rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 190.

JHammer

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Quote from: log2exp on May 23, 2014, 08:49:48 AM

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

Good Point about DRK and something I was about to ask about here.. Someone said only way to buy DRK is with BTC? And there is a BIG Pump and Dump going on right now with DRK.. Could that be a big part of what is driving BTC up right now?? If so, scary and seems pretty thin ice..

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: kehtolo on May 23, 2014, 04:31:35 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on May 23, 2014, 04:25:13 AM

Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:32:14 AM

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen! I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

So...do you usually talk about Risto with your friends?

Man, next time your bros and you organize a party tell me please, it must be crazy! Roll Eyes

Hahahahaha.. LOL.. was thinking the same..

"So.. there is this guy called Rpietila on the bitcointalk forum where i hang out.. but from now on we'll call him Risto for convenience.. well anyhoo..."

Sounds a good party.. can I get an invite too?

Aw, come on guys. You guys KNOW that you would LOVE that party. Otherwise you wouldn't be hanging out in his thread.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: log2exp on May 23, 2014, 08:49:48 AM

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

I have a project that greatly improves Bitcoin as magnet for development, infrastructure, paid order flow, and marketing. These advantages will scale linearly with market cap and thus marginalize altchains - even as they pioneer or subsequently adopt similar improvements. If the alternative technology extends Bitcoin or otherwise runs on the Bitcoin platform, then that will survive and prosper. Sidechains for Bitcoin, under somewhat stealthy development today, could provide the platform for branded coins and niche/innovative features.

In the wake of the rally now under way, I suppose that like in the November 2013 bubble, altcoins will be late to the party and fade as the bubble subsequently collapses. Assuming that altcoins as a sector are more volatile than bitcoin one could stay long in bitcoin for the moment. When the weekly price growth rate of the altcoin leaders meets or surpasses the bitcoin price growth, then switch to the altcoins you prefer, and sell at the peak, switching back long into bitcoin during the collapse.

log2exp

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As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

nanobrain

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Dumb broad

Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:32:14 AM

I can't stand your nickname though.

His name is Risto Pietila, hence RPietila.

And this from someone who calls himself "darlidada" Roll Eyes

windpath

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Quote from: ErisDiscordia on May 23, 2014, 02:36:43 AM

Sometimes (every second Friday) I think that the main objective of the US gov shutting down Silk Road actually was to get their hands on a large stash of Bitcoins without affecting the market price at all. They got around 130K coins out of that and they still might get several 100K more if they manage to beat the keys out of the Dread Pirate Roberts.

....

Conspiracy theory stuff this, but well within the realm of possibility I think.

They have already announced their intention to auction the coins off for fiat at some point in the future.

I imagine it will be a while with the blinding speed of the wheels of justice and all....

zimmah

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Hey, don't leave me out to defend the wall on my own!

kehtolo

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Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on May 23, 2014, 04:25:13 AM

Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:32:14 AM

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen! I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

So...do you usually talk about Risto with your friends?

Man, next time your bros and you organize a party tell me please, it must be crazy! Roll Eyes

Hahahahaha.. LOL.. was thinking the same..

"So.. there is this guy called Rpietila on the bitcointalk forum where i hang out.. but from now on we'll call him Risto for convenience.. well anyhoo..."

Sounds a good party.. can I get an invite too?

ShroomsKit_Disgrace

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Yeah! I hate ShroomsKit!

Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:32:14 AM

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen! I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

So...do you usually talk about Risto with your friends?

Man, next time your bros and you organize a party tell me please, it must be crazy! Roll Eyes

wachtwoord

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Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:32:14 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 23, 2014, 02:27:03 AM

Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:05:46 AM

Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Perhaps you would do better by actually reading what I predicted and when

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen! I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

I started typing Risto (his name) for this very reason

ErisDiscordia

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 22, 2014, 11:08:33 AM

Imagine if Janet Yellen and the rest of the top brass at the Federal Reserve woke up this morning and suddenly grokked everything there is to know about bitcoin, and decided to buy up as much as they could. They would print up some small sum -- 5-10 billion or so, just pocket change for the Fed -- and buy as many bitcoins as they could. Imagine they could get a significant percentage of all bitcoins -- one million or maybe several million. Can you imagine the long term consequences? I seriously doubt that they would do something that ballsy and smart at the same time. But it would be an interesting scenario!

Sometimes (every second Friday) I think that the main objective of the US gov shutting down Silk Road actually was to get their hands on a large stash of Bitcoins without affecting the market price at all. They got around 130K coins out of that and they still might get several 100K more if they manage to beat the keys out of the Dread Pirate Roberts.

Also interesting to note is that this event was immediately followed by a huge buying spree led by the Chinese - but do we really know whether Chinese individuals or the Chinese government? It might be a logical reaction to the US acquiring such a big stash. As would be their prolonged FUD campaign after the price rose too quickly.

Conspiracy theory stuff this, but well within the realm of possibility I think.

kehtolo

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Quote from: rpietila on May 23, 2014, 02:27:03 AM

Emphasis original (except the red). The fact that we did not visit sub-400's as scheduled, is itself the strongest possible evidence that the pattern is broken and we are going up. The prediction "650 in the end of June" looks conservative after seeing a few days of nice action.

Says it all to me! The market itself provided the evidence. Not saying another flashcrash cannot happen, but the one Risto was predicting definitely will not happen now, you will need to adjust your buy in point.

darlidada

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Quote from: rpietila on May 23, 2014, 02:27:03 AM

Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:05:46 AM

Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Perhaps you would do better by actually reading what I predicted and when

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen! I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

rpietila

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Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:05:46 AM

Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Perhaps you would do better by actually reading what I predicted and when:

Quote from: rpietila on May 15, 2014, 12:17:39 AM

Quote from: snakebit on May 14, 2014, 07:06:32 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 12:34:48 PM

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... Wink

)

I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. Wink

It is not a troll, it is something that I just found in the charts. Count for yourself. If the pattern continues one moor week, it means that there'll be a capitulation crash this week. And then 7 weeks of going up, all the way to $650.

So my prediction is 650 in the end of June. The crash is optional. The trolls in the other thread did not want to hear the real meaning (as usual).

Chart showing all.

Emphasis original (except the red). The fact that we did not visit sub-400's as scheduled, is itself the strongest possible evidence that the pattern is broken and we are going up. The prediction "650 in the end of June" looks conservative after seeing a few days of nice action.

chessnut

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Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:05:46 AM

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

not likely to pass this trend line for a long time, but in the mean time Im expecting a dip to 490-520

Todorius

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Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:05:46 AM

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Predictions are a probabilistic assumption of future events, what Risto prognosed was a scenario, one of several. It was probably based on a probabilistic model.
It could have happened, but it didn't turn out that way, because bitcoin is not a deterministic system. If it was, there would be lots and lots of millionaires here right now.

Basing your trading decisions on advice from others is not a good strategy in general. Make your own decisions based on thorough research, and then stick to the plan.
That's all the advice I can give you

blatchcorn

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Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:05:46 AM

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

You have had a good 3 months to buy in the dip. You missed the boat maybe? Tongue

kehtolo

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Quote from: darlidada on May 23, 2014, 02:05:46 AM

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Personally, I don't. Maybe a dip to 515-520 but i think we'll inch gradually upwards.. interspersed with spurts with biggish buys pushing the price up a bit.. a slow drift down slightly before it repeats. i think if you get in under 520 you're doing well.

darlidada

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Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: Bitcopia on May 22, 2014, 09:26:26 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 22, 2014, 06:00:15 PM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on May 22, 2014, 05:57:37 PM

Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.

But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.

Does this not refer to the point where the trendline was broken? Roughly $440.

Otherwise, we're still talking about a bear market, and this is certainly the signal of the bull.

Agreed. My observation is probably good only for a short period or if there is some news-induced sell off later on.

Because there was a pause at $800 for the month of January, I sort of expect prices to linger there for a while before soaring beyond the previous all time high.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 190. (Read 907229 times)