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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 182. (Read 907229 times)

legendary
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Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".

No, I'm talking about something like this (worst case. I think it's plausible that the correction would not go as low as 534 USD)




edit: another possibility is that we follow the same pattern as in the summer of 2013: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7II22g4/
In  that case, we might stabilize around the current price area for the next few weeks: between 580 and 620 USD
legendary
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Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".
legendary
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dnaleor, what are your targets for a correction? i have been looking at low 500s and maybe high 400s. maybe 490, not much lower. open to other thoughts, though. Smiley

I think we need to check the large fib retracements for that:


So my guess is around654.24 (fib retracement). This is also in line with the next "lower high" we need to break at 656.95 USD

Edit: this correction could go down towards the previous fib retracement around 534.07 USD
hero member
Activity: 658
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dnaleor, what are your targets for a correction? i have been looking at low 500s and maybe high 400s. maybe 490, not much lower. open to other thoughts, though. Smiley
legendary
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We are in a very strong uptrend. I expect a correction in the next few days. This can't go on. We will be breaking the support line Wink
hero member
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Stephen Reed
..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...

Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?

I plan to follow Risto's guidance with regard to the percentage of holdings to trade. I would like to capture 50% of the move - hoping for a double, but I would settle for less. My trades would be so small as to not effect the market, unlike the same percentage of Risto's holdings. Timing the peak could be different this time around, in that November 2013 had a pre-peak at $731 before the actual peak at $1163. I expect perhaps multiple of those pre-peak super-exponential rallies that mislead timers such as me.
hero member
Activity: 798
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..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...

Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?

A times three retractment from start of bubble to the top would put the price in negative figures, no ?
member
Activity: 68
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..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...

Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
If the november bubble was inflated by bots rather than human behaviour, that bubble could theoretically be discarded.
That would imply that the last real bubble was more than one year ago and that the next real human-driven bubble will soon be getting overdue. 

Yes. I find that news bullish.

not true, the bot only affected the price a little, if at all. Also, the bot later sold massive amounts of bitcoin and only the price on gox crashed beyond recover. The other markets did not break away from the long-term trend, as far as we know. Of course it's impossible to tell for sure if the current trend is the real log trend, if even such a thing exists. But with the information we have now, we can conclude we're not really affected by the bot all that much.



People like to overreact to everything. It could also simply be a bot used for high net worth customers.
legendary
Activity: 1106
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If the november bubble was inflated by bots rather than human behaviour, that bubble could theoretically be discarded.
That would imply that the last real bubble was more than one year ago and that the next real human-driven bubble will soon be getting overdue.  

Yes. I find that news bullish.

not true, the bot only affected the price a little, if at all. Also, the bot later sold massive amounts of bitcoin and only the price on gox crashed beyond recover. The other markets did not break away from the long-term trend, as far as we know. Of course it's impossible to tell for sure if the current trend is the real log trend, if even such a thing exists. But with the information we have now, we can conclude we're not really affected by the bot all that much.

We could however still see a double-bubble if wallstreet decides to move at the exact time the regular bubble starts to collapse. However i'm not sure if wallstreet is that bad at timing the market (note they may not be used to bitcoin, even if they're good at trading regular markets, they may overestimate their trading skills which may fail horribly at the bitcoin market). This is mostly wishful thinking though. This would also be a bit of a risky time to buy because often right after a bubble collapse there's a secondary peak (bull trap) and it's often not a good idea to buy during that peak. But if that very peak is the wall street traders moving in, than it's something different.

We'll see. They'll come eventually, but if it's this year or the next, or maybe even 2016 or later... we don't know.
legendary
Activity: 3892
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this just shows, again, how confusing are these minor denominations.
Yesterday while sending someone a tip for a coupon, I almost lost one of the zeroes. Would have been 10 times more than I intended.

I thought all interfaces are showing the value in both BTC and FIAT ?
Many interfaces now let you input an amount in FIAT and send the corresponding BTC.


yes, sure, that's why I caught it (was sending BTC, not fixed fiat).  Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 338
Merit: 250

this just shows, again, how confusing are these minor denominations.
Yesterday while sending someone a tip for a coupon, I almost lost one of the zeroes. Would have been 10 times more than I intended.

I thought all interfaces are showing the value in both BTC and FIAT ?
Many interfaces now let you input an amount in FIAT and send the corresponding BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 338
Merit: 250
If the november bubble was inflated by bots rather than human behaviour, that bubble could theoretically be discarded.
That would imply that the last real bubble was more than one year ago and that the next real human-driven bubble will soon be getting overdue. 

Yes. I find that news bullish.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
I think it might be a good idea to start selling small amounts as soon as we cross above the trend line.
If you have faith that this bubble will hit the same max with respect to the exponential trend as the last two bubbles did, then you can wait until Bitcoin is heavily overvalued to sell.  But the idea that we are going to have a carbon copy of the last two bubbles strikes me as a little fishy.  It's lax thinking.

I think that the worst time to sell is actually after just crossing the previous ATH. Historically rapid appreciation has always resulted. If you want to minimize the risk, just sell when it is the most overextended Smiley Otherwise you increase the risk that you are holding depreciating fiat and squander your bitcoins. My minimum sell price is $3. I can sell you CALL options with that or anything above as the strike price Smiley

Thinking that the bubbles repeat the same pattern.. if SlipperySlope would post his chart of the relative valuation - at least last time they did.

We could have a 2011 style bubble this summer.
This is bitcoin.


This is also possible. Therefore only sell 20-30% at your preferred sell point so that you can fire another if it goes up another 10x. Or use the SSS method to rule out human judgement. If you do, I suggest you set the first sell point in $2-$3 range.

I take it you mean $3 per mBTC; sorry I have to get used to thinking in terms of mBTC.  Wink

i have the same problem Wink

maybe $3 pek k Satoshi is better

You mean $3 per kBit

You mean mbit

this just shows, again, how confusing are these minor denominations.
Yesterday while sending someone a tip for a coupon, I almost lost one of the zeroes. Would have been 10 times more than I intended.
newbie
Activity: 2
Merit: 0

I wanna hear about this malicious CIA explanation. Please tell us!

CIA is tasked to acquire a great number of bitcoins without regard to method. They see that the by far the largest exchange is run by a single man show. They use their powers to extract the bitcoins from this single man. Once they have the coins (and the customer data and whatnot) this single man is given a friendly warning of not to talk anything about who the thief was. The prison sentence is likely a short one, and probably the single man has some coins tucked in a brainwallet anyway. It is only a shame that he can never reveal who actually stole the coins.
Couldn't all of the global Intel agencies get in on the act? Why would it stop at the CIA? Anonymous currency is perfect for any intelligence agency and if you're a criminal who can you tell if you're hacked/robbed?
hero member
Activity: 707
Merit: 500
A question for SlipperySlope - I was just wondering where the graph a few posts above came from, and how i would generate my own.
I see this is an important indicator going forward.. and a useful tool during periods of exponential growth.. i.e to help determine selling/exit point.

Any of these? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

Ah.. that's the one! Happy days! thanks..
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
A question for SlipperySlope - I was just wondering where the graph a few posts above came from, and how i would generate my own.
I see this is an important indicator going forward.. and a useful tool during periods of exponential growth.. i.e to help determine selling/exit point.

Any of these? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7
hero member
Activity: 707
Merit: 500
A question for SlipperySlope - I was just wondering where the graph a few posts above came from, and how i would generate my own.
I see this is an important indicator going forward.. and a useful tool during periods of exponential growth.. i.e to help determine selling/exit point.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Hi rpietila

Will you be doing a TA soon?  Dont think I have seen one since like page 174?

Or do you not do them during and upturn?


   Thanks!



Theres your TA right there Wink
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
Hi rpietila

Will you be doing a TA soon?  Dont think I have seen one since like page 174?

Or do you not do them during and upturn?


   Thanks!

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