets...
!> 122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n Heh!
August 01, 2013, 04:38:17 AM
Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.
So that I can compare yours and others.
About 4~6 would be fine.
So that I can compare yours and others.
Hi Coinprize,
here are the 2 other Bitcoin prediction markets we know of: bitbet.us and betsofbitco.in, however they use bet pooling, which is unfair for early traders and doesn't allow you to trade out of your position (with Predictious, the users set the odds themselves, and they can sell their bets before the event ends).
There are also a few sport Bitcoin betting sites: nitrogensports.com, bitbook.biz, anonibet.com.
Betfair would be our biggest competitor in the fiat currency world.
Hope this helps, don't hesitate if you have any further questions.
Nice, you should look at some of competitors for ideas to add more events also, so you can see what's popular.
July 30, 2013, 04:47:20 PM
Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.
So that I can compare yours and others.
About 4~6 would be fine.
So that I can compare yours and others.
Hi Coinprize,
here are the 2 other Bitcoin prediction markets we know of: bitbet.us and betsofbitco.in, however they use bet pooling, which is unfair for early traders and doesn't allow you to trade out of your position (with Predictious, the users set the odds themselves, and they can sell their bets before the event ends).
There are also a few sport Bitcoin betting sites: nitrogensports.com, bitbook.biz, anonibet.com.
Betfair would be our biggest competitor in the fiat currency world.
Hope this helps, don't hesitate if you have any further questions.
July 30, 2013, 03:44:15 PM
The Premier.. 
Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.
So that I can compare yours and others.
Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.
So that I can compare yours and others.
July 29, 2013, 04:24:15 PM
Predictious - The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market.
Predictious has launched on July 11th 2013, we are starting this official thread as we would love you to try and win Bitcoins! Please also provide feedback, we really want to hear suggestions on how we can make it better.
A true Prediction Market:
Predictious is a true Prediction Market, similar to a futures exchange. Here are two big advantages for users to bet on Predictious and not on the other betting websites:
- Users decide on the odds. If their prediction is right, they will win mBTC10 (= BTC0.01) per share. Most if not all other websites use a pari-mutuel betting system: all bets are placed in a pool, and when the outcome of the event is determined, the winners share the funds in that pool, which is very unfair for early traders (the odds may change over time).
- Predictious is like a stock market, users don't have to wait for the event to occur, they can re-sell their shares whenever they want, to unlock profit early.
Why you should use Predictious:
- Win Bitcoins: Bet on an event to occur, win Bitcoins if you're right. Bitcoins will be transferred into your Predictious account as soon as the event is resolved. Read more on how to make money with Predictious.
- Guaranteed odds: Predictious users choose how many shares they want to buy, and what price they are willing to pay for each share (between 0 and mBTC10). If their prediction is correct, they win mBTC10 per share. More on how to buy shares with Predictious.
- No Maximum: Is you're certain an event is going to occur, bet on Predictious any amount you want, you will win mBTC10 per share.
- Unlock profits (or cut losses) early and speculate: Users have the possibility to re-sell their shares before the event date, allowing them to make a profit immediately regardless of the outcome of the event. Read more on how to sell the shares you've bought.
- Secure:
- Predictious is protected by SSL.
- Each user has a unique Bitcoin wallet address to transfer Bitcoins to. Read more on how to transfer Bitcoins to your Predictious account.
- Predictious users only need a Google Account to sign in. Google has one of the most secure authentication service in the industry. Users also have the possibility to enable two steps authentication. Read more about Predictious login.
- Short selling: If users think an event will not occur, they can buy short shares (equivalent to selling long shares). Short shares resolve at mBTC10 when the event doesn't occur.
- Transparent: At any time, users can see their balance, positions, open orders, transaction history, resolved contracts. Predictious also offers visibility into the market depth for each contract.
- No minimum to transfer or withdraw: Users can transfer any amount of Bitcoin to their Predictious account.
- No Transfer Fee: Predictious doesn't take any fee when you transfer or withdraw money. Read more about Predictious fees.
- Minimum Bet: The minimum bet for a share is as low as BTC0.00001 = mBTC0.01.
- Predictious API: Predictious also offers an API for users willing to do market making.
Categories::
- Sports (American Football, Basketball, Tennis, etc.)
- Politics (2016 American Elections, Next US FED chairman, etc.)
- Economics (Price of Bitcoins, etc.)
- Entertainement (Movies gross, Emmy Awards, Music Awards, etc.)
- Science & Tech (Lumia vs Samsung, etc.)
- Business (Facebook stock price, etc.)
Useful Links::
Predictious Official website
Predictious Support Center Support Center
Contact the Predictious team Contact
Predictious API
@Predictious Twitter
Predictious Facebook page
Predictious on Google+
Screenshots::
Again, you can try Predictious with only a few millibitcoins (mBTC1 = BTC0.001), all you need is a Google Account.
Please post here any question you may have and/or feedback.
Jump to: