rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 129.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: ensurance982 on August 07, 2014, 02:50:52 PM

Just because bitcoin has entered low volatility doesn't mean that it suddenly is ready to be treated and used as a currency any more than it has over the last months or years.

I agree, but go further: In the long run the volatility of the valuation of the account unit is irrelevant to the usability of BTC as a currency because you can lock the price, and this is subject to automation. It is only relevant to the utility of the account unit as a store of value, because in a long-term hold, hedging costs accrue.

However, when price is failing to launch, holding becomes boring, and spending diverts the mind of many. Moreover, people are vacationing now. August is the most vacation-heavy month, and that is when the rewards of long labor tend to be burned for vanities. Why do we sell in May and go away? Because of vacation season, and selling to pay for it.

heslo

legendary

Activity: 1202

Merit: 1181

Quote from: fonsie on August 07, 2014, 02:35:25 PM

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

I'm a builder by trade and you've got no idea what you're talking about. I'd take something built back then over the shitty mass produced buildings we have these days. Sure, they didn't have a lot of the special materials (and knowledge) we have these days to fight things like salt damp, however they were built tough, were labours of love and have oodles of character. I applaud Risto on his plans with this place. It may seem daunting on the outset but in the end; if done right, it will be something amazing

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 11105

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: fonsie on August 07, 2014, 02:35:25 PM

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

Probably almost better to tear it down and to start over; however, there are probably historical preservation laws that prohibit tearing it down... So instead, you just have to replace all the old bricks with new ones... or polish up the old ones.. Cheesy

ensurance982

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

Quote from: aminorex on August 05, 2014, 06:18:12 PM

Everything changed in mid-June. The low volatility period has lead to more transactions. The current regime is best represented by the period since June 24.

But why? Just because bitcoin has entered low volatility doesn't mean that it suddenly is ready to be treated and used as a currency any more than it has over the last months or years. To really matter, a period of low volatility needs to be longer! It's gotta be something different.
Do we actually know whether spam or automated transactions have gone back by now?

fonsie

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

log2exp

full member

Activity: 180

Merit: 117

Quote from: serje on August 06, 2014, 06:27:19 PM

I just made an instagram account for Malla Retreat!

Follow it for awesome(hopefully) pictures!

http://instagram.com/mallaretreat

Thanks for the pictures, it sure looks like lots work need to be done for this place.

serje

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1002

I just made an instagram account for Malla Retreat!

Follow it for awesome(hopefully) pictures!

http://instagram.com/mallaretreat

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: ?? on ??

Transaction volume is very clearly rising exponentially. Sooner or later prices will catch up.

Oh, it was only 1 year chart. Now I'm starting to believe..!

Carlton Banks

legendary

Activity: 3430

Merit: 3080

Quote from: SlipperySlope on August 05, 2014, 06:05:21 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on August 05, 2014, 05:45:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Transaction volume is very clearly rising exponentially. Sooner or later prices will catch up.

Lets say that is true that transaction volume is rising exponentially, although the last year it is not clear... and 100% increase Y/Y for a game changing innovation is not a lot... (also lower highs for the last half year).

According to Peter R's interpretation of Metcalfe's Law, to support the historical 10x annual average growth in bitcoin prices, transaction volume needs to grow an average of 3.2x annually. We are not there yet - but the last 30 days might just resume the historical trend.

It's more likey that we could see an uptick in network transactions in response to this gradual erosion in support of a >$600 price, as there are now more ways to spend bitcoin than ever. Previous price slides didn't necessarily contribute to transaction volume as much as they could in this environment of more diverse retail acceptance, there will have been many speculators that had their BTC already in their exchange accounts, only to be transferred off-chain to someone who behaved the same as them (which, of course, adds zero to the network transaction volume).

While previous sell-offs could fit a profile of somewhere between 0 and 1.5 transactions for every individual divestment event, the present circumstances could be in the range of 2 and 5 transactions per divestment (to account for the greater number of parties involved in the event overall, i.e. seller > processor > merchant > broker > investor)

There's a suggestion that this is true in the figures; gross volume in dollars of transactions has declined, yet actual frequency of transactions is still in the 50K-70K/day range. A higher frequency of small value transactions than perhaps there's ever been.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Everything changed in mid-June. The low volatility period has lead to more transactions. The current regime is best represented by the period since June 24.

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Quote from: MoreFun on August 05, 2014, 05:45:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Transaction volume is very clearly rising exponentially. Sooner or later prices will catch up.

Lets say that is true that transaction volume is rising exponentially, although the last year it is not clear... and 100% increase Y/Y for a game changing innovation is not a lot... (also lower highs for the last half year).

According to Peter R's interpretation of Metcalfe's Law, to support the historical 10x annual average growth in bitcoin prices, transaction volume needs to grow an average of 3.2x annually. We are not there yet - but the last 30 days might just resume the historical trend.

MoreFun

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Quote from: ?? on ??

Transaction volume is very clearly rising exponentially. Sooner or later prices will catch up.

Lets say that is true that transaction volume is rising exponentialy, although the last year it is not clear... and 100% increase Y/Y for a game chaning innovation is not a lot... (also lower highs for the last half year).

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: ?? on ??

Transaction volume is very clearly rising exponentially. Sooner or later prices will catch up.

And the transaction volume in 2014 has a much higher proportion of "real-world" business flow, instead of the case in 2012 when up to 70% was SatoshiDice betbot and messaging spam.

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Here is the one-year chart of adjusted bitcoin transactions showing the 7 day moving average on a log scale.

Note that in the last 30 days the trend is somewhat higher. I accept Peter R's argument that there is a Metcalf Law relationship between the transaction quantity and the price, namely that price is proportional to the square of the quantity.

Supposing the transaction quantity increase trend holds, then that should support higher bitcoin prices . . .

BTCtrader71

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1001

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 05, 2014, 01:19:47 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on August 03, 2014, 04:37:13 PM

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 03, 2014, 03:43:01 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on August 02, 2014, 06:15:24 PM

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 02, 2014, 05:56:47 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on August 01, 2014, 11:56:56 AM

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 01, 2014, 11:49:10 AM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on August 01, 2014, 11:31:12 AM

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 01, 2014, 10:45:15 AM

private property as we knowing must basically dissapear. Things will be lended. Say you need whatever device to do whatever task, like record a movie or whatever, you ask for any free cameras and you get one sent, when you are done you send it back and some other person uses it.

Who sends you the camera? Who stores it? Who fixes it when it's broken? If two people want it at the same time, who decides who gets it? What happens to the person who "borrows" it and never sends it back?

Statistics could get extracted in terms of "how many cameras are used and for how much time are they used, and how many of them get broken" and then manufacture under these %'s. These cameras are built by automated robots, which manufacture given the data input that I mentioned earlier. The wasted stuff aka unrepairable will be decomposed and the prime materials used again. In 1000 years the human imput to keep this cycle going will be peanuts.

Who extracts these statistics? Who decides how much in terms of resources gets spent on digital cameras, smartphone cameras, video cameras, other types of cameras, and / or R&D on new types of cameras?

Of course some sort of centralized (as in central or "Main", not closed source) computer having realtime date of worldwide resources. I don't see any other solution. The core of what dictates if something can be manufactured or not is judging by the dictatorship that is nature (nature is only true dictatorship, we must align to it, to whatever resources are available) and also to the well being of everyone. If what you are requesting, whatever that is, compromises the basic needs of a person a continent away, then you deal with it and not get said thing until this equilibrum of resources and global well being + your specific not basic need demand not compromising any of the former is meet.

How do you plan to convince the world population to subjugate themselves to your centralized computer?

They will naturally as they see it's just better. Of course you are free to live outside the civilized world.

Does that mean you are going to force people who do not want to be controlled by this computer to move elsewhere? Or can they stay where they are and live by their own rules? Is this a purely voluntary system? Opt-in, opt-out when you want? Abide by the computer's decisions when you want, don't abide by them when you don't? Or will there be an enforcement mechanism? If so, how do you enforce the rules?

No, of course you can continue living however you want, just like these people are still living in the middle of a forest:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xd0I1xAICOc

However, naturally people will join in within the objectively better and most balanced system, it will take ages to get there tho, but it will. I recommend you this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVPz7uXLZtI

This is too off topic for this thread ... I'm going to respond via PM.

giveBTCpls

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: rpietila on August 03, 2014, 04:57:46 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on August 03, 2014, 04:37:13 PM

Does that mean you are going to force people who do not want to be controlled by this computer to move elsewhere? Or can they stay where they are and live by their own rules? Is this a purely voluntary system? Opt-in, opt-out when you want? Abide by the computer's decisions when you want, don't abide by them when you don't? Or will there be an enforcement mechanism? If so, how do you enforce the rules?

Hard to believe he can mean serious with that idea.

The only absurdity here is this: