Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 105. (Read 907229 times)

I have seen many bitcoin defectors in the phase of the last 6 weeks or so. The process goes as such:

- Realize that the final # of BTC (21M) is about the same as the final number of XMR (18M).
- Realize that by buying equal number of XMR, you are actually slightly ahead if it gains vs. BTC
- Realize that 1 XMR = 0.004 BTC
- Realize that hedge buying costs you essentially nothing except your pride of having never invested in an alt before
- Start to follow community
- Realize that many good guys are there
- Start to participate
- Realize that people there are on average actually cooler than just Bitcoin proponents
- Let that sink in
- Realize that it's possible to increase your financial position in the event that XMR succeeds vs. BTC, by buying more XMR
- Buy more XMR
- Realize that there is nothing BTC does better than XMR (once certain infrastructure is built to the latter)
- Realize things that should not be written in a Bitcoin forum
- Buy more XMR

The defection is completed when you start to feel that the world would be better without Bitcoin, with only XMR. Then you make the commitment to dump your BTC (that is still 50%-95% of your crypto) once the critical moment comes. When it does, XMR may go up 100x-1000x in a single year, and become so big that even BTC's value will be affected.

The defection payoff is currently about 250:1 (the difference in their price). You should understand that you may choose any level of defection, you can even defect with a 2.5:1 payoff by risking only 1% of your BTC, which is no defection at all, rather a hedge as discussed previously. This is starting to look like the similar kind of self-reinforcing mechanism that I posited for Bitcoin in early 2013, and prior to that, silver (which also rose 6x during the time of my all-in investment).

Very good post Souspeed! Still, IMO it might be feasible to hedge (very) small part of your crypto portfolio in the "best" alts. I have around 95% BTC and 5% alts.

Hmm, what if developers create an enhanced variant based on Monero source, with better features, development of alt coins is endless.

Even better.  Ban it AND make it illegal!!!

Yes!!!  I can tell from your robust and unequaled reasoning that you have very sophisticated skills, truly professional in their very subtlety and deftness.    

Surely, i must have been mistaken regarding any attempt to describe moderation and any attempt at describing any strategy going forth as other than 100% in....   Accordingly, YOU, ole wise one, have allowed me to see the light and to recognize that balls to the walls should have been the preferred methodology in these circumstances.   

There is an easy way to get rid of crime: to ban it.

So you are basically saying that you are a pussy. Anyone reading this thread with any kind of regularity already knew that.

I'm a professional poker player and I can assure you, most good poker players or gamblers would be very close to all-in on such a bet. They would, at the very least, bet the absolute maximum they can "afford" to lose.

They can ban all crypto. At once.

In other words, whether you gamble all of your financial resources or none should be considered on a continuum, depending on the "gambler's" particular circumstances.

I find this all or NONE viewpoint that Molecular seem to be framing to be quite nerve racking for my own personal tastes.  In this regard, out of my personal inclinations, I have to consider the various nuances, rather than thinking about it as all or none b/c in my thinking if gamblers are considering these various risks  as all or nothing, then sooner or later the all or NONE gamblers are going to end up on the street living out of a cardboard box (even though they may have some years of considerable luck and opulence)... and that kind of yo-yo living is too much stress for me.  

Personally, I would rather consider the amount in my investment pool and consider the amount that I have in the high risk, the medium risk and the low risk categories.  Certainly, I may consider gambling 100% of the high risk allocated amount, and if I am feeling particularly confident about the odds of any particular bet, I might also dedicate some additional percentage of my medium risk funds towards the risky venture... but in the end, all or nothing investment (or gambling) practices remain too extreme for my personal risk tolerances and my own sense of financial security.

No. But harder to stop adoption of XMR, due to the fact that blockchain analysis is not possible. If I want to get paid in XMR I post an address here, and you cannot go look it up and see how much I have received and where I spent it. UNLESS I give you permission.

Well in a profitable gamble such as this you want to approach EV as much as positive (as EV is positive) and as such make your bets as small as allowed (at $0.01 per bet anyone should take this bet of course). Risto explicitly excluded this option however.

They will probably ban everything, but MRO ban is harder to enforce.

If many tries are possible a gambler would probably do martingale. In the end that doesn't change much regarding odds, though,... mostly the time it takes to finish. That's why I said: bet it all on first go and be done with it. As long as one has a means of earning income and not much funds, this makes the most sense imo.

If you're old and already have enough money, why gamble at all?

All people I know being crypto virgins are not interested in investing bitcoin.
They think a) bitcoin is already a train that they have been left behind and b) bitcoin is most likely not the ultimate cryptocurrency because usually the first mover will not be the one that lasts until the end in technology.

Those two arguments I keep hearing from non-bitcoiners all the time.
Therefore I am tending to loose my faith in bitcoin, too. If there is no more adoption coming, then the coin is going to die and it is time jump out the train before it is too late - many has been buying bitcoins when they were at dollars or even cents - so why not hedge those bitcoins in the best altcoin (obviously Monero).

Monero's advantages are very high liquidity, anonymity and of course the opportunity to leverage your wealth since the coin is now just taking its infant steps.

Monero have been the highest trading volume pair for a long time over at exchange poloniex, it is very easy to understand why it is so fundamentally good, XMR could very well be the coin that gets used a lot in countries where BTC is forbidden or made illegal, XMR could shine in russia for example if BTC is going to be banned in russia by 2014 and it has attracted a lot of early bitcoiners as well, and by this I mean core developers who have taken a look at other coins with the underlying technology and chosen Monero over a lot of others.

I think it is a correct question to ask (BTC vs upcoming alts), but very difficult to predict the outcome.
is BTC a yahoo to some (XMR? other?) google?
The technology has to be better and the team behind the coin has to be better, plus frontrunner should experience multiple setbacks at a critical time.
none of this is currently foreseeable.

Well that is very unlikely to happen. Also I don't want to be losing 99% of my wealth so I would jump out first, much before.

This jumping out, if it for some reason gains traction, could make the air (market cap) go from one balloon to another really fast.

Nobody can be complacent.

in that hypothetical only ONE round was allowed, hence it is more about maximizing profit/minimizing potential loss in a single roll.
Very interesting stuff.
I think that I instinctively used this approach in my very speculative investements (without knowledge about Kelly formula).
Last year it worked great, this year-not so much, but losses are limited by design.

The only way for Bitcoin to lose now is by being overtaken by another cryptocurrency. So, the question now is, what do you think the odds are of Bitcoin failing (let's say going to a market cap <100 Million).

Do people foresee Monero being used alongside Bitcoin in the future?  Or is there a belief that because it is superior it will take over Bitcoin at some point? 

I would think that it would be very difficult with the amount of traction Bitcoin has gained at this point for any cryptocurrency to dominate BTC.