Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 29.

ninjarobot

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Mine Silent, Mine Deep

Quote from: ?? on ??

It's been going strong for almost a year.

Madoff had been going strong for 38 years (1970-2008). Of course he was only providing ~16.3% ROI per year. At the rate pirate is going he will run into the walls of reality a bit faster than that. Greed is rarely a good adviser. In general you should be very skeptical about anything that promises >7% return per year. Risk and reward go hand in hand. Just because you see some numbers on a screen, and you like what you see does not make it real.

Quote

Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear and greed.
--Albert Einstein

Seems like pirate is catering to at least two of these. Of course - There is always the chance he could be a 'genuis' and really cares about helping his clients make tons of money out of the kindness of his heart. Yarr!

BTCurious

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: jamesg on July 08, 2012, 05:26:56 AM

Quote from: BTCurious on July 08, 2012, 05:01:07 AM

100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

Oh, so the taxes one got dropped out since we have Bitcoin? What makes you so sure the death one is certain?

In all seriousness though, I agree. But then he's foolish for being certain, not for taking the bet. Taking the bet is a rational effect of being so certain.

Quote from: organofcorti on July 08, 2012, 05:47:53 AM

Maybe not even death.

+1

Scott J

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I love this forum Grin

Mageant

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Epic!

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: jamesg on July 08, 2012, 05:26:56 AM

Quote from: BTCurious on July 08, 2012, 05:01:07 AM

100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

Maybe not even death.

jamesg

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AKA: gigavps

Quote from: BTCurious on July 08, 2012, 05:01:07 AM

100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

BTCurious

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Pirate is a genius.

1. The bet takes and pirate defaults: Van makes 5k
2. The bet takes and pirate doesn't default: van loses 5k
3. The bet doesn't take and van goes long: he makes over 8k
4. The bet doesn't take and van does nothing: he is even

So essentially taking this bet is the only way for van to lose money, and if he is wrong he limited his profit versus going long.

*applause*

If the pirate default is a 100% certainty, then betting on it is not a bad idea. Vandroiy is 100% certain, so this explains his actions.

copumpkin

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I'm actually a pineapple

I find it amusing that inconclusive evidence + arrogance + people rejecting one's own interpretation of the evidence = absolute certainty and strong language. Nuance was supplanted by big egos and verbal machismo, and this whole hullabaloo seems to have become more of a pissing match ("just wait and see; I am 100% right and you are 100% wrong!") now than the moral panic ("but the innocents will be hurt!") it started out as.

Where's BTC_Bear when you need him?

Raoul Duke

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Quote from: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 07:35:51 PM

Quote from: Raoul Duke on July 07, 2012, 06:03:35 PM

Profiting since December myself.

Phantom profits. They're only there if you withdraw first at the others' expense. The clock is ticking..

Yes, yes... Keep lying to yourself. Maybe it will become true. Are you a politician, or?...
And my clocks don't tick.

bitcoinBull

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rippleFanatic

Quote from: Raoul Duke on July 07, 2012, 06:03:35 PM

Profiting since December myself.

Phantom profits. They're only there if you withdraw first at the others' expense. The clock is ticking..

rjk

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1ngldh

Pirate's operation was running way before he opened a forum thread; it was all IRC and there wasn't even a website at first.

Raoul Duke

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Quote from: Vandroiy on July 07, 2012, 06:00:51 PM

Quote from: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 07, 2012, 05:10:32 PM

Ah bully. If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started. Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Us all? You were in for 8 months?

As far as I can tell, the vast majority of people/funds are not in for very long yet. If this weren't the case, I could hardly make Ponzi accusations. These only make sense if the influx of new people remains mostly above interest; together with the May hype I would suspect that a lot of people haven't even passed the ten-week mark.

I wonder after how many weeks the typical user makes a break-even withdrawal.

Profiting since December myself.

Vandroiy

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Quote from: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 07, 2012, 05:10:32 PM

Ah bully. If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started. Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Us all? You were in for 8 months?

As far as I can tell, the vast majority of people/funds are not in for very long yet. If this weren't the case, I could hardly make Ponzi accusations. These only make sense if the influx of new people remains mostly above interest; together with the May hype I would suspect that a lot of people haven't even passed the ten-week mark.

I wonder after how many weeks the typical user makes a break-even withdrawal.

RoloTonyBrownTown

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Quote from: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 04:31:49 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: BTCurious on July 07, 2012, 03:49:05 PM

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

But...Cockblockham's razor! Plus, video game scams!

Are you just blowing smoke because you want a few more weeks gains and the chance to pull out before everyone else, or are you really that dumb?

Ah bully. If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started. Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Roll Eyes

Vandroiy

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Quote from: ?? on ??

But...Cockblockham's razor! Plus, video game scams!

Quoting that too because I'm mental. Huh

(No, seriously, you sound like you dislike Occam's Razor, and that's usually a warning sign.)

Have you ever played a persistent-world MMO, or talked with people who play them? I guess all the Everquest clones made everyone forget. People get really really serious about them, they're no doubt useful to model real-world scenarios. This might be the one best source to analyze how a modern, internet-based Ponzi scheme works. Don't just throw that into the bin.

bitcoinBull

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rippleFanatic

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: BTCurious on July 07, 2012, 03:49:05 PM

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

But...Cockblockham's razor! Plus, video game scams!

Are you just blowing smoke because you want a few more weeks gains and the chance to pull out before everyone else, or are you really that dumb?

bitcoinBull

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rippleFanatic

Quote from: BTCurious on July 07, 2012, 03:49:05 PM

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

and if you're an investor, nothing is proof that it is a ponzi. The difference between the transparent market returns of bitcoin is that when the market corrects, we see some price decreases. When the market corrects in pirate's ponzi.. *poof*. The timing of when you withdraw is life-or-death. hope its not too late to take your gains *and* save your principal!

BTCurious

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 01:28:00 PM

Quote from: dooglus on July 07, 2012, 02:58:03 AM

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 06:03:18 PM

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down. All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to. Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

dooglus

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Quote from: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 01:28:00 PM

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

So long as not everyone switches at exactly the same time, the sum of the two schemes will have enough to allow people to temporarily withdraw from one and deposit into the other.

Perhaps there could be a bonus if you withdraw directly from the old fund into the new one - that way no real funds are needed at all.

But as pirate said:

Quote

Changing the name and moving funds is one thing. Returning all the coins is another.

bitcoinBull

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rippleFanatic

Quote from: dooglus on July 07, 2012, 02:58:03 AM

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 06:03:18 PM

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down. All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to. Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 29. (Read 73398 times)