Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 180. (Read 907229 times)

yep, and drink some Stöffli (as they say in Switzerland)

If you were into numismatics you'd understand the meaning of mintage and scarcity. There is a reason why a 1933 double eagle costs 7 million dollars: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_double_eagle

Scarcity.

There is a reason why 42 costs like 20 BTC. Scarcity & ratios.

You might not understand the scarcity factor but A LOT of people do understand it and invest insane amounts of money to acquire scarcity.

There is no "correct" or "wrong" rationality, it's just what different people value. For you a 1933 double eagle might be more like 1 oz of gold that is scrap metal - just like a 1932/31/30/29 etc. For another it is worth 7.5mn dollars. That's just how it goes.

^Simply pointing out AlexGR's broken logic.  It may be unlikely that I'll be paid 180k tons of gold for my piece of toilet paper, though the ratio I have presented is correct.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.

As a margin note, I'm cautiously optimistic about getting srs money for my autographed square of toilet paper.  Picasso paid for his meals by scribbling on napkins, just think what a NotLambchop original is worth!  It has intrinsic value (using finance definition of the phrase)--it's an integral part of Western personal hygiene, above and beyond its obvious artistic merit (intrinsic value as defined in philosophy + economic speculative value).

But who actually wants your shitty piece of toilet paper? To be honest I don't want any shitty piece of gold either, it has absolutely no use whatsoever for me. I can't eat it, I can't use it to make something useful for myself or someone else, so it's useless for me. It could be useful however as a store of value or medium of exchange if there is a consensus among people to use and value it in that way. As long as enough people agree to use it as such it suddenly does have value for me as well and I'd like to get me some. It will be hard to find enough people to form a consensus about your wonderful signed piece of toilet paper though.

Pieces of toilet paper, signed by NotLambchop, currently above ground:  One.

Average ratio of gold per toilet_paper_signed_by_NotLambchop:  180k tons to 1.

I see potential here...

Gold above ground: 180k tons
BTCs in circulation: ~12m (minus the lost ones)

Average ratio of gold per BTC = 15kg of gold for 1 BTC

By the same ratio, 1 BTC = 15kg of gold (in terms of scarcity) = 600k USD+ in terms of value per coin.

When you hear "wow, BTC overtook gold in price, this is outrageous" remember they are only talking about how BTC is more expensive than just 31.1grams of gold (troy ounce), when there are like 5.5 BILLION ounces above ground.

So 12mn BTCs vs 5.5 BILLION ounces of gold, yes, well, the BTCs are rarer, even as numismatics. It's the first trustless digital currency with mass appeal with much historic significance, like the first ancient coins out of gold, iron, silver etc.

Even if the currency for transaction is taken out of the equation, just the numismatics aspect can make them quite scarce - if only they had an appealing physical counterpart  / exceptional design (preferably at high relief). And I would rather have it in gold or platinum, sold at a low premium.

A mint could do that and have, say, 1 oz coins of precious metal PLUS one btc on them in physical form... and then sell them for like 1oz gold price + 2-5% minting price + BTC price at the time of sell + 10% margin for profit. If people go for excessive profit in this project, operation "distribute BTC" will fail. The point is to get a combined precious metal + bitcoin worth + rarity at a low premium.

Collectors and BTC enthusiasts will sweep them up big time, reducing liquidity and increasing BTC price - so it's a win-win, unless the feds want to raid a mint or something and take both gold + btcs

Even goldbugs and silverbugs who are "converts" to the BTC camp (and like both BTC + PMs) may pick some up. This market is producing millions of ounces in 1 oz rounds every year. If people got a few BTCs with these, it'd be epic.

Platinum coins should be 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5oz per coin and have 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5 BTCs loaded.
Gold coins should be 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5 oz per coin and have 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5 BTCs loaded.
Silver coins should be 1oz / 5oz and have 0.02 / 0.1  per coin.

As much as that sounds awesome, that means that the market cap (assuming most of the 21 million coins are in circulation by then) would be 21,000,000,000,000 (or 21 trillion).

I forgot where I heard about if BTC reaches 300k, that would be around gold standard.
To me, it seems mind boggling and might (or might not) go around those areas.

[edit]:  If bitcoin becomes international payment (around the world).  Seems more possible (then if it just stays mainly in one area (like China or US or something)

I think the $1M is just a good round number to make a chart with.  We don't really know what it will be when we reach full adoption.  We can guess and dream but only time will tell.

$1M is not what the market believes. It's the best guess of Slippery Slope.

Anyway, move the final value to $30k if you like and the trendline would be on the same level as it is today.

Bitcoin doesn't have to reach full adoption to achieve its fullest value - it just has to look probable that it will, its all pricing expectations ultimately.
If $1,000,000 is full value then we are currently pricing in a 0.057% chance that this happens (EDIT: not entirely accurate, lets use very low probability instead), possibly a little low? or the market does not believe that $1,000,000 is really the final value, in which case move that trendline lower as it's location is entirely dependant on slipperyslopes' $1,000,000 assumption.

Bitcoin never seizes to amaze

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

It's when you use a market order and don't get the "current best bid/ask price" when buying/selling something, but a less favorable one because in the process you're eating up all the asks/bids on the order book.

Slippage is higher when liquidity is lower. To avoid slippage, one can try buying/selling repeatedly in lower amounts over a period of time, risking the market getting away during the process.

There are two types of orders you can execute on exchanges: limit orders and market orders.

A limit order is a standing order saying you will buy X amount of what is being traded for a price of Y - For example: an order to buy 10BTC at a price of 500$. Then you wait for someone to take your offer and fill it/part of it.

A market order is just pressing "buy/sell" for a certain amount of currency at whatever the market rate happens to be at the moment. What happens when you press "market buy Bitcoin" for 10,000$ is that you buy up the currently cheapest limit orders for selling bitcoin (the "ask orders").

If you are doing a large market order it might happen to you that in order for it to get filled, it won't "consume" only the cheapest limit orders but will have to go for progressively more expensive standing limit orders in order to get fully filled. Such an action will actually move the market price up. This is what is known as slippage. If your market order which you placed when the current market rate is 500$/BTC eats up all the standing limit orders until 510$/BTC then the slippage of your buy has been 10$.

A good place to see the "walls" the limit orders are forming is Bitcoinity - the bottom chart. For explanations click "WTF?" in the upper right corner.

Pretty newbie question:

I listen sometimes this "slippage" or "slipping" concept. Could you sketch it in one or two lines?

Thanks

Did we break out of this wedge to the downside?

Grandmother ?

I have noticed this pattern of "stackable" cup and handles as a true possibility a while ago, too. Last year we already used the term "mother of all cup and handles. What would we use this year?

cross-post from wall-thread (since this is clearly quality TA):

Smoke Crack! Worship Satan! Buy Bitcoin!