Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 33. (Read 73388 times)
I think we're giving him a hard time. Sorry nanotube! 
I wanna seal this already, I'm really curious what Pirateat40 will do. In all honesty, I can't tell, just guess the odds. If he manages to pay out, I know he actually got more coins somewhere, and I learned he's the guy to go through great hassle to get back at people. I really doubt it, but who knows?
If he stalls, it's obvious he will not take the bet and default soon.
And then he could just sign it and act as if everything's normal. That's where BS&T is healthier than expected and we'll get a major Ponzi final -- if he correctly guessed the bet will aid his credibility as much as he hopes.
I couldn't make that call; really wondering what his choice will be, and whether he has all three options in the first place.
Currently, he's talking with nanotube. I don't see any new info @tm...
No wait, he may just be stalling. Man. No share for me, Pirateat40?
Edit: Why is this so complicated... can't we just agree on nanotube judging dubious cases with some delay? It's not like I'm claiming there will be a minor problem in the bookkeeping, and I pretty much confirmed I'm fucked if you put up the money from wherever, as long as nobody notices that "wherever" is a trick.
I wanna seal this already, I'm really curious what Pirateat40 will do. In all honesty, I can't tell, just guess the odds. If he manages to pay out, I know he actually got more coins somewhere, and I learned he's the guy to go through great hassle to get back at people. I really doubt it, but who knows?
If he stalls, it's obvious he will not take the bet and default soon.
And then he could just sign it and act as if everything's normal. That's where BS&T is healthier than expected and we'll get a major Ponzi final -- if he correctly guessed the bet will aid his credibility as much as he hopes.
I couldn't make that call; really wondering what his choice will be, and whether he has all three options in the first place.
Currently, he's talking with nanotube. I don't see any new info @tm...
No wait, he may just be stalling. Man. No share for me, Pirateat40?
Edit: Why is this so complicated... can't we just agree on nanotube judging dubious cases with some delay? It's not like I'm claiming there will be a minor problem in the bookkeeping, and I pretty much confirmed I'm fucked if you put up the money from wherever, as long as nobody notices that "wherever" is a trick.
nanotube is extremely reliable. Excellent choice.
Pirate may lose reputation from taking this bet if a lot of people with good reputations decide to bet against him, and fewer bet with him.
Is Nanotube extremely reliable? He has been around forever and started bitcoin-otc. That is all I know.
For arbitraging the bet (betting for a default and depositing money with Pirate), you can still lose money if Pirate closes up the operation and returns the money before your interest exceeds the size of your bet. However, that seems the least likely of the three options (default, growth, return money).
Is Nanotube extremely reliable? He has been around forever and started bitcoin-otc. That is all I know.
For arbitraging the bet (betting for a default and depositing money with Pirate), you can still lose money if Pirate closes up the operation and returns the money before your interest exceeds the size of your bet. However, that seems the least likely of the three options (default, growth, return money).
This bet is actually a win-win for both players
-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40
-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it
Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet
Hey guys, I just heard Vandroiy is the same person as pirateat40!-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40
-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it
Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet
DAMNIT! My plan almost worked.
This bet is actually a win-win for both players
-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40
-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it
Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet
Hey guys, I just heard Vandroiy is the same person as pirateat40! -Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40
-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it
Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet
All trolls and gamers here. If it isn't a ponzy, you will loose. If it is a ponzy, you will loose also.
A ponzy ends on unexpected falling prices normally. But when this will come, is not really predictable. So it's a bet on time.
A ponzy ends on unexpected falling prices normally. But when this will come, is not really predictable. So it's a bet on time.
Nope, the moment all my lenders have every coin back it's over. I WIN. Your slander towards me is about me running a Ponzi. If I ran one, I would be way underwater by now. This is an easy bet for you, since you know what I'm doing, right?
Those are my terms, lets play.
Those are my terms, lets play.
Either you're not reading my posts or trying to use double-inverse psychology on me. Read the post after that one.
We're preparing the contract, I'm in. I know this actually gives me a chance to lose, but isn't that the point of a real bet? Talk with nanotube on IRC to see the current contract version.
Edit: when this is all over, and you didn't dig up lots of funds, please tell me whether you were trying to bluff me with this post. I love the psycho-games you play, even when I don't know whether I'm winning them. Worthy opponents are a feat in itself.
I just want you to understand here as well as the contract what the rules are. This confirms it for me.
Let's roll, good luck.
-pirate
Nope, the moment all my lenders have every coin back it's over. I WIN. Your slander towards me is about me running a Ponzi. If I ran one, I would be way underwater by now. This is an easy bet for you, since you know what I'm doing, right?
Those are my terms, lets play.
Those are my terms, lets play.
Either you're not reading my posts or trying to use double-inverse psychology on me. Read the post after that one.
We're preparing the contract, I'm in. I know this actually gives me a chance to lose, but isn't that the point of a real bet? Talk with nanotube on IRC to see the current contract version.
Edit: when this is all over, and you didn't dig up lots of funds, please tell me whether you were trying to bluff me with this post. I love the psycho-games you play, even when I don't know whether I'm winning them. Worthy opponents are a feat in itself.
I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.
The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.
If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.
If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.
The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.
If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.
If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.
I have a solution for this that makes you no trouble at all, but keeps my constraints.
If you do an orderly shutdown, your half of the bet gets repaid a few weeks after the shutdown, but you must place it in again if you or BS&T start another Ponzi-suspicious endeavor within the bet's time-frame (anything that relies heavily on people lending you money). My half gets locked up until the end of the bet's time or a default, and if the end comes, is donated to charity.
Nobody suffers. Your funds don't get locked, the charity donation is at least as good in 2013 as it is today, and I need not fear you just faking a shutdown with some mountain of money from whatever previous heists of yours, or whatever strange tactics.
Edit: This is really just formulation stuff now. Unless you plan to shutdown quickly after the bet, just to start-up something very similar right afterwards, the clause is of no consequence to you. Wager comes back, charity gets paid automatically, no hassle for you at all.
Edit2: There has to be some way to make this simple. I'm trying to think up some way to formulate it that doesn't get too convoluted... gimme a moment.
Nope, the moment all my lenders have every coin back it's over. I WIN. Your slander towards me is about me running a Ponzi. If I ran one, I would be way underwater by now. This is an easy bet for you, since you know what I'm doing, right?
Those are my terms, lets play.
lol, it's just as priceless as always, just that this time nobody is trying to make up explanations.
The pirate might still be tricking me, yarr. But it'd be strange if I were betting on that, no? So what am I thinking that he thinks?
The pirate might still be tricking me, yarr. But it'd be strange if I were betting on that, no? So what am I thinking that he thinks?
Quote
This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)
I've already done the math on that, and it's a beautiful arbitrage scenario!
I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.
Ready when you are.
Ready when you are.
Sure! How's this for the terms:
Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.
A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.
Something among these lines?
Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow. When your funds hit the escrow let me know.
O.o
This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)
doesn't this open a blackmail opportunity against pirate?
i can claim that my withdrawal of my account (which i don't have) is being refused. and a little birdie tells pirate i can shut up for a few dozens of bitcoins.
how would anyone know i really have or don't have funds at pirate?
or even if i did have an account, and i did successfully withdraw, i could still claim my withdraw request was refused hoping to collect on a bet on the "will default" side.
documenting transactions (encrypted with hashes published) so that nobody can see them normally but if there is a dispute then the content of any specific transaction can be revealed by either party and then verified is one precaution.
there are so many holes. is this really workable?
i can claim that my withdrawal of my account (which i don't have) is being refused. and a little birdie tells pirate i can shut up for a few dozens of bitcoins.
how would anyone know i really have or don't have funds at pirate?
or even if i did have an account, and i did successfully withdraw, i could still claim my withdraw request was refused hoping to collect on a bet on the "will default" side.
documenting transactions (encrypted with hashes published) so that nobody can see them normally but if there is a dispute then the content of any specific transaction can be revealed by either party and then verified is one precaution.
there are so many holes. is this really workable?
Okay. Whatever. We've been stalling this long enough; an orderly shutdown for 5k would be quite excessive, you'd have to execute the charity thing with it, and someone would see what's going on, and I give >90% that you couldn't pay even if you wanted to. 5k charity to see you do the monkey? Acceptable.
Disagreement is over, back to getting this thing done. I'm working with nanotube to finish the contract.
Disagreement is over, back to getting this thing done. I'm working with nanotube to finish the contract.
I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.
The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.
If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.
If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.
The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.
If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.
If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.
I have a solution for this that makes you no trouble at all, but keeps my constraints.
If you do an orderly shutdown, your half of the bet gets repaid a few weeks after the shutdown, but you must place it in again if you or BS&T start another Ponzi-suspicious endeavor within the bet's time-frame (anything that relies heavily on people lending you money). My half gets locked up until the end of the bet's time or a default, and if the end comes, is donated to charity.
Nobody suffers. Your funds don't get locked, the charity donation is at least as good in 2013 as it is today, and I need not fear you just faking a shutdown with some mountain of money from whatever previous heists of yours, or whatever strange tactics.
Edit: This is really just formulation stuff now. Unless you plan to shutdown quickly after the bet, just to start-up something very similar right afterwards, the clause is of no consequence to you. Wager comes back, charity gets paid automatically, no hassle for you at all.
Edit2: There has to be some way to make this simple. I'm trying to think up some way to formulate it that doesn't get too convoluted... gimme a moment.
What Vandroiy is afraid of is you pulling shenanigans. As an example: If you set up BTCSTv.2 in a few months, with exactly the same conditions, and transfer all users' funds there, then you could claim that BTCST is shut down and you returned every coin to your lenders('s new accounts) and therefore you win.
Of course the scenario is silly, and if hypothetically it would happen everyone would see through such shenanigans. To placate Vandroiy perhaps an impartial person or group should judge.
Of course the scenario is silly, and if hypothetically it would happen everyone would see through such shenanigans. To placate Vandroiy perhaps an impartial person or group should judge.
Changing the name and moving funds is one thing. Returning all the coins is another.
To make this stand out:
Pirateat40, is it okay if the donation funds get locked up until the end of the bet even if you manage a seemingly orderly shutdown, and the bet continues on whatever operations of similar type you might run until the deadline or that stem off BS&T? This is security against tricks in which BS&T effectively just renames or re-opens, and the pay-out is not really what is seems to be.
I'll try to get a final formulation of the bet asap.
Pirateat40, is it okay if the donation funds get locked up until the end of the bet even if you manage a seemingly orderly shutdown, and the bet continues on whatever operations of similar type you might run until the deadline or that stem off BS&T? This is security against tricks in which BS&T effectively just renames or re-opens, and the pay-out is not really what is seems to be.
I'll try to get a final formulation of the bet asap.
I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.
The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.
If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.
If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.
Of course the scenario is silly, and if hypothetically it would happen everyone would see through such shenanigans. To placate Vandroiy perhaps an impartial person or group should judge.
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