Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 37.

Raoul Duke

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Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 11:01:46 AM

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 10:45:53 AM

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day. You sound sure enough now, why wait? I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters. This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!

...and get bankrupt on the process... lol

Vandroiy

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...

Oh wow. It'll take a bit until I answer though, it's not like I have tons of BTC on my mobile or anything. Gotta talk with one of the traders.

pirateat40

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"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 10:45:53 AM

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day. You sound sure enough now, why wait? I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters. This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!

rjk

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1ngldh

I don't want to force anyone to become the coin holder, but if it comes down to a bet I could suggest the following names:

nanotube
DeathAndTaxes
theymos
Keefe

unless someone else wants to volunteer.

Vandroiy

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Wait, I get it. When you default, the users come raging at me screaming I have their money. Grin

But given how they act, I'm not so certain I would have to react to that. The third party just has to consider this feasible, since by now, it's pretty damn clear what everyone's stances are. If the alternative is you running away with it or me doing a charity attack, the bet is still the right choice.

Quote from: rjk on July 05, 2012, 10:38:12 AM

I was going to suggest around 18 months or so.

Yea, my thinking too.

Pirateat40: Yes, that's OK. If you return that kind of interest, even prematurely, I can lose a 1:1 bet. I guess it's the point at hand here; I can't bet too much that your profit from that deals with things.

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

pirateat40

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"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 10:37:34 AM

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 10:29:55 AM

Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.

Right but you must add that if BS&T makes it public (at anytime prior to the deadline) that it's closed and all coins were returned and confirmed I win the bet.

rjk

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1ngldh

I was going to suggest around 18 months or so.

Vandroiy

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Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 10:29:55 AM

Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.

pirateat40

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"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 10:25:31 AM

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 10:17:48 AM

You're the one that doubts me. Since you're so sure you're right why do you need odds? 1:1 is good with me, you set up the bet.

Pirate will default by X.

Remember, we are taking about default here. Not closing down BS&T with everyone happy.

Put your month were you're mouth is and I'll match every coin.

EDIT: And no, I know you think you're the grand master chief around these parts but I didn't catch your "chatter" on IRC. Where was it?

The chatter doesn't matter, let's do it concisely here. Please, what's a valid number for X? Are you saying until next year or some few weeks like otherwise proposed? It's pretty hard to tell whether you have some whale who keeps you alive for a tad longer. And worse, you probably know that better than I, so I need some slack on the timing.

Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

pirateat40

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"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: mcorlett on July 05, 2012, 10:23:28 AM

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 10:17:48 AM

Put your month were you're mouth is

I had to.

lol,

*grabs more coffee*

Vandroiy

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Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 10:17:48 AM

You're the one that doubts me. Since you're so sure you're right why do you need odds? 1:1 is good with me, you set up the bet.

Pirate will default by X.

Remember, we are taking about default here. Not closing down BS&T with everyone happy.

Put your month were you're mouth is and I'll match every coin.

EDIT: And no, I know you think you're the grand master chief around these parts but I didn't catch your "chatter" on IRC. Where was it?

The chatter doesn't matter, let's do it concisely here. Please, what's a valid number for X? Are you saying until next year or some few weeks like otherwise proposed? It's pretty hard to tell whether you have some whale who keeps you alive for a tad longer. And worse, you probably know that better than I, so I need some slack on the timing.

mcorlett

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Quote from: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 10:17:48 AM

Put your month were you're mouth is

I had to.

pirateat40

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"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 08:23:12 AM

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 04, 2012, 11:47:26 PM

But I can. Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

Hmmmmmm. What are you plotting, I wonder?

You might just be about to run and wager with that option; chances are I'll be too careful since you have a lot more control and inside knowledge. But betting directly with you makes all this obvious.

What time-frame and odds are the best you can do? Edit: oh, and do you guarantee some rate of returns during that time, so you can't just stall for ages?

Edit: hahaha, I think he just read my chatter on IRC and noted he's in a pinch. Expect a pointlessly low max time frame or some other hook to get out. Watch a failed attempt to show how legit he is live, in this thread, it'll be fun.

You're the one that doubts me. Since you're so sure you're right why do you need odds? 1:1 is good with me, you set up the bet.

Pirate will default by X.

Remember, we are taking about default here. Not closing down BS&T with everyone happy.

Put your money were you're mouth is and I'll match every coin.

EDIT: And no, I know you think you're the grand master chief around these parts but I didn't catch your "chatter" on IRC. Where was it?

Vandroiy

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Quote from: ?? on ??

you would run out of money in less than 15 weeks... learn to mathz.

Why do you figure I'm so amused at this? I'm putting to display that any bet on this becomes ridiculous. People just have to wonder why.

Raize

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I thought about doing something like this in case BFL was a scam. The problem is that you can't find enough "pro" people that want to make less than their investment could make in a potential scam. That's why the BFL Bets of Bitcoin is going no where.

I want to bet 100 Bitcoin that BFL won't deliver within 20% of their specs within the month of October on any single BC device, but it would only work if BFL itself took the opposing end, because everyone else wants to spend their money buying actual BFL devices.

Vandroiy

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Jouke, I'd rather choose myself, just for tail risk that he owns the site. But yea, we're already betting there a little.

But that's beside the point. I'm waiting for info on the three points, Pirateat40. What odds? Can you do times well into next year? Can you give some limit on extreme stalling? The latter only determines how much I can bet -- a fair profit or going mad.

Quote from: ?? on ??

If the bet will pay more than pirates bank

lol, are you suggesting >33:1 odds for a one-year bet? Don't push it, he'd have to guarantee his rate for the whole time for that to work, which he hasn't yet.

Generally, it should be clear that some odds are just perverse. That's not helping anyone's credibility.

flower1024

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: pirateat40 on July 04, 2012, 11:47:26 PM

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 04, 2012, 10:38:41 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on July 04, 2012, 10:34:32 PM

The risk is worse on the Pro Pirate side. On the anti Pirate side, much less. Is this what you meant?

For a sane player to take the bet against me, the anti-pirate bond must be 27 times larger than the pro-pirate bond. This is what I meant.

Give it up. You just can't build a logic instrument on bullshit assumptions. Anything involving BS&T and a time-frame of one year or above inserts the fact that believers can multiply their money with a factor of roughly 33 instead of playing. Of course we can't beat that!

But I can. Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

If the bet will pay more than pirates bank I will put in too. I think it is silly for me to lose money cuz of trollz. These trolls should set something up where they pay out 7% until pirate defaults then they keep the money. If they default first well, then lulz...

+1

Jouke

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Quote from: pirateat40 on July 04, 2012, 11:47:26 PM

But I can. Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433 ?

Vandroiy

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Quote from: pirateat40 on July 04, 2012, 11:47:26 PM

But I can. Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

Hmmmmmm. What are you plotting, I wonder?

You might just be about to run and wager with that option; chances are I'll be too careful since you have a lot more control and inside knowledge. But betting directly with you makes all this obvious.

What time-frame and odds are the best you can do? Edit: oh, and do you guarantee some rate of returns during that time, so you can't just stall for ages?

Edit: hahaha, I think he just read my chatter on IRC and noted he's in a pinch. Expect a pointlessly low max time frame or some other hook to get out. Watch a failed attempt to show how legit he is live, in this thread, it'll be fun.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Well, I'm sad. I'm not in either pro or anti camp.

If Pirate is running a Ponzi scheme, I want those taking the time to speak out against him to gain something at the cost of pro Pirate camp. On the other hand, if speaking out against Pirate was completely risk free to the anti camp, then you get trolls who just want to have fun (not looking at you Vandroiy, you seem to be taking this seriously).

So I thought I'd put the two camps toe to toe for a little bond action. The risk is minimal to the anti camp - only losing access to coins for up to a year, with a big gain if they're right. If the pro camp is right, it's just a pass through with no access to interest for a year, if they're wrong these losses will be the least of their worries.

Oh well.

Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 37. (Read 73367 times)