Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 186. (Read 907212 times)

Thanks for mentioning my project. I am only beginning to integrate my work into Bitcoin. The Bitcoin core developers are skeptical yet encouraging, and await "neat technology". Very likely my code will be implemented into one or more altcoins next year, in parallel with system testing on a Bitcoin testnet.

If the proposed system can pass all the challenging tests proposed by skeptics, then I believe that I win over many of not most of those whose approval I need before a hard-fork of Bitcoin.

I would like to keep this thread focused on technical analysis - and my project is far, far from influencing price. A year from now I hope that situation changes.

How about ME coin

In other news after a little dip Btc is on it's way back up even though it wasn't supposed to over the weekend due to as windjc says, no fresh fiat.

I merely pointed out a logic fallacy in grouping all altcoins together. Where is the disrespect towards Risto? You are making stuff up.

As to others, they sit on false information regarding Darkcoin, Monero and stuff. Most in here are trully clueless about +/-'s of the anonymous coins out there yet they pretend to be investment experts having found out about them like a week ago, propagating false information.

I have holdings in pretty much every anonymous coin there is precisely for this moment of boom, when everyone was like "anonymity? naaah... too shady" and stuff like that. So give me a break.


I heard that at 0.003, 0.005, 0.007, 0.01, 0.014, 0.02, 0.026. Traders lost their coins to the rise and expected the dump that never came. They are now waiting to get back in, so let it fall if it must.

Keep in mind some fundamentals, whether the price corrects, flash-crashes, or goes to the moon and beyond:

1. Dark is aiming for the private/anonymous market. If just 1 out of 10 transactions are held privately/anonymously in the future, the anonymous coins will hold at least 10% of the whole cryptocurrency marketcap (so ~750mn out of 7.5bn with running prices). That leaves plenty of room for growth.

2. It provides real-world utility and stuff that people can actually use. Some of the top10 cryptos in coinmarketcap have some "fancy" concepts and features that most people do not even understand what they are / what they do / why they are useful. Privacy is something that everyone understands and has a need for in some degree. People do not want to have their bank statements online, so why would we do that with crypto? Businesses too (for competitive reasons).

2. Low inflation: BTC gives out 3600 BTCs per day. LTC gives out 28.800 LTC per day. DRK produces only 2880 DRK per day - and it will lower 7% next year.

3. Due to low inflation a significantly smaller amount of fiat (or fiat equivalent in BTCs) is required to keep the price stable compared to either LTC or BTC.

4. Due to low production of coins, coupled with the coins held for masternodes, the buying pressure for existing coins escalates.

5. BTC and LTC holders may hedge some of their investments with DRK, as DRK makes its ascent and scares them. Large bagholders of LTC in particular may have problems sleeping well and will either sell LTC or hedge with DRK. This creates a feedback loop that narrows the gap between LTC/DRK as money from LTC flows to DRK, allowing DRK to go to #2.

6. DRK represents a hedge of various forms. For example its security is not dependent on only 1 hash. It is also a bad-news-hedge in the sense that when news like "Bitcoin was banned in X country" hit, it can go the opposite way of Bitcoin. Kind'a like USD/EUR pairs when USD goes bad and EUR goes up and vice versa. Fiat hedging for BTC is unrealistic because it's a binary market. You either have BTC or fiat. But BTC/DRK is an actual hedge inside cryptos. "Bitcoin banned where? Great.. DRK to the mooooooon".

7. The numbers of coins in circulation is heavily in favor of DRK, in terms of scarcity: ~4 million DRKs vs ~12mn BTCs vs ~28mn LTCs.

8. Coin-numbers-adjusted, the price of DRK is 1/7th of LTC and 1/120th of BTC. This is grossly undervalued if one assumes that at least 5 or 10% of cryptocurrency transactions will be performed privately/anonymously and thus the price should move upwards to reflect this fact, even if DRK only occupies a far smaller percentage than now in the private/anonymous market.

9. The possibility of "mining" with masternodes, is like buying a mining ring that is free (you don't actually pay it as you still keep your DRKs) but also not obsoleted with time or new technology. Beats GPU / ASICs investment in both CAPEX and OPEX.

10. DRK is ahead of the competition. The competition has severe weaknesses and "blocker" issues. Zerocoin is the best solution but doesn't exist - and if it does come out, there will be a huge trust issue with the initial key. Bytecoin has good anonymity as a mixer but is based on an unproven/untested blockchain technology and consequently people can't trust much money on it, compared to the 5 years of running of Bitcoin. It's more like a gamble option - not something that you can throw heavy money. It also scales badly, has usability issues and is not interoperable with the bitcoin-based payment systems for merchants etc. These will hamper it for quite some time.

The fact that Cryptonote technology is superior to the current implementation of DarkSend (which will change in next revision), doesn't make it NSA-proof in itself. This means that both coins are private, not anonymous, not nearly 100% anonymous and anything else is snake oil. In essence both DRK + Cryptonote coins will be adequate for privacy, combined with IP obfuscation and "best practices" followed by the user, except if the NSA has other plans. This is like 99% privacy and the 1% to make it 100%, will require extra work from both camps. So the "superiority" aspect of Cryptonote's anonymity is null and void, unless NSA-proofing is achieved. In the meantime, the drawbacks of the whole Bytecoin system are enormous and cannot justify the "costs" for the user or the merchant. So, overall, there is no advantage in going with a Bytecoin system, over a Bitcoin-based system which is proven.

11. DRK has a coder that codes. Darkcoin has become something like a development platform of new features instead of a regular "shitcoin"-clone that offers nothing or that is stagnant.

12. Compared to LTC (which is ahead of DRK), LTC is a technological dinosaur. The LTC camp itself is worried:

https://litecointalk.org/index.php?topic=19819
https://litecointalk.org/index.php?topic=19955

Additionally, the LTC camp has failed in its primary mission to "sell" ASIC resistance, a point that would improve Bitcoin's "inadequacy". In other words, there is no reason why DRK could not exceed LTC and take #2.

13. Top-100 richlist keeps stacking when weak hands are like "maybe I should cash out": http://chainz.cryptoid.info/drk/#!rich

14. DRK has first mover advantage as the public anonymous coin which succeeded and initiated the anonymity pursuit in other coins (which are now scrambling to say DRK is scam, is a fail, is this, that, so we should take its place because we are, of course, better). Bytecoin existed from 2012 but nobody knew it until March-April 2014. By then people were already DarkSending money with Darkcoin.

Quality TA Thread becomes Mediocre Altcoin Fundamentals Thread.

I miss the quality Bitcoin TA discussion here and think that this is one of the more exciting times for it. Can we get back to that?

I would recommend Curecoin over all the previous currencies - uses the hashing power to do something useful.


And from what I've seen the Darkcoin instamining is true.

I read and disagreed with rptiela's analysis for the following reasons:

1. Darkcoin instant mining is NOT true. Darkcoin value at formation was close to zero. ANYONE could have bought available supply in the early days. The fact that the devs bought and held attests to their foresight and self belief.  But, I don't think they hold anywhere near 2 Million coins.  I know one Chinese miner who has/had 300k darks though.

2. Monero is not tested technology. I just don't know anything about it and it hasn't been around long enough.  However, if darkcoin works, why should I bother with untested tech?

3. Darkcoin is based on the bitcoin protocol, which is tested.  It is not perfect but it is definitely good enough.  

4. Darkcoin is undervalued compared to litecoin, which offers no privacy.

5. If monero tech is any good, why shouldn't I buy bytecoin, upon which it is based?

These are my objections.  Please debunk and question them.

As I read your last reply, I agree it was uncalled for. But at the moment I typed it, it was not because you came in here trying to defend your investment since Risto bashed it. DRK is on the verge of collapse anytime, we are all aware of it. You are too as you mention plenty of risks inherent to it and you refuse to take a bet that has a huge value if you really believed what you had said previously. As I say "your coin", I realise that it is the whole problem : you are attached to it emotionally.

You tell me to respect the host, but it is you that has no respect Rpetila and his readers: instead of being straightforward and nuanced at the beginning of this thread, you came in here trying to shamelessly promote something that has no future at the expand of the financial interests of the host and his readers.

Darkcoin is not Bitcoin. It's in active development. Its code is changing every day and there have been two hard forks in like 10 days. Something can go wrong with a bug, people can flash-crash it in an instant and a candle might appear at 6$. Why bet* on something like that? The masternode hack in particular can be tricky for it requires changes in stratum + p2pools. It got delayed 2 weeks and it'll still have bugs I believe, that might require extra hard fork.


Likewise, in another thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6020352


These were when DRK was like 60-70cents (0.0012) and had 2-3mn marketcap. That is my "bet".

Buy all you want. I've bought prior to you so you are actually doing good to me


That's what happens when the coin is a clone. However everyone is like "oh, litecoin was a clone too so that one might work, who knows". Maybe it does. That's why I hedged DRK with MRO. If both succeed, why not.



You don't understand what you are talking about. There is no "culmination" tomorrow in the form of a launch. It's just the next release, followed by the next release. Today it's RC2 fork which adds masternode payments, then comes RC3 with denomination changes and anonymity enhancements.

LOL. If you really believed what you were saying, you would have immediately his DRK under 6$ within 3 weeks' bet. I wish I could short DRK too for what its worth. If I were you I would just sell everything asap and convert your gains into MRO. You seem emotionnally attached to Darkcoin and that prevents you to do the best investment. It's the fastest path to financial ruin. It also prevents you to use logic in order to reason with us since you think we are hyping a coin whereas we just think it's the one that has the best value at the moment out of all the privacy coins in the market.

Anyway, you just lost all your credibility when you refused his bet. Though I would think your best move would be to leave this thread quietly so people forget about you, I think as the idiot you are you will stay and try to justify your idiocy and thus keep derailing this thread.

Popcorn.gif

For what it's worth this discussion of alt coins is useful, I think.  It is one of the biggest unknowns in the Bitcoin universe and worth exploring.

As an aside last week I bought a small stake in both Darkcoin and Monero.  The more due diligence I did the more Darkcoin I sold and shifted to Monero.   I was almost shocked to see this come up in this thread, and am living proof of the privacy narrative being a motivator for speculation.

SERIOUSLY? That is your criticism of MRO? That it doesn't have a working client? LOL. That. Is. The. Time. To. Buy.

The time to buy DRK was when it didnt have a working client and people were selling it off exchange for 20k DRK for .45 BTC.  The time to buy DRK is NOT NOW, when its been pumped and it officially launches tomorrow which means the price will CRASH in the next day or so.

$14.50 was the high for DRK - and it might be months, years, or forever before it gets there again. 

An alt has to find utility to rise after a pump and dump. Maybe DRK will. But most don't.

For the bet: I'm not a betting guy anymore.

For DRK vs MRO, have you actually tried using MRO?

Please go right now, download the client and try using it. See what it is, how it works etc. Come back and report your findings.


That's the thing.

Even if it's outside 90% of the mainstream, with just 10% of transaction going private/anonymous, it will still appeal to a 700mn marketcap.

I purchase a wise 10 btc of MRO yesterday off exchange for .00575.  I also think "privacy" will always (or for a long time) be an attractive narrative. And MRO beats DRK hands down when it comes to privacy. DRK is also a bitcoin alt, which has several disadvantages long term - although short term makes it 100xs easier to pump and dump.

I wish I could short DRK right now. Of course, I wish I would have scooped up 100k+ of it before it went to exchanges, but I just don't have time to research and monitor every fracking altcoin that gets born, to find the ones with the most potential to pump.

The obsession with protocol-enforced privacy is the new narrative.  You've drunk the koolaid and now you "want to believe."

Even ignoring all its flaws, Darkcoin will not see widespread adoption simply based on the fact that its "darkness" was not designed to appeal to the masses.  It was designed to appeal to you.  Monero will very likely not see widespread adoption either, but after the collapse of Darkcoin, it could be the logical and more legitimate continuation of the "privacy-enhanced coin" line of thought.  Although I am no fan of alt coins, if someone held a gun to my head and made me buy one, I'd pick Monero.  And when that gun is pointing the other way and people start talking about Monero's long-term potential for mass appeal, I'd trade everything I have back for bitcoin.

Hey Alex,

I will make a 10-50 BTC bet with you that Darkcoin will be <$6 sometime in the next 3 weeks?

Let me know if you are interested.

I'm comparing absolute numbers for inflation but your point is valid when you add both these facts together.

In terms of economics, the real point in altcoin inflation is this: How many USD are required per day to buy your daily supply.

LTC: 28.800 x 11$ = 316k USD
DRK: 2.880 x 12$ = 34k USD

Over a year, LTC will require 115mn USD to preserve its price (or 57.5m USD if miners hold 50% of their mining).

Over a year, DRK will require 12.4mn USD to preserve its price (or 6.2m USD if miners hold 50% of their mining). Even if DRK quadruples in price it'll still have a low requirement of 50m USD / 25m USD for 100% selloff and 50% selloff.

An insane one. The world of pumped altcoins.

In which world does an inflation of 2,880 vs. 28,800 equal one tenth, when something is scarcer by a ratio of 1:7