Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 181. (Read 907229 times)

July 20th is 234 days.  The last 3 peaks have been 234 days apart twice.  So far, we are on target for that date, but if we keep slipping we won't be.

Oh now I wouldn't go THAT far, lol  ...


On a more serious note ...

The question of intrinsic value of bitcoin is an interesting one, and I think it depends on the definition of "intrinsic," which deserves scrutiny, and probably varies on the context.

With respect to gold, I think of intrinsic value as the value it would have if you could somehow strip away its use as a currency (durability, divisibility, portability, scarcity, interchangeability, etc) but still retain its other uses, ie industrial uses, jewelry, whatever else you can do with it.

So when you talk about intrinsic value, you're playing a what-if game. For example: What if the mt gox bots had never been implemented to jack up the price in 2013? In that case, the "intrinsic value" of bitcoin might only be yadda yadda. But that's not the only what-if game we can play. More specifically, it's not the only relevant what-if game we can play. What if the mt gox bots had not been implemented, AND what if mt gox had not been robbed of BTC1M in 2011, with those coins being dumped on the market for a good long time after the theft? But why stop there? What if none of the myriad of thefts throughout bitcoin history had ever occurred? What if no body throughout bitcoin history had ever lost any private keys?

The logistic model is not a model about bitcoin; it is a model of humans interacting with bitcoin. According to the model, the price is roughly proportional to the number of people who understand bitcoin, individually weighted by how well they understand it, how much confidence they have in it, how much money they have to invest. Maybe a few other factors thrown in there. Price is exponential because those things grow exponentially.

Of course, there's lots of superimposed noise on top of that very simple model. The noise is caused by all sorts of things -- good news, bad news, random things we'll never hear about. So here's the question: which of those things do we consider to be external to the "true" value of bitcoin? To use just one example: Do we tell ourselves that if mtgox never ran its bots, then the price would be closer to the "intrinsic" value? If that's extrinsic, then do we consider all occurrences of theft and/or deception to be extrinsic? Some of them? Which ones?

I think there is no single way to define intrinsic value of bitcoin; there are multiple ways, depending on what we are asking: what aspect of human behaviour we are trying to model and on what question we are trying to answer.

The meaning of intrinsic changes when we ask different questions.

So what I'm really trying to say is .... there are lots of spoons.

But it's important to note that for the point we are right now, a $30k terminal value would not really change the position of the trend line we're at.

No it is simply the trendline value, in red below, for this date. The model is here. Note that I simply guessed at a maximum price of $1 million at full adoption.

I see.  I would have to think a retracement lower will happen prior to another jump up to and beyond $600.  But we shall see. 

Now...your 'logistic model trendline value' of $1404...is this number a forecast for a future date?

The short term triangle I present below lacks the drama and importance of the recently broken trendline down from the November 2013 peak. I suppose that it will break out to the upside in a day or two. Or conversely drop down to test $550 again.

My logistic model trendline value is $1404 rising over $10 each day.

This is the 2-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp drawn with BitcoinWisdom . . .

Like my signature.  It's not a matter of if.  It's a matter of when.

Indeed.

There is no intrinsic value.

There is no spoon

I believe

If enough people believe in the pattern, it will manifest itself. It's funny, it sounds like a children story but it does work like this. What is enough people is a whole different story though.

I don't want to speak for my husband, but he told me that he expects the peak to be late July, as do many on here.  I would love to say "You were right!" on this one!  (some things are not quite as enjoyable to say that about! )

I have a hard time believing it can be this predictable, but so far it is following the pattern pretty closely.

So when do you expect the bubble to peak, BitchicksHusband?

We had a flatg period in the last cycle as well. Nothing to worry about. It bubbled quite nicely then.

If we are bubbling, then we should see about $100-$150 a week until we reach $900-$1100 and then take off on a vertical.  Even during the quick rises, we may have a couple days of stalls.  But if we continue to stall throughout the first couple weeks of June, the bubble will either be late or not at all until something big happens.

The first Fibo support at 560 seems quite impressive, so I'm not too sure that we're trending down again.
I think a few days of sideways movement at or slightly above 560, then another push for 595, this time breaking through it with ease and pushing for 650.

yeah, it seems now that we are again trending down... This small correction, is not worth it, for me, to take risk. I have too little coins to sell...

i had originally planned to sell at the 630-640 level, expecting a similar correction to what you have laid out. however, in watching the pattern formed by the 595 top last night, i think we may have topped already short term and will see this correction happen first.

If the signs are there, and I see the start of a correction, I will sell a little yes. But >80% of my coins are in the SSS plan (I will start selling at 2000 USD using that plan). But yes, I will try to sell some coins and try to buy lower.

That (and some small investments in altcoins and LTC swing trading) is the only way I am able to increase my BTC holdings significantly.
I know it's risky, but buying BTC makes no sense for me. When I put 1000 USD in BTC (a lot of money for me!), I will increase my stash with <5%. Not worth it

Okay, thanks for clearing that up. So based on this you plan to sell at $650?