Topic: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! - page 13. (Read 33358 times)
February 23, 2014, 11:56:07 AM
February 22, 2014, 09:19:56 AM
February 20, 2014, 06:12:56 PM
just tried to visit site for first time and could not access site. Obviously not impressed.
We had a temporary outage due to an issue with our DNS host, this is now resolved.
February 20, 2014, 06:03:48 PM
just tried to visit site for first time and could not access site. Obviously not impressed.
February 20, 2014, 05:45:56 PM
It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.
Thanks for the suggestion! We've now added the following market:
We'll add more if this gets popular.
I'd like to bring some liquidity to your order book, but I can't figure out how to log into your site. I do not have a google account and can't get one.
I, too tried to log in yesterday to make my first trades, but stopped when it looked like I was forced to go through Google.
Yes, you do need a google account, it only takes a few minutes to create one, and if privacy is a concern you do not have to enter your real name when creating it.
Here are the reasons why we've decided to use google for our authentication system.
February 20, 2014, 11:47:24 AM
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:
Thanks for the quick response!
I'd like to bring some liquidity to your order book, but I can't figure out how to log into your site. I do not have a google account and can't get one.
I, too tried to log in yesterday to make my first trades, but stopped when it looked like I was forced to go through Google.
February 20, 2014, 02:56:52 AM
It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.
I can understand why predictious might not want to create zillions of contracts with every possible combination of date/time/price… it clutters up the list of contracts and it looks bad for them to have markets with empty order books.
One thing they might consider is offering "meta markets" consisting of a contract term with variables ("mtgox price to fall below $X before date Y") and display only those variable combinations for which there are orders on the order book. As long as the API presents this in a sensible way people will step up with market-maker bots across the variable combinations, for a spread… sorta like how the banks keep the order books for the options market full by using Black-Scholes and subtracting out their fee (which manifests itself as the nontrivial bid/ask spread you always see on options markets). That way when an infrequent end user shows up and wants a specific kind of hedge there's always some depth there waiting for them.
February 20, 2014, 02:51:11 AM
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:
Thanks for the quick response!
I'd like to bring some liquidity to your order book, but I can't figure out how to log into your site. I do not have a google account and can't get one.
February 20, 2014, 02:36:14 AM
1) As everybody knows, mtgox is having serious liquidity problems. This post could very easily become obsolete in the next few hours, but...
It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.
Basically, if you look at mtgox prices on the exchange, and you compare them with what people are offering for goxed coins on the "mtgox <-> btc bid/ask" thread here, there has been a huge overlap. It would seem that lots of people should be willing to do trades, but either ignorance or high transaction costs (e.g. fear of getting scammed or being unsure about escrow) is preventing them.
Now, market manipulation might be a problem, conceivably, except that your order books are so thin that that kind of seems like the tail wagging the dog.
Bets for mtgox insolvency is helpful, but I think bets on hitting certain price points would generate a lot of interest. You could publicize it widely: tell a reporter at Wired and I bet they would put up a story right away. I think people would trade, and a lot of people would be happy.
thanks
I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).
Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:
It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.
Basically, if you look at mtgox prices on the exchange, and you compare them with what people are offering for goxed coins on the "mtgox <-> btc bid/ask" thread here, there has been a huge overlap. It would seem that lots of people should be willing to do trades, but either ignorance or high transaction costs (e.g. fear of getting scammed or being unsure about escrow) is preventing them.
Now, market manipulation might be a problem, conceivably, except that your order books are so thin that that kind of seems like the tail wagging the dog.
Bets for mtgox insolvency is helpful, but I think bets on hitting certain price points would generate a lot of interest. You could publicize it widely: tell a reporter at Wired and I bet they would put up a story right away. I think people would trade, and a lot of people would be happy.
thanks
Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.
I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).
Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:
February 19, 2014, 03:06:30 PM
February 18, 2014, 05:11:30 PM
Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.
I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).
Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:
February 14, 2014, 10:33:12 AM
Wow, this is great, I've wanted a site like this for soooo long. Can't believe I didn't find out about it until now.
Please bump this up your priority list. The strange fee structure risks distorting the markets. Why not something simple like X% of each transaction and Y% of each redemption? You'll probably be able to charge higher fees by skewing towards lower X and higher Y; from the customer's perspective fees on winning shares are easy to account for, simply treat it as a reduced reward. Really the per-transaction fees should be just barely high enough to prevent silly HFT-churn-trading; setting them too high discourages arbitrage.
I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).
Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.
1) We are considering a slight change in the fee structure to make it more interesting for extremely low or high probabilities (along the lines of what you are suggesting).
Please bump this up your priority list. The strange fee structure risks distorting the markets. Why not something simple like X% of each transaction and Y% of each redemption? You'll probably be able to charge higher fees by skewing towards lower X and higher Y; from the customer's perspective fees on winning shares are easy to account for, simply treat it as a reduced reward. Really the per-transaction fees should be just barely high enough to prevent silly HFT-churn-trading; setting them too high discourages arbitrage.
Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.
I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).
Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.
February 11, 2014, 12:28:32 PM
Quote
Trading: The trading fee structure is as follow for all contracts with a starting date post January 25th 2014:
For shares bought or sold between m฿0 and m฿0.25: ฿0.00001 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿0.25 and m฿1: ฿0.00005 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿1 and m฿9: ฿0.0001 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿9 and m฿9.75: ฿0.00005 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿9.75 and m฿10: ฿0.00001 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿0 and m฿0.25: ฿0.00001 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿0.25 and m฿1: ฿0.00005 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿1 and m฿9: ฿0.0001 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿9 and m฿9.75: ฿0.00005 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿9.75 and m฿10: ฿0.00001 per share
You list the nominal amount in millibits, but the fee in bitcoins. Why would you do that? Not only does it make it harder to see what's going on, but it sure does make the fee look small...
Sorry for the confusion, we've now updated everything to millibitcoins: https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222008
Thanks for the quick fix. There's one more thing you could do to clarify, which is, if a trade happens at e.g. *exactly* 0.25mB, what is the fee? In other words, what is the fee on the boundaries?
February 09, 2014, 01:32:28 PM
Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.
Thanks for the suggestion, we will look into it.
February 09, 2014, 01:22:32 PM
Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.
February 09, 2014, 09:24:51 AM
February 09, 2014, 06:56:15 AM
February 08, 2014, 10:37:26 AM
February 07, 2014, 02:02:56 PM
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