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Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 31. (Read 73367 times)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
Quote
This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)

I've already done the math on that, and it's a beautiful arbitrage scenario!


Its less than doubling, because the deposit would be lost in a default. But there is a profit, which comes from exploiting the market inefficiency which is pirateat40 lenders' mistaken beliefs of continued returns (its their 5k btc he would win). In an efficient market, insurance on deposits would cost the interest earned, exactly.

But while Vandroiy is getting just a sliver, pirate gets the pie.

I think the publicity of this bet will inspire confidence, accelerating growth and therefore the inevitable endgame, default. Its in both parties' best interest (both exploiting the same inefficiency).
legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.

There's a Bitcoin-powered predictions market, and that's currently the bet statement with the largest wager, by a factor of 2:1 over the next largest:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433
sr. member
Activity: 457
Merit: 250
Look for the bear necessities!!
Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.
hero member
Activity: 662
Merit: 545
Vandroiy.... if you want to give to charity, i really could use help on my rent.  It really makes me feel like an ant with that amounts of bitcoins you guys hold Sad
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another! Smiley

I honestly think it must be earlier.

But yes, that would really be best. Imagine someone talked to you with the assumption the Earth is flat while going on a trip to space. What'll you say if it becomes a flamewar? I opt for "I will apologize if it's wrong, but can't you just wait and see for yourself?" Once you've seen it, that's just it.

A good part of the flamewar stems from people being over-aggressive in discussions and wrong. One of the two is okay, but if you ever do both, it's really necessary to write an apology. Again, I promise I will if I should I be wrong -- this does not concern the bet, but the statement that we're faced with a HYIP Ponzi.

After all of this is over, I'd like it if we gather the people involved and sort this out. Because if all of this this is what it clearly looks like to me, this place is pretty defunct as a community. And by that I mean worse than most 4chan boards.

In fact, I'm off to visit some bronies. They're the same weird nerd crew, just not intent of working against each other at all times, even for mutual damage. Have all fun pushing the scam larger, and take pride if you manage to say I was paid out of it or got me loss-butthurt, fuck if I care. E-Positive, Kelly said yes, just be the machine and even if you lose, silently analyze the mistake for the next $$$ or BTCBTCBTC, for money is the measure of all in life.



Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,

Thanks, Pirateat40. I wonder why they thought I'd take the bet. You, at least, are honest with yourself.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
"Yes I am a pirate, 200 years too late."

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,

full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Bitcoin is a food group.
See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another! Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? Wink

or

3.  5k is chump change for him and he's more than willing to put that out there in an effort to silence the trolls.   I'd do exactly the same.


Yes, 3. is pretty reasonable. I'd do exactly the same if I was running a Ponzi, too. Of course if he isn't running a Ponzi, he just bought a low yield but very safe interest bearing deposit. He wins either way.

err imo 3==1

No, 3!=1. It's actually the only rational thing for Pirate to do in either case.

legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1015
doesn't this open a blackmail opportunity against pirate?

i can claim that my withdrawal of my account (which i don't have) is being refused.  and a little birdie tells pirate i can shut up for a few dozens of bitcoins.

how would anyone know i really have or don't have funds at pirate?

or even if i did have an account, and i did successfully withdraw, i could still claim my withdraw request was refused hoping to collect on a bet on the "will default" side.
The blockchain analysts already have all of the deposit and withdrawal addresses. This would be trivial to disprove, regardless of what nanotube is given.
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
There is a winner: nanotube. He's already banking 100 BTC Grin
hero member
Activity: 482
Merit: 501
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I confirm receipt of 5050 btc from pirateat40 and vandroiy
each, for the btcst bet.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

iEYEARECAAYFAk/3chMACgkQ5/k4vslVlLJrvQCcCtttIaVMJapHH7cT5hcQtiqk
4lgAnjraPPKHpPzHZy6l0KukZmUqjWcB
=Qyxi
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? Wink

No! He might be planning to orderly shut down in the next two months. That would make him win!

Just that then, he'll re-open as a Ponzi for sure. But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I think it's pretty pointless to make such a show only to get back at me. But this guy is a psycho-poker-face, I'll only know when it's over. I know I'm taking that chance. Betting ain't no fun without risk!
sr. member
Activity: 426
Merit: 250
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
err imo 3==1
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? Wink

or

3.  5k is chump change for him and he's more than willing to put that out there in an effort to silence the trolls.   I'd do exactly the same.


Yes, 3. is pretty reasonable. I'd do exactly the same if I was running a Ponzi, too. Of course if he isn't running a Ponzi, he just bought a low yield but very safe interest bearing deposit. He wins either way.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? Wink

or

3.  5k is chump change for him and he's more than willing to put that out there in an effort to silence the trolls.   I'd do exactly the same.     He's obviously not interested in the money as when (sorry, if) he wins it's going to charity.

This is win win for Pirate.   Even if he is running a scam, all he has to do is drag it out until November 2013 and hey presto.    A really stupid bet to make on Vandroiy's part, but oh well.   A fool and his money etc etc.

legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? Wink
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
Could be just a coincidence, but just caught this post over in the LENDING forum:

Quote from: notPirateat40 date=justnow
Need to borrow 132K BTC until Oct 2013 to settle some stupid bet, I'm offering 6.99% a week. Arrrr...

 Grin

The funds are actually underway now.

Yea, the question is whether he has any means of doing that *and* not losing more than 5k because of the lender shakeup / fees / whatever.

This question determines what the next part of the show will be!
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