Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 35.

RoloTonyBrownTown

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: Jan on July 05, 2012, 06:27:18 PM

Quote from: N12 on July 05, 2012, 06:07:00 PM

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 04:01:23 PM

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 03:55:39 PM

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 02:58:44 PM

I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow. When your funds hit the escrow let me know.

I'll add 3k BTC to this, same escrow, same terms (except Vandroiy = Blitz), so I can also "put my money where my mouth is". Agree?

Time for popcorn, this is going to be interesting!

Bahaha, brilliant Cheesy

Man, it's going to be a long wait until Oct 2013 for the hilarity. That's assuming Vandroiy actually comes through obviously.

chunglam

donator

Activity: 229

Merit: 106

Quote from: ?? on ??

Vandroiy may know the "red flags" of ponzi, but he should learn the "red flags" of poker. The guy have pocket aces in his hands, and is looking to see how much money he can get.

He can use GLBSE to share the risk with other anti-pirate forum members

phelix

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1020

Quote from: ?? on ??

Vandroiy may know the "red flags" of ponzi, but he should learn the "red flags" of poker. The guy have pocket aces in his hands, and is looking to see how much money he can get.

Anyway, that is completely insane, and I love it! Grin

+1 to both

For maximum impact on our great vision the money should only go to a charity that accepts Bitcoin donations.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Weak sauce. I haven't seen pirate force anyone to a specific value. He's just accepted all challenges. The fact that the accusers are Lilliputian shouldn't matter.

As a bystander, I'm not really that interested in whether Pirate alone is willing to take this wager. As I mentioned before, it's no big loss to him if he is running a Ponzi scheme if it keeps investor confidence high, and if he is legit then it's a risk free bet to him. I took it as read that he'd want to wager something.

It's his investors I'm interested in. There seem to be as many as there are detractors. By selling bonds to either side, the price movements of the bonds would let anyone gauge the current confidence in BS&T.

A simple one to one bet between Pirate and Vandroiy might make them both feel better, but no one else can participate without it requiring a public platform one which to show the accounting. GLBSE already does that.

pirateat40

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 10:55:39 PM

One on One? I want One vs Anyone but I want his name on it.

"his"? Are you implying that women would not be stupid enough to waste their time or assets on this dick–oh, I got it.

pirateat40

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 10:52:33 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 08:38:34 PM

Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;

Exactly why it should not be used. Vandroiy and others have ~~has~~ given a value to their ~~his~~ opinion. If they he no longer values the opinion that much, then it's clear their ~~his~~ resolve is not aligned with their ~~his~~ public, criminal, possibly libelous, accusations.

Whether or not BS&T is legit, Pirate will be easily able to silence dissenters by making the cost too high for any one individual to bear. This makes the wager asymmetric. I agree that there should be something that the "Pirate will default" group should risk, but not going one on one against a financial giant.

Otherwise it's like accusing Miguel Torres of a rape, but instead of court you get to go one on one with him in a cage match.

One on One? I want One vs Anyone but I want his name on it.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 08:38:34 PM

Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;

Exactly why it should not be used. Vandroiy and others have ~~has~~ given a value to their ~~his~~ opinion. If they he no longer values the opinion that much, then it's clear their ~~his~~ resolve is not aligned with their ~~his~~ public, criminal, possibly libelous, accusations.

Whether or not BS&T is legit, Pirate will be easily able to silence dissenters by making the cost too high for any one individual to bear. This makes the wager asymmetric. I agree that there should be something that the "Pirate will default" group should risk, but not going one on one against a financial giant.

Otherwise it's like accusing Miguel Torres of a rape, but instead of court you get to go one on one with him in a cage match.

pirateat40

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 08:38:34 PM

Not using a platform like GLBSE means an advantage to Pirate. If he does run a Ponzi, he has access to (and can afford to lose) much more cash than Vandroiy can.

Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;
2. The amounts wagered on either side could be dissimilar without a significant change in risk;
3. trading of bonds and their relative prices could be a good indicator of informed public opinion (well, public opinion, anyway) .

I understand Pirate won't use GLBSE, but a bunch of his supporters will. I still think a paired bond like proposed in the OP would be a good way to proceed, and let more people in on the wager.

This is me vs the anti-me. GLBSE doesn't allow that to happen and requires more trust than just using Nanotube.

Serge

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

Yup. Should be easy money for the ones who's determined pirate runs ponzi

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Not using a platform like GLBSE means an advantage to Pirate. If he does run a Ponzi, he has access to (and can afford to lose) much more cash than Vandroiy can.

Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;
2. The amounts wagered on either side could be dissimilar without a significant change in risk;
3. trading of bonds and their relative prices could be a good indicator of informed public opinion (well, public opinion, anyway) .

I understand Pirate won't use GLBSE, but a bunch of his supporters will. I still think a paired bond like proposed in the OP would be a good way to proceed, and let more people in on the wager.

nimda

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

0xFB0D8D1534241423

And the escrow is more trustworthy

BTCurious

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 504

^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: chunglam on July 05, 2012, 08:12:46 PM

Quote from: elux on July 05, 2012, 07:32:35 PM

Quote from: chunglam on July 05, 2012, 06:51:56 PM

Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet?
I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures.
I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Bets of Bitcoin: BTCST will default before the end of 2012. (Currently 282.3 BTC in favour, 370.44 BTC against.)

This one is more interesting, because it involves pirateat40 himself and charity.

And the volume is higher.

chunglam

donator

Activity: 229

Merit: 106

Quote from: elux on July 05, 2012, 07:32:35 PM

Quote from: chunglam on July 05, 2012, 06:51:56 PM

Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet?
I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures.
I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Bets of Bitcoin: BTCST will default before the end of 2012. (Currently 282.3 BTC in favour, 370.44 BTC against.)

This one is more interesting, because it involves pirateat40 himself and charity.

teek

hero member

Activity: 667

Merit: 500

Quote from: the joint on July 05, 2012, 07:31:12 PM

God I love this forum sometimes.

+1

elux

legendary

Activity: 1458

Merit: 1006

Quote from: chunglam on July 05, 2012, 06:51:56 PM

Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet?
I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures.
I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Bets of Bitcoin: BTCST will default before the end of 2012. (Currently 282.3 BTC in favour, 370.44 BTC against.)

the joint

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1020

God I love this forum sometimes.

pirateat40

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: nimda on July 05, 2012, 07:18:29 PM

Somehow I doubt vandroiy will do it, but we'll see... (watch for lame excuses)

If he does't have the coins, surely he can collect enough funds from everyone anti-me. He's already committed, it's game on.

Serge

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

Vandroiy - 5k BTC
~~Blitz - 3k BTC~~
over $33k worth of pet rocks for a winning side at current rates

nimda

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

0xFB0D8D1534241423

ooh, 5050 BTC each! Shocked

A cool $66700 to the winner!

Somehow I doubt vandroiy will do it, but we'll see... (watch for lame excuses)

As for charities, I can also suggest Smile Train.

elux

legendary

Activity: 1458

Merit: 1006

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 11:29:46 AM

I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

For picking an effective, efficient and sane charity: http://www.givewell.org/

Current top recommendation: Against Malaria Foundation

Quote from: GiveWell.org

Using the 2012 projected costs per LLIN, we estimate the cost per child life saved through an AMF LLIN distribution at about $1,600 using the marginal cost ($5.15 per LLIN) and about $1,700 using the total cost ($5.54 per LLIN) This does not include other potential benefits of LLINs (non-fatal cases of malaria prevented, prevention of deaths in age groups other than under-5 year olds, prevention of other mosquito-borne diseases, etc.).

Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 35. (Read 73398 times)