Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 30. (Read 73398 times)

do you know this?

This scene from Princess Bride can somewhat be duplicated in real life by taking activated charcoal with some olive oil every day. It's recommended to take it at a different time than you take your regular supplements, like before your noon meal.

Hahahaha

+1

Just quoting this because I'm mental.

Mostly just because you're mental.

This is among the stupidest things I've seen on this forum,  and that is really, REALLY saying something.

You're missing that, unlike some people, nanotube has a brain.

To keep his "trust", which is apparently not zero, Pirateat40 would want to leave a trace to the new operation. It's risky, expensive to do, and if he leaks anything, nanotube will tell him to bugger off.

Edit: remember that the Ponzi abuses human misunderstanding of the exponential function's main property (its derivative being itself) and the implications this has for the expected time-frame people think they can play it. This is why they need months of head-start to push the irrelevant number of "past days run" up!



If this is true, he didn't get me to sign as fast as he could have, by far. For the record, about three hours after we knew the bet's terms were serious, the decision was made. Everything else was just a nonsensical show in the hope to minimize the moves of Pirateat40 which would allow to evade and still blame it on me successfully, from the perspective of people who have no clue. Most of the time taken was for the shutdown-reopen scenario that plays little role were he legitimate, and remember it was not Pirateat40 who gave in on it.

To be precise, it was a double-bluff: I showed fear of a potential weakness of me (the shutdown-reopen scenario), and then saw him bluff on this one. In the now remote chance he didn't... bear with me, it's rock-paper-scissors at that point, it's trivial to give me a tail risk on interpreting stances wrongly.

From Pirateat40's viewpoint, I think his move is a close call. The exp growth should overpower any "surface" effects in three to five weeks. He's the psychology master, let's see whether he was right. If he was, well, he profited, and that's all that counts for someone who knows no friends and enemies.

Why am I still explaining part of my thinking to people who are completely oblivious to what is going on here? Pirateat40 doesn't even try to hide it, people just read what they want to read.

Really why do you guys think I took the bet? What does all this even translate to, emotional outburst? Calling someone stupid without a clue what he was thinking is dangerous. I used a vote of five mathematically well-educated people whether we have >50% chance here. The outcome was 5:0. We reduced our initial amount suggestion because we expected a chance Pirateat40 might default instead of accepting if we place too much.

My indicators start to tend to "Pirateat40 was right". Just to clarify it endlessly, this has nothing to do with who wins the bet. I... just can't feel sorry for you guys anymore. It's like looking at these cows that stay on the tracks when they run from trains. Disturbing, but it's just hard to feel with them.



TL;DR: If you are under the impression we are simply betting about Pirateat40's business being a Ponzi, and that we just sucked at staying focused on the point, you need a serious reality check. It took almost two days! On a 1:1 bet we're both certain on? Think again, we're not that inefficient.

That was a main consideration - to see if both investors and naysayers would swallow both the risk and the low return in order to "support their side", and also to gauge public opinion by the volume and price of trade in the paired bonds.

It's a moot point now though, there's 1:1 bet between Pirate and Vandroiy.

Good luck with that.

Correction: That's because he let Vandroiy manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. Now that he knows he overstepped and can be right or wrong about the stability of his "business" and quite possibly lose, he's starting to wriggle on the line. First, he claimed he was giving to charity, when that was one of the mechanisms Vandroiy used to goad him into the bet. Then he acted buddy-buddy with Vandroiy as if this were a gentlemen's bet, when HE IS BETTING WITH AN ADVERSARY (you know, "more like guidelines") who libeled him all over the place in an effort to end his Ponzi "business". Now he's claiming the community is broken because, you know, this stuff can happen.

While I won't say Vandroiy played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull. Pirate saw red and charged right at the cape. Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side. It remains to be seen if Vandroiy will get an ear or two. 

Fair enough, my mistake.

Since you can double your money in 12 weeks at 6% per week returns, why would a pro pirate investor invest in this for a year?

The upside for pro pirates is not high enough. You need as many pro pirate purchasers as default pirate purchasers for this to really take off.

You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

The correct math for this results in 2276.7, NOT 343.2.

You do not seem qualified to run bonds like this :/

If Pirate did that, he would have to pay out first, which he probably cannot. If instead he switched accounts into a new scheme directly, then that would be considered a continuation of the old scheme, and the bet would cover that too.

If he paid out piecemeal and thus moved people over one by one, that would be considered a trick, and the new scheme would again be considered a continuation of the old one and covered by the bet.

At least that is how I would see it. We could ask the escrow holder. The bet contract contains a clause stating that, if conditions move outside the explicit bet conditions, nanotube is free to decide how to disburse the money.

Perhaps we should better wait and see what happens, rather than discuss the crazier hypothetical outcomes. Perhaps Pirate reckons he can make up for the 5,000 BTC by attracting another "investor" or two on the strength of his publicized bet, and has planned to grab and run before DEF CON anyway. That is the outcome I currently consider most likely. The second-most likely outcome I consider that he somehow manages to drag on for a longer time, but certainly not until October 2013. In that case he would need to pull a trick for his announced DEF CON appearance.

Sometimes it pays to have earned trust.

All you're missing from that post is an "IMO"

At least you don't have any money to lose in all this,  so more power to you for being smart enough not to make crazy bets with seemingly rich, mysterious strangers on the Internet

He can't drag it out that long. If he keeps the interest rate high, his money will be finished through payouts long before that. If he lowers the interest rate, enough "investors" will recall their money, so he would quickly run out of money too.

Perhaps he's a millionaire, and he can afford to lose a large amount of money, merely to bolster his ego and inflate his reputation. In that case Vandroiy would indeed lose, Pirate would start a new Ponzi scheme, using his now improved reputation, and would rip off even more unsuspecting "investors".

As to "stupid bet", I'd say, no risk—no fun.

 

I think it's funny how Vandroiy spent so much energy trying to save people from making mistakes with BS&T and their money, yet was resistant to others trying to save him from making mistakes with BS&T and his money.

Unfortunately it's not really a predictions market, because you can't trade bets. A real predictions market for BS&T default would be awesome!