Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 106. (Read 907229 times)

It is better to split cash (1/3..6) and do as much tries as possible.

I don't remember the Kelly formula exactly for this complex case, but it will suggest minimum 50% and max 83% anyway. That should be prudent for long term investor with the intent on maximizing his bankroll but not going broke.

Because earning capacity can be added to the bankroll in real life, and running into debt is possible, the optimal strategy could actually be 100% or more for those whose initial capital is small. If I was 20 and healthy (neither of which is true), and that was an actual question presented to me, I would probably have taken up to €5,000 debt to leverage my investment, since that is easy to pay back if you are 20 and healthy.

Later I learned to not take debt.

You would? Quote the gambler (although it's EV optimal of course). I would go with 50% which is already far above what the average person would wager.

How often can I play?

Everything!

It may generally be treated as humor when philosophers use the phrase "in reality" to describe a philosophy.
Moving on...
We've had a strong measure of BTC price stability for the last two weeks.  Consolidation.

All this philosophical talk about probabilities NOT mattering is a bunch of bullshit.

We are individuals in a sea of unknowns, and there are so many courses that the future can take.

In the present, we have NO fucking clue, exactly, about the direction of the future, except to place probabilities on various outcomes. 

Surely, once the outcomes have taken place, then the future becomes 100% certain, but that 100% certainty of the outcome did NOT change the fact that we had NO real clue exactly what was going to take place except after it happened and except for doing our best to predict possible outcomes (with some outcomes being more likely, in our calculations than others).  There may be some luck involved with a lot of that prediction, also, and some people have better access to information and even better skills at seeing through the bullshit than others.

which can never be verified or falsified assuming that time + innovation is non-repetitive over time.

I think there are quite much better indicators than probability to classify the state of nature in the cryptoenvironment.

I would not say that risto was lucky with his investments, he found the right indicators and gave them probabilities - the second part was probably unneccessary.

All-time weighted average lies around 0.0042 IIRC, so with the the price now hoovering around 0.0038 it would be a good buy in point. I prefer poloniex to trade on, because it has by far the most liquidity. Trade volume also exceeds 100k $ most days, so it won't be a problem to do a big purchase.

Also have a look at this:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8477489

FAQ here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-monero-community-faq-721045
Missives (updates etc.) and other details : https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-monero-community-faq-721045


Altough this question isn't directed to me, look at the top of my post (where I quoted podyx) for reasons why monero matters. LTC is sort of a clone of bitcoin, which was advertised as ASIC resistant, now that ASICS are out that point is not valid anymore. Doesn't have any other functions bitcoin hasn't or can't implement. As for DRK, DRK had a huge premine and is not truly anonymous. Maybe some other members can elaborate a bit more on this?


Agree on this, privacy is a big niche to be filled. Personally I think darkmarkets will change to XMR in the future if it has more liquidity.



What about the 1MB blocksize limit? It requires a hard fork to change it, while monero has a adaptive blocksize limit.

That's why I suggested that hedging in a pareto-optimal way is not yet even taking a position due to Monero's own qualities! 

Good time to buy monero right now?
Looking to diversify 0.5% of my btc holdings into it

Also what exchange do you guys trade on?

Monero is quite a bit more than merely a hedge though.
It holds a separate non-trivial innovation track that is not developed in Bitcoin.
 

The argument is much cleaner.  Goes like something like this:
"If all events are caused, then there are no uncaused events" (or "free volitions," in case of our minds).
In other words, if everything is subject to causality, so are our minds.  All our "choices" are caused by previous events, which are, in turn, also caused and so on.  Pretty consistent intrinsically .

So if the "Change it from what to what?" is pointing out that the question is not interesting, the system being sufficiently complex to make the future unknowable, then sure.  Don't know Daniel Dennett (had to google), but the clever line seems to be riffing on Voltaire's alleged reply to "life is hard": "compared to what?"

Sorry for ot.

This is true. I only find it interesting that we live in the illusion of an open future.

rpietila,

Could you please elaborate on the factors or characteristics of XMR that you believe make it the 'first alt' that functions as a hedge to Bitcoin?

Why does XMR function as hedge better or rather than LTC or DRK, for example.

Thanks!

24Kilo

It doesn't really matter whether probability theory is true in the pure definition of reality. What matters is that it's accurate from an individuals perspective.

Monero is the first alt (okay some said LTC a year ago..) that functions as a hedge to Bitcoin.

Same as Bitcoin is a hedge to paper assets.

Gold is a hedge to all.

This is very precious, to find an asset that has good positive EV and is a hedge. Everyone who has BTC does a pareto-improvement move by buying XMR, with 0.25%-5% of the holdings. This has nothing to do with taking a position, it is a slam dunk move if you invest professionally.

Risto:  I appreciate the scenario that you describe with the dice; however, I remain a little bit puzzled why you seem to want to continuously get your Monero book digs in - when in reality BTC is the ONLY "real" game in town. 

Maybe down the road this will change and Monero or some other Alt may come to play a fairly significant role in the crypto space.. ... In the mean time,  a very large share of the investments (including mainstream investors) are going into BTC and this does NOT seem likely to change (or move over to another coin) for quite some time - at least several years the way that things seem to be currently going. 

Also, there is NO real fundamental flaws with BTC even though one or more of some of these other cryptos may have some features that would be difficult to have assimilated into BTC.

In the end, I believe that the odds are greater than 50% that BTC will surpass $5k per BTC.... but it remains possible that it could take a few more years to get above that price level.

I don't have exact numbers in my head at the moment (whether it is 60% or 75% or some other number) b/c I do believe that it remains difficult to place exact numbers on the probabilities when there are so many factors and so many actors.  I suspect that   it could take anywhere between 1 month and 2 years to move BTC prices to the next ATH..... and probably higher likelihood that such a move above previous ATH would take place within the next 6-9 months.

Because you smelled the one and only possible future. In other words, you have a better nose than your competitors.

Explain why I am rich?

Looks to me like crypto in general is about to recover. BTC is becoming a fat laggard with his larger market cap on both: down- and upswings.