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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 191. (Read 907212 times)

hero member
Activity: 715
Merit: 500
Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.


But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.

Does this not refer to the point where the trendline was broken? Roughly $440.

Otherwise, we're still talking about a bear market, and this is certainly the signal of the bull.
legendary
Activity: 981
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No maps for these territories
If we break 630 consistently, the rest would be a doddle. It´s so exciting to watch when in moves like this Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.


But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.

correct, but luckily it also crossed a horizontal support line at $508 and it's knocking on the door of the $530 resistance line which is also horizontal.

the next few horizontal resistance lines should be 530, 633, 758 and 913 but i might have missed some in between.

legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.


But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.

legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
It was just example . One smart guy with shitload of money who would buy 2000Btc per day and in few years .....

What would compell such an individual to take risk while already possessing more wealth than he's going to need in the rest of his life?

Using the winklevii as an example. They won $65 million from Mark Zuckerberg. They invested some millions in bitcoin for the adventure. They think big. There are others . . .

True. I don't really get it though.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
It was just example . One smart guy with shitload of money who would buy 2000Btc per day and in few years .....

What would compell such an individual to take risk while already possessing more wealth than he's going to need in the rest of his life?

Using the winklevii as an example. They won $65 million from Mark Zuckerberg. They invested some millions in bitcoin for the adventure. They think big. There are others . . .
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
According to my research, the average sum a person would invest in bitcoins is $1000. Therefore, 4 million new users are needed in addition to the 1 million current ones to reach $7000.

That seems like a lot to ask for the next 7 months. I think chances are some bigger investment funds are going to have a big impact though.

That is only 25.8% monthly growth in userbase. Which happens to coincide with the long-term slope of the price appreciation curve.

With this adoption growth, without the logistic slowing, we would be at 2 billion people in March, 2017.

My suspicion is before we get anywhere near 2 billion people using bitcoins that there will be factors at play that will dwarf the impact on price arising out of adoption and its use in day-to-day transactions. 

My fear is as the realisation dawns on the bigger players that Bitcoin is 'the one' that it will be pumped by banks and central banks who can magic large sums of fiat into existence with which to buy bitcoin (and who may even dump gold temporarily), creating the ultimate bitcoin megabubble so that billions of latecomer ordinary people and businesses buying their first bitcoins will be shafted as the great bitcoin dump starts, into pms, into land, artwork etc. into a 'better' crypto - assets that had been neglected for the period bitcoin was so attractive, even back into fiat (they could use this point to launch more 'stable' 'new crypto-dollar or new crypto-pound etc.) until bitcoin finds a stable long-term pricepoint well below (even orders of magnitude below) the hyped price the masses bought at.  Problem is of course nobody beforehand can know what this price will be.  We would still be in a much better world than today because with bitcoin established fiats (old or new) will not be that attractive but if central banks are deliberately hyperinflating forcing people into crypto on their pump stage people could end up with 1000th of what they had before.

Btw, I'm only just exploring this idea so please point out if there's an obvious reason this is not how the future looks!

This is why having a plan similar to the SSS plan is so important.  That way, we get our money diversified out as the price rises.  And don't think that just because one set of bankers (say in the US) want to do one thing to bitcoin that they will succeed.  Maybe some Chinese or Russian bankers (or mobsters or oligarchy) will want to do something different.
newbie
Activity: 15
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And this rise would atract other investors .let's face it. Even 40k/Btc is cheap Cheesy .sooner or later there will be someone ...
legendary
Activity: 3892
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It was just example . One smart guy with shitload of money who would buy 2000Btc per day and in few years .....

I actually see the OP point. Some people are getting so much in essentially uninterruptible money flow (like Treasury coupons or Sp100 dividends) that they could easily commit to buying 1000BTC a day for a decade (at the current prices, LOL). What is 180 mil if you are getting billions/year?

However, my calculations suggest that because of a limited supply, if all millionaires decided to invest just 1% of their funds (on average) in BTC, BTC would have to rise to ~40K to accommodate them (using straight calculation without adjusting for a rise of more than $1 per $1 invested). If there is a coefficient of 3-4, then $120-160K/BTC.
newbie
Activity: 15
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legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
It was just example . One smart guy with shitload of money who would buy 2000Btc per day and in few years .....

What would compell such an individual to take risk while already possessing more wealth than he's going to need in the rest of his life?
newbie
Activity: 15
Merit: 0
It was just example . One smart guy with shitload of money who would buy 2000Btc per day and in few years .....
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
We need just one guy .smart guy with money like waren bufet .... this guy would lead addoption to insane level ... Btc is like candy .its attractivity is .....OMfg MOOOOooon....

Buffet will not buy bitcoin until he is convinced that the brand is a sort of monopoly and immune to a superior technology. That is still a question, so long as the foundation's chief scientist calls Bitcoin an experiment.

Buffet's companies will be mid to late adopters. I believe that they will use bitcoin to replace bank payments when it is obviously better to do so.

We are early adopters, paying perhaps one-thousandth the price now that Buffet or his successor will pay in a few more years.

He waited on MSFT until it was too late, but it was a monopoly for a decade or so, he just doesn't get tech. Sugar water, banks/credit cards, insurance or railroads-this is where he excels.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
My suspicion is before we get anywhere near 2 billion people using bitcoins that there will be factors at play that will dwarf the impact on price arising out of adoption and its use in day-to-day transactions.  

My fear is as the realisation dawns on the bigger players that Bitcoin is 'the one' that it will be pumped by banks and central banks who can magic large sums of fiat into existence with which to buy bitcoin (and who may even dump gold temporarily), creating the ultimate bitcoin megabubble so that billions of latecomer ordinary people and businesses buying their first bitcoins will be shafted as the great bitcoin dump starts, into pms, into land, artwork etc. into a 'better' crypto - assets that had been neglected for the period bitcoin was so attractive, even back into fiat (they could use this point to launch more 'stable' 'new crypto-dollar or new crypto-pound etc.) until bitcoin finds a stable long-term pricepoint well below (even orders of magnitude below) the hyped price the masses bought at.  Problem is of course nobody beforehand can know what this price will be.  We would still be in a much better world than today because with bitcoin established fiats (old or new) will not be that attractive but if central banks are deliberately hyperinflating forcing people into crypto on their pump stage people could end up with 1000th of what they had before.

Btw, I'm only just exploring this idea so please point out if there's an obvious reason this is not how the future looks!

Unfortunately this scenario is almost a certainty if Bitcoin achieves mass adoption, such is the nature of financial bubbles. I don't see any effective way of preventing it. Caveat emptor.

By now pretty much everyone in the world has at least heard of bitcoin and has probably heard some 'conspiricy theorists' about how corrupt banks are and how corrupt the financial system is. If they still want to hold on to their fiat, it's their own problem, let them keep their trash while it lasts.

It is not that simple. I cannot invest the majority of my assets in bitcoin even if I wanted to (I don't). Reason- 50% in various retirement accounts and 20% in real estate. I am sure the majority of folks cannot invest in BTC in their retirement account(s). When winkelvoss or secondmarket ETFs will start trading, would you consider them fiat or bitcoin? I would say that it will be rather fiatty, but could be beneficial in nature.

Regarding investing bitcoin in anything right now-I think that it is premature for most (i would probably thought otherwise if I invested into thousands of bitcoins at single digits). Why? Because the rate of return on bitcoin appreciation is so far has been vastly superior in comparison with any business return, which suggests that you should invest fiat right now in businesses that produce bitcoin, not vice versa.

Quote
Also, even though many people will at first become poorer for it (all the wealth for the first-movers has to come from somewhere) eventually the wealth will become more evenly distributed because unlike the current system there's no one who can just magically pop currency into existence. So once you spent a bitcoin, you spent it, and someone else has it. You'll have to earn more bitcoin before you can spend it again.

Perhaps BTC was in essence designed to suck in and eventually distribute all that fiat excess that was printed in 2008-2014 and teach people being prudent with their money later on.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
We need just one guy .smart guy with money like waren bufet .... this guy would lead addoption to insane level ... Btc is like candy .its attractivity is .....OMfg MOOOOooon....

Buffet will not buy bitcoin until he is convinced that the brand is a sort of monopoly and immune to a superior technology. That is still a question, so long as the foundation's chief scientist calls Bitcoin an experiment.

Buffet's companies will be mid to late adopters. I believe that they will use bitcoin to replace bank payments when it is obviously better to do so.

We are early adopters, paying perhaps one-thousandth the price now that Buffet or his successor will pay in a few more years.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
We need just one guy .smart guy with money like waren bufet .... this guy would lead addoption to insane level ... Btc is like candy .its attractivity is .....OMfg MOOOOooon....

Easy does it. Bitcoin adoption is quite fragile. The steadier rise the better (as long as you are satisfied with your current holdings denoted in BTC).
newbie
Activity: 15
Merit: 0
We need just one guy .smart guy with money like waren bufet .... this guy would lead addoption to insane level ... Btc is like candy .its attractivity is .....OMfg MOOOOooon....
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Looking at the total number of transactions (excluding popular addresses) I think one can question this break out. Thoughts?

I watch this chart daily. Three days ago I believe that the collected data was corrupted  34,888 is too low. Earlier that day values were higher.

From March, the recovery in transaction volume seems to lag. Others have suggested that this is due to an increasing portion of transactions occurring through payment processors such as BitPay and coinbase, which may be performing off-chain settlement if both parties have off-chain accounts at the payment processor.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
My suspicion is before we get anywhere near 2 billion people using bitcoins that there will be factors at play that will dwarf the impact on price arising out of adoption and its use in day-to-day transactions.  

My fear is as the realisation dawns on the bigger players that Bitcoin is 'the one' that it will be pumped by banks and central banks who can magic large sums of fiat into existence with which to buy bitcoin (and who may even dump gold temporarily), creating the ultimate bitcoin megabubble so that billions of latecomer ordinary people and businesses buying their first bitcoins will be shafted as the great bitcoin dump starts, into pms, into land, artwork etc. into a 'better' crypto - assets that had been neglected for the period bitcoin was so attractive, even back into fiat (they could use this point to launch more 'stable' 'new crypto-dollar or new crypto-pound etc.) until bitcoin finds a stable long-term pricepoint well below (even orders of magnitude below) the hyped price the masses bought at.  Problem is of course nobody beforehand can know what this price will be.  We would still be in a much better world than today because with bitcoin established fiats (old or new) will not be that attractive but if central banks are deliberately hyperinflating forcing people into crypto on their pump stage people could end up with 1000th of what they had before.

Btw, I'm only just exploring this idea so please point out if there's an obvious reason this is not how the future looks!

Unfortunately this scenario is almost a certainty if Bitcoin achieves mass adoption, such is the nature of financial bubbles. I don't see any effective way of preventing it. Caveat emptor.

it's in my opinion a very likely possibility and although it's completely evil to do that, anyone who invested before the banks (that means we all), would also get enormous wealth in the process, provided you use hold on your bitcoins for long enough and than use a fraction of your enormous wealth to buy hard assets, such as houses, land, stock, maybe even complete companies, and whatever you like. Maybe some precious metal as well although they may lose much of their value if bitcoin becomes gold 2.0

So even though this scenario will bring many people into poverty i'd still be happy if it happens. By now pretty much everyone in the world has at least heard of bitcoin and has probably heard some 'conspiricy theorists' about how corrupt banks are and how corrupt the financial system is. If they still want to hold on to their fiat, it's their own problem, let them keep their trash while it lasts.

Also, even though many people will at first become poorer for it (all the wealth for the first-movers has to come from somewhere) eventually the wealth will become more evenly distributed because unlike the current system there's no one who can just magically pop currency into existence. So once you spent a bitcoin, you spent it, and someone else has it. You'll have to earn more bitcoin before you can spend it again.
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