Yes, if "failure" is defined to mean "will not rise to $5000+ ever".
Still if the probability for rising such is 50%, it is an incredibly good buy, and this is what I have been saying all along.
I appreciate your posts, but did you know, that in reality there is no such thing as a 'probability'?
The so-called "Master Argument" was apparently first formulated clearly by Diodorus. He argued that the actual is the only possible. He observed that if something in the future is not going to happen, it was therefore true in the past that it would not happen.
Modern philosophers like J. J. C. Smart like to think that the future is "already out there" in the relativistic space-time continuum of the "block universe."
Modern determinists/compatibilists on free will like to argue that just as the past cannot be changed, so the future cannot be changed. "Change it from what to what?," says Daniel Dennett.