Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 193. (Read 907212 times)

I agree molecular and am happy that the longer term will be free of the consequences of the weaponry fiat money has provided governments with to wield against the governed.  I'm beginning to think though that I have been naive in thinking it would all happen fairly smoothly.  I had previously been quite dismissive of the doom 'n gloom scenarios painted where disenfranchised fiat bag holders are literally up in arms against the new wealthy in a kind of apocalyptic scenario.  However I'm now thinking the transition may be rougher and with much more suffering than I had previously thought.

What got me dismayed just in reading Risto's 2 billion reference was the idea that though not a pyramid scheme, the timing and price of buying-in for the vast majority may end up that they lose out big time.

One of the problems in acquiring all the BTCs by using new fiat is that they'll make every BTC holder rich and make BTC very desirable. You can't buy many BTCs without launching the price to the moon and having everyone say "wow" - increasing attraction and buying interest to it. Certainly not millions of BTCs.

The best strategy is to buy their way in through cycles* of FUD/euphoria or mine it.

* These people don't react to the market. They make the market. They make the "news". They make the political decisions that are then broadcasted as "news". If they make a scenario where BTC is painted under a problematic light for a few days they can buy for cheap, sell for high, repeat the FUD by triggering "bad news", rebuy the panic sellers etc etc. Even china "grasped" the fud/buy mechanism and experimented with it.

No... you have outlined a very probable scenario IMO.  I am not so sure we will see such massive manipulation by central banks, but I don't think that will change the outcome.

One point.  In each industry destroyed by distributed networks (music, newsprint, taxi service), the old guard has held on and fought tooth and nail until it was so overwhelmed by the change that it had NO other choice than to adapt and innovate.  Things like record companies had a LOT of money and power to ride out the fight.  Reserve banks have more power than almost anything on earth.  In some ways it is already too late for them.

It would be quite silly if we wouldn't regularly end up much higher than where we started from after the "crash". Those "bubbles" don't burst all the way. Noone who got "suckered in" and held lost any money (with the exception of the last cycle, of course, but that might turn out to not be an exception either). Only those buying in at above the post-crash value of the "last bitcoin bubble" will have made a bad decision. I think we have at least 2 more to go.


I think there are many billions of people out there who still don't understand crypto. Don't you worry, it's not an easy concept and it takes people a lot of time to wrap their heads around the concept. (see Peter Schiff, who seems to be quite intelligent, but took his time (if he managed to wrap his head around bitcoin) despite the fact that there were certainly enough people offering to explain to him).

I think we have at least 2 more to go.

Strange times, indeed.

If you own a node, you can get fees from transactions.  You help maintain the network.  Mr rpietila has super nodes and can explain this better than I can.

Forgive my ignorance, but what is a supernode?

I don't think we will need to worry about that.  The momentum is here.  Digital money is a sure thing, and every day that goes by without bitcoin being broken, or replaced means it is most likely going to be bitcoin.  The development i under way.  It's all just a matter of time.  I'm not saying there cannot be surprises in store.  In fact I think they are a guarantee.

If that happens we might not end up with the assets / bitcoin and all the stuff in the most desirable hands, true. However what makes me have a positive long-term outlook (for humanity, I personally might be gone by the time we see the fruits of this) is the fact that we will then have transitioned to a sound money regime, which should have the effect of a fairer, more level playing-field and much a more efficient economy that puts much less strain on our human and natural resources than what we currently have (the fiat-fuelled continuous growth paradigm that keeps producing these cancerous escapades and keeps hurting us).

So even if entities that don't "deserve" it end up with the most wealth initially (by the way you described), after the transition is complete that wealth will dissipate from them if they make bad decisions towards the people that make good decisions. If they make "good" decisions on the other hand, they get to keep and grow their wealth, and rightly so. Noone will be bailed out by the taxpayer as is the case now (no more inflation tax) and everybody will suffer or enjoy the consequences of their actions, as should be.

I hope it'll work out and I hope I'll be able to see and live it, too. Crypto is our best shot at this.

This view may be simplistic or even naive, but for lack of better options I hold it (and bitcoin, too ;-) )

The 'final crash' idea is a new one to me and I would like to think it won't happen.  But:

If the big banks and central banks realise bitcoin is going to happen whether they like it or not;
If some of the world's wealthiest are beginning to put serious money into bitcoin both increasing its value and devaluing the fiat they're taking it out of;
If they are realising that it's game over for the fiat game as has been played for the best part of the last 100 years;
If they know they currently, but if they're not careful temporarily, have more buying power than anybody else;

...why they would not deliberately pump, forcing everybody out of fiat only to then diversify into pms and other assets at the top, deliberately dumping bitcoin to promote their new fiat currencies?  It will be their last chance to keep as much of their advantage (in terms of relative wealth) because the days of 'magicing' money into existence will be over.


Been really busy Risto and not going to make it to Malla this time.  Good to hear the development is going well   All the best with it.  Look forward to hearing the reports.

where can we find the information for the Malla conference, presumably at your castle in Estonia?  Is it public, or an invitation-only kind of thing?

Extrapoloting...

In the same way that morpheus tells neo that he won't have to cash out at BTC $10000 (or whatever). Neither will the big guys have to. I think when if the time comes that BTC is inherently worth that much its too late to worry about buying or selling it (from a speculative investment POV) its more about how much you have (how much you got when the getting was good). So I don't think there will be a final crash, I think this line of reasoning justifies the 'exponential pulse' pattern we see now. The value that fiat represents (if its going to) won't smoothly migrate from fiat into BTC. If its going to it would likely follow this pattern as people get in cheap and then take profits. All the profit takers do is delay the inevitable, the transfer of wealth continues, and gets ahead of itself. When I saw it the first time, it seemed like a bubble that burst. The second time I thought wow, it did it again, the third time I thought, this is ridiculous, this kind of repeated behaviour is entirely without justification and absolutely will not continue.

And yet here we are all wondering whether this is the next one. Many here will be as cynical as I. Pah we;ve seen it all before, like anyone is going to get suckered into this silly pump/dump cycle again. (Just like we thought last time?)

How many millions of people out there are still entirely oblivious to all of this and ready to fuel this go-round?

What about the next one?

Is this really 'institutional investors' stage?

Strange times.

Build your supernode on time. Sign up for the Malla conference in June 27-29.!

And even when you know this will happen it's hard to take advantage as the currency you can exchange Bitcoin for will be undergoing a significant and permanent loss in purchasing power. Maybe changing for fiat and then immediately (without delay) investing in a diverse set of items is the best tactic, but while this is happening a huge stock market crash might also occur simultaneously.

Thinks will end up getting complex very very quickly.

Unfortunately this scenario is almost a certainty if Bitcoin achieves mass adoption, such is the nature of financial bubbles. I don't see any effective way of preventing it. Caveat emptor.

My suspicion is before we get anywhere near 2 billion people using bitcoins that there will be factors at play that will dwarf the impact on price arising out of adoption and its use in day-to-day transactions. 

My fear is as the realisation dawns on the bigger players that Bitcoin is 'the one' that it will be pumped by banks and central banks who can magic large sums of fiat into existence with which to buy bitcoin (and who may even dump gold temporarily), creating the ultimate bitcoin megabubble so that billions of latecomer ordinary people and businesses buying their first bitcoins will be shafted as the great bitcoin dump starts, into pms, into land, artwork etc. into a 'better' crypto - assets that had been neglected for the period bitcoin was so attractive, even back into fiat (they could use this point to launch more 'stable' 'new crypto-dollar or new crypto-pound etc.) until bitcoin finds a stable long-term pricepoint well below (even orders of magnitude below) the hyped price the masses bought at.  Problem is of course nobody beforehand can know what this price will be.  We would still be in a much better world than today because with bitcoin established fiats (old or new) will not be that attractive but if central banks are deliberately hyperinflating forcing people into crypto on their pump stage people could end up with 1000th of what they had before.

Btw, I'm only just exploring this idea so please point out if there's an obvious reason this is not how the future looks!

That is only 25.8% monthly growth in userbase. Which happens to coincide with the long-term slope of the price appreciation curve.

With this adoption growth, without the logistic slowing, we would be at 2 billion people in March, 2017.

I disagree that these 'glaze over' people are those who are going to make or break wider acceptance of bitcoin.  If it is a good enough speculative vehicle for substantive liquidity (that we may well be heading towards with SecondMarket, ETFs etc) then as a means of 'clearing' intra-bank and intra-currency I believe it likely to prove of value.  Also in the meantime, outside of countries where, despite the abuse of banks and central banks, our currencies are for the time being relatively stable and it's fairly easy for most of us to get bank accounts there is an immediate use for it - especially as the service providers are beginning to mature and offer easy integration with apps and even SMS-based products.

And my current assessment of something else coming along and taking over if Bitcoin doesn't dominate quick enough is that the odds are moving towards the eventual dominating technology being bitcoin-based i.e. integrated into the existing (such as with the potential of treechains) rather than a competitor, whether altcoin or another competing technology, making bitcoin itself irrelevant.

As a little note of caution one should be sceptical of my neutrality in making such assessments given I am heavily invested and therefore like many here prone to many of the investment biases!

Bull markets seem to come closer and closer together but the size and fall get smaller and smaller (in relative terms, we're rising exponentially here). This is all based on too little data points to be certain thought. This will keep things interesting

...A thing of beauty, that.

Here is a 3-day resolution chart of the breakout rally that probably marks the end of the November 2013 bubble collapse. My logistic model says the prices must rise about $10 each day to stay parallel with the long term Log10 trend. The trend price for today by the way is $1344.