Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 188. (Read 907229 times)

Do you know a little truth? QCN dev tried to relaunch Monero. Yes, launched Monero again with the same name because he said Monero is not fair (More like he couldn't mine enough). He changed name to Quazar after strong resistance from the community. Now that thread has been deleted by him.

Hope everyone stays away for Quazar

I agree. Alts have been kind to me but in the crypto space even a year or two can be considered a long term investment if you look at the long term survival rate of alts.

BC wasn't premined. You may be confusing BC with a different coin.

I am not here to give short-term investment advice on altcoins. Many people make their living doing that, however.

Or you think its going to rise relative to BTC so is a good investment even if you don't want it to succeed more than BTC. As a long term buy, hold and never sell I agree with that but just because it has investment potential doesn't mean you think it will succeed ahead of BTC. In my mind both can succeed together.

That is absolutely right. But if we talk about long-term, there will be about equal number of BTC and MRO, which in my opinion is more relevant, because all the inflation will dilute the value of your coins.

Let's say you have BTC100 and want to hedge your fortunes. By buying 100 MRO you have an equal % of that coin (strictly speaking it depends how many years into the future you look at and how many BTC were lost in the early days). Buying less or not at all means that you don't consider MRO having credibility (it's OK, I just trashed 270 other coins), buying more means that you feel that MRO has more potential than BTC, and want it to succeed, even at BTC's expense.

In addition to the bounty, the Boolberry devs are working on a "base GUI" and a "nice GUI" for CryptoNote currencies.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6915300

How clever your analysis is.

Thank you rpietila for considering Monero as the first altcoin that is worth it.

As you say, MRO is not the cheapest on the market but definitely a strong investment.

You suggest to mine it and you are right.


For everyone, I made a tutorial if you are new to CPU mining :

[ANN][MRO][HOW TO] Install GUI wallet & mine Monero on Windows

Thank you so much for this post rpietila We are glad to have you as a Monero holder.

Monero thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-monero-a-secure-private-untraceable-cryptocurrency-583449
Monero website: http://monero.cc
Monero IRC (freenode): #monero, #monero-dev, #monero-otc
Monero improvement proposals: https://github.com/monero-developers/mips

Perhaps these questions would be better addressed in the MRO thread where the devs will be able to answer. Alternatively join freenode #monero or #monero-otc and ask in there.

But the short answer to the GUI question is there is still a bounty for it and also there is a sort of GUI wallet already.

Is there any sense of when they're likely to come out with a GUI wallet and improve exchange transferability. What are their current priorities as far as development of the coin and the ecosystem around it?

This is the reason I bought some MRO, I wanted to contribute by mining but don't have the resources to do so.

MRO offers quite a lot to the Crypto world and it's a shame a lot of people are against it.

gmaxwell says the ring sig tech is very good, and I have talked a lot with the MRO developers and they are very capable people and know what they are doing.

Damn. Rpietila buying MRO two weeks after me. I suddenly feel a little smarter... and probably way too bullish.

Out of curiosity, which exchange did you choose to buy them, Poloniex? Still trying to find the most secure place.

My take on altcoins

As my readers have noticed, I am not a big fan of altcoins. I have a distaste for the concept that enriches quacks and dumpers, I have never seen much long-term viability in them, and I have little time compared to money, and following the pump-and-dumps that all altcoins (as well as Bitcoin!) are prone to, would take far too much time compared to the meager gains achievable in the illiquid markets. I don't even trade Bitcoin except the major swings, and those only with a fraction of my holdings.

It has not gone unnoticed in the altcoin circles that I would be a great marketing asset, but I have declined all offers until now. The reason is that the coins have been bad, obvious pump and dumps, and even though I would have made some gains participating in them, my readers would have likely made a loss, and not only is that an unrighteous way to make money, I don't even need it, since I believe in the long-term success of crypto, and of Bitcoin, and have enough of them to take care of all my needs in the future.

The classical altcoins do not offer anything relative to Bitcoin, except maybe a different hashing algorithm. An important thing to remember is that there is no long-term market niche for two coins with the same algo. The hashing power of the larger coin is constantly threatening to destroy the smaller one. Even if that does not happen, there are network effects in play that favor the larger coin and suppress the smaller.

The 2.0 coins are in development and offer interesting new features. These coins tend to be fully premined, though. It would be more prudent to call them "shares". I have started many companies so that in the beginning I own all the shares, and I try to raise money and enlarge the ownership by offering them to the public. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is not a way to distribute these wide enough for them to ever function as a currency. It is akin to monetizing your ideas, generating value out of nothing, and I believe these coins are doomed to fail for this reason alone, not to mention that as startups, their failure rate is anyway 70-90%.

A new category that has just surfaced in 2014, are the privacy-enhanced coins. Although these are new, and much development is needed and is going on, the value proposal is appealing: unlike Bitcoin, which I believe is already well analyzed so that the enemies of privacy can attribute a name to most of the large addresses, these coins can offer true privacy and anonymous holdings and transactions. Not all of them, and not perhaps yet, but the potential is there. They are also seeing some price action.

Please consult the Cryptocurrency market cap when reading on. Note that I am comparing the prices relative to BTC only, so most of the coins may make gains in dollar terms even though I am bearish on them in BTC terms, once the next BTC bubble comes.

LTC
is the leading scrypt coin. On the one hand, the emergence of scrypt ASICs may provide a support to LTC's stagnating price (like SHA256 ASIC's did to Bitcoin in early 2013), on the other, it may be that they are just used to mine whatever is the most profitable coin to sell, and the proceeds are used to buy BTC. Typically LTC shoots up at the late stage of a BTC bubble. Therefore I am bearish on LTC just now, but it might be a buy when it hits 0.01, in anticipation of a leveraged rally with BTC.

DRK
This coin is centralized to be mined by masternodes. I have also heard that the developer of this coin is misrepresenting the truth concerning premine, and that he holds 2 million coins (out of 4.3M). This is a reason to be very cautious. Also DRK is in no way cheap, and there is not yet much use for it, so it is all marketing and speculation. I would not buy it now, as I did not when it was 10 times cheaper.

NXT
is 100% premined to a few executives in the beginning. It is a startup, and not a currency, and I don't believe it will ever be. Invest accordingly.

DOGE
is one of the 2 coins (other was AUR) where I saw some merit. This was when it had just come, at 35s. Now I believe it is in a terminal decline, since there are no markets for all-around coins except BTC. A further threat is that DOGE's inflation is quickly slowing, making its network very vulnerable. I advice to sell out on this one.

XRP
is pronounced crooked by a few of its developers, who have recently left the company. Even though there never was any reason to buy those, selling them is my advice if you have any.

MSC
100% premine. I have to admit that I don't know much that they are doing, but I have little belief that this coin can beat BTC in value appreciation, and there is a high risk that it will just fail. If you ever need MSC for any purpose, just buy it then.

BC
is designed a 100% premined pump&dump get-rich-quickly coin, which I did not touch when it was introduced to me in the early days of the first pump. Stay out (unless you like to be on the receiving end).

QRK
is also a secretly premined coin, which I believe is already in a terminal decline after the original pump was successful.

XPM
is surprisingly pricey still. Don't buy it.

AUR
Even though I was interested in this before the great pump in March (and would have made up to 100x gains if I had bought), now it is in a "following" mode after crashing back. If I moved to Iceland, I would probably start using it. Not an unconditional "sell" though.

MRO (Monero)
Okay, there was a reason why I wrote on alts. Cause I have just made my first altcoin investment ever! Monero has a trait which pretty much all other alts lack: slow and geometrically decreasing issuance. At present, only 5% of MRO is mined, and even after 4 years there will still be 20% left to be mined. There is no premine, and the community consists of several people Furthermore, it is at least currently a CPU coin, since the hashing algorithm is designed to make it difficult to implement for GPU let alone ASIC. These things make it "fair" so that there is no way to amass large stashes except by working for them in the competitive mining or buying in the open market.

The market for the coin is very active and extremely liquid. There was an OTC market in the beginning. MRO was listed in Poloniex 5 days ago and the reception has been good. It has been the most traded coin ever since despite having a market cap of only 1-3 M$! Up to 10% of the outstanding MRO changes hands daily in Poloniex, mitigating the extreme volatility that is plaguing many alts with concentrated ownership.

And now comes the main point: The coin has a feature, which is not implementable in Bitcoin - privacy! It is called CryptoNote, and means that all transactions are mixed in a protocol level. This is imo the most advanced privacy that is currently found in crypto universe, although I am sure that some disagree and let them teach me how I am wrong

The coin is probably circulating quite widely already. New mining is about 30kMRO per day (BTC180), which is about $100k (!) and the price is rising (despite that). This is not a pump and dump coin, because the inflation takes care that new coins are constantly coming to the market. A word of warning though - the market cap may seem lucratively small, but the total issuance of MRO is 20 times the current, which is a little less than that of BTC. Therefore it is easy to compare the relative valuations by just comparing the prices. At 0.006 BTC currently, MRO is not the cheapest coin around (1:166 of BTC). I would advice to not buy hastily, and not participate in bubbles (if any). Mining is also an option.

This is the first altcoin I bought, and I did it during the time when it had been listed in the exchange. My relative position is less than in BTC though, so if only one remains, I would still do better if it is BTC

ADD: Relative position means: (my holding)/(total issuance).

I hear it's the ICIC who are to blame, rather than PBOC . /tinfoil

I disagree.  A rally may temporarily takes us above what the market will sustain prior to it falling again.  This includes successfully executed pump and dump schemes but is not limited to pump and dump schemes.  But what you described above is an aggregate demand caused by buying which could be for all kinds of reasons; for many it will simply be panic buying by people who have no intention of selling fearing they may miss the boat.  Again, a pump and dump has a rally but not all rallies that consequently correct are pump and dumps.  If you look up 'pump and dump' you'll find they are commonly described as frauds (spreading rumours/fud to manipulate the price) in conjunction with pumping the market by buying and in regulated markets are illegal.  Even a whale buying (bitcoins, altcoins or a stock etc) with the express purpose of driving up the price to draw in the sheep and then sell at the top is not by that definition pumping and dumping if there is no fraudulent element (such as spreading misinformation etc.) let alone a market that shoots up and corrects with no collusion or manipulation, such as what you were describing.

Of course there's no shortage of conspiracy theorists here claiming every big move to be a manipulation e.g. many here would swear PBOC used FUD to drive the price down to buy in but that's another matter!

Great point Risto. Now that I've witnessed and felt the full lifecycle of a true bitcoin bubble (aka "rally") I know now that a pump and dump is exactly what a bitcoin rally truly is.  Supply greatly contracts while demand goes through the roof, but it's only temporary.  Do the bitcoin fundamentals really change in that one 3-4 week span that happens every 6-8 months or so?  No, only the perception of the adopters.  Luckily we have btc holders and thus network growth (otherwise btc bubbles would just collapse completely), a new higher exchange rate settles in and takes hold, and everyone adjusts to the new "normal".  Wash, rinse, repeat.

Of course Bitcoin was and still is vulnerable to pump 'n dump.  However, the numbers of players in a big enough league to have a significant influence is decreasing by as the volume increases whereas for the newer alts anybody who has done OK from bitcoins or is coming into this game with a reasonable amount of money can play the game, the bigger the stake, the lesser the odds of a bigger fish trumping your pump 'n dump game and catching you out.

The fact the central and private banks (as nicely illustrated by the revelations about Barclays) are doing it with gold shows us nothing is entirely safe from pump 'n dump.  My point was that with so many alts come into being with the express purpose of being used as a pump 'n dump vehicle, of course posing as something new and interesting, and with those playing to ride the waves up and down not caring which are potential contributors to advancing the technology and which are not, it just makes the whole scene very difficult to guage for so many that potentially valuable technologies may inadvertently get left unnoticed by the wayside.

For me, the ideas around bootstrapping bitcoins seem such a no-brainer.  It clears the flack out of the picture so we can more easily see what is there.  There may of course be an element of my being lazy, wanting to have the advantage of playing with and exploring alts without having to risk any of my bitcoins!  But at the moment I do think ideas such as spinoffs have some validity.  And I'm preferring treechains to sidechains.  Also, just so y'all know, I've never bought nor mined an altcoin.

I wonder if there is a way, by looking at the volume (patterns, times, etc.), to see if e.g. Darkcoin is actually seeing "real" money come in or if it is a pump and dump?
I'm truly interested in finding where all the hashing power is going to point to once the LTC ASIC's are in full swing. I think that will be our number 3, but perhaps it
will be divided initially...

A pump and dump for an alt is usually a single and final act before that altcoin disappears from internet prominence.  Bitcoin has bubbled several times over the last five years, but each time the price settles higher than its previous rise (2011 excluded). This is different to the altcoin sphere in general.

So no i don't think it is hypocritical!

You never know darkcoin could be around in five years though, lets see!