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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 185. (Read 907212 times)

member
Activity: 65
Merit: 10
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

Quote
So if you were wondering how Bitcoin suddenly appreciated in value by a factor of 10 within the span of one month, well, this is why. Not Chinese investors, not the Silkroad bust – these events may have contributed, but they certainly were not the main reason.

If this was the cause of the last 2 rallies, and the 234 days between them.. where does that leave us?
Makes me question if we will have another parabolic rise. Not that I would mind slow and steady appreciation either.

Any theory about a July rally because of the 234 days goes out the door. No longer valid.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Do you have a graph of this logtrend? I would like to see this. Thanks.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stephen-reeds-million-dollar-logistic-model-366214
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Do you have a graph of this logtrend? I would like to see this. Thanks.

I was refering to the graph made by slipperyslope. here's a spreadsheet, i believe it updates automatically. If the chart is +0.4 log10 units above trend (the second tab), it's time to think about selling. (i'd expect the trend to be around 3.25~3.50 by that time (depends a little on when the bubble really takes off), so 3.65~3.90 would be a selling point. 10^3.65 = $4466 and 10^3.9 = $7943

For reference, the chart predicts a trend of 3.25 at July 1 and 3.5 around September or so. It takes about 3 weeks after 'hitting' the trend and hitting the peak.

So i expect the price to be anywhere between $4466 and $7943 before it returns to around $2500. This is based only on the logistic chart. I could get a more refined analysis if i also include other things.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

We typically go far above the model before the bubble crashes.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)

This depends whether you want to sell at an overvaluation (so at +0.001) or at a significant overvaluation.
newbie
Activity: 11
Merit: 0

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Do you have a graph of this logtrend? I would like to see this. Thanks.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1015
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

That went a little over my head. How do you define trend? Is it a certain price level over a certain time interval?
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
This will be my last post on altcoin in this thread, so as not to divert the thread away from it's intended purposes.

Due to popular interest for both guarding this thread as a Bitcoin thread, and having a quality altcoin discussion, the Altcoin Observer is now in a different thread. Please continue there. For some time now, all posts mentioning altcoins in this thread will be deleted, so that you can post them in the right thread.

In the new Altcoin Observer, deletion/ban results for posts whose only purpose is to bring attention to a shitcoin or to pump a pump&dumpcoin.


Thank you
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)

Any idea of a possible peak?

If this is the next big rally, can we expect $3,000 peak with a level off around $1,500?

3000$ is very realistic, I'd say even conservative.
A price point of around 5000$ could very well be reached. THe subsequent crash would then level out at around 2000$.

It is impossible to call out the top exactly, but I'd put it in the range of 4000$-5500$.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1015
How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)

Any idea of a possible peak?

If this is the next big rally, can we expect $3,000 peak with a level off around $1,500?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)
sr. member
Activity: 541
Merit: 362
Rules not Rulers
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.
5k-6k USD per BTC, right?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
This will be my last post on altcoin in this thread, so as not to divert the thread away from it's intended purposes.

Due to popular interest for both guarding this thread as a Bitcoin thread, and having a quality altcoin discussion, the Altcoin Observer is now in a different thread. Please continue there. For some time now, all posts mentioning altcoins in this thread will be deleted, so that you can post them in the right thread.

In the new Altcoin Observer, deletion/ban results for posts whose only purpose is to bring attention to a shitcoin or to pump a pump&dumpcoin.
hero member
Activity: 843
Merit: 1001
Meanwhile Bitcoin moving strongly upwards.


still towards 4000 dollars per B??
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Meanwhile Bitcoin moving strongly upwards.

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250

1) yes it is true. darkcoin IS ninjamined.

2) correct. You make your own decisions there based upon how much exposure to risk you want, although the fundamentals behind it are strong it hasn't been battle tested. there was a time bitcoin was untested tech

3) Darkcoin is bitcoin with coinjoin marketed as darknodes or whatever they call them to large holders as marketing gimmick. it offers nothing unique over bitcoin and doesn't have benefits bitcoin has; network affect, liquidity, blockchain security etc.

4) so?  value is determined over many factors. litecoin is copy paste of fairbrix, which is copy paste of tenebrix. Why aren't they valued more than litecoin?  Cryptonote based coins offer significantly more privacy than Darkcoin so why are they undervalued? what does this prove?

5) why shouldn't you buy bytecoin? is this a joke? are you aware of the distribution of bytecoin?

I know nothing about bytecoin.  However, I dispute your assertion that "darknodes", actually called masternodes are a marketing gimmick.  Here is the difference in my view:

With coinjoin, the entity doing the mixing is centralised and therefore susceptible to government co-opting it, secret subpoenas (see lavabit), and infiltration.  

Masternodes provides Decentralised coin mixing.  In my view, this provides true privacy, something that bitcoin and litecoin does not offer.

On the issue of instant mining, I offer this from the dev: https://darkcointalk.org/threads/the-birth-of-darkcoin.162/
sr. member
Activity: 371
Merit: 250

MRO (Monero)
Okay, there was a reason why I wrote on alts. Cause I have just made my first altcoin investment ever! Monero has a trait which pretty much all other alts lack: slow and geometrically decreasing issuance. At present, only 5% of MRO is mined, and even after 4 years there will still be 20% left to be mined. There is no premine, and the community consists of several people Smiley Furthermore, it is at least currently a CPU coin, since the hashing algorithm is designed to make it difficult to implement for GPU let alone ASIC. These things make it "fair" so that there is no way to amass large stashes except by working for them in the competitive mining or buying in the open market.

The market for the coin is very active and extremely liquid. There was an OTC market in the beginning. MRO was listed in Poloniex 5 days ago and the reception has been good. It has been the most traded coin ever since despite having a market cap of only 1-3 M$! Up to 10% of the outstanding MRO changes hands daily in Poloniex, mitigating the extreme volatility that is plaguing many alts with concentrated ownership.

And now comes the main point: The coin has a feature, which is not implementable in Bitcoin - privacy! It is called CryptoNote, and means that all transactions are mixed in a protocol level. This is imo the most advanced privacy that is currently found in crypto universe, although I am sure that some disagree and let them teach me how I am wrong Wink

The coin is probably circulating quite widely already. New mining is about 30kMRO per day (BTC180), which is about $100k (!) and the price is rising (despite that). This is not a pump and dump coin, because the inflation takes care that new coins are constantly coming to the market. A word of warning though - the market cap may seem lucratively small, but the total issuance of MRO is 20 times the current, which is a little less than that of BTC. Therefore it is easy to compare the relative valuations by just comparing the prices. At 0.006 BTC currently, MRO is not the cheapest coin around (1:166 of BTC). I would advice to not buy hastily, and not participate in bubbles (if any). Mining is also an option.

This is the first altcoin I bought, and I did it during the time when it had been listed in the exchange. My relative position is less than in BTC though, so if only one remains, I would still do better if it is BTC Smiley

ADD: Relative position means: (my holding)/(total issuance).

This is a reply to Rpietila. I won't talk more about alts on this TA thread.

You might have missed LibertyCoin (xlb)

There has been no premine and no IPOs
There has been no "Dark" history of premines in the past
It is a Proof of Stake coin that some will consider a pretty ecological alternative to bitcoin if the latter manages to achieve world adoption with huge miner farms wasted on just hashing.
It is Proof of Stake so it might be more secure as they resist a 51% attack than an equivalent Proof of Work coin.
It also provides some degree of anonimity with the use of LibertySend (aka Darksend)
Name could be a little less scary for the right-doers and state-followers than something shadowy like Darkcoin
It is still on position 27th of the Capitalization Market below coins like BillionCoin or scams like Maxcoin that deserve much less or oldies like Novacoin, so it has a long way to climb positions on the market cap aka price. So this could be a nice chance for those late to darkcoin or monero.


I think there might be a race on investment on the new breed of privacy-oriented-coins and there will be a good and healthy competition between them.
I am not saying this one is better than any of the others but some might prefer this flavour. And the different development teams competing between each other to offer the best degree of anonimity could change the market rules and maybe the valuation.

Disclaimer: I hold a small percent on Drks, Moneros and Libertycoins amongst other altcoins and of course the overwhelming biggest percent on Bitcoin.

 
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