wtf just happened?
Your computer went to sleep? F5 FTW
Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 194. (Read 907212 times)
Your computer went to sleep? F5 FTW
wtf just happened?
My point is I see lots of folks here who actually seem to expect it to be a bull market identical in scale and period to to previous, and it COULD happen... but it is less likely each time IMHO.
I think it could be argued both ways that an almost fanatical devotion, belief and desire for BTC to succeed will be what supports it through the dark times and ultimately helps realise that fate.
My worry is that there might not be enough of those people for us to reach critical mass and get the inertia to carry this through to adoption by the masses. The kind of people whom when you mention bitcoin, they start to glaze over because you are making them confront their fragile world view. People don't want things to change, they don't want to think. They just want to go about their business. Those are the people that could end up being the deciding factor as to whether BTC becomes new money, or remains a niche system on the edges of the internet that only dreamers, radicals and geeks ever use.
Another fiat currency crisis + 2nd market institutional exchange + ETF + worldwide ATM dispersal --> OMFG!
I hate this cliche but it could be "a perfect storm..."
I hate this cliche but it could be "a perfect storm..."
Is anyone aware of any in-depth bitcoin vs altcoin analyses which group altcoins based on certain parameters and compare conversion movement vs btc/usd?
As bitcoin moves towards what seems to be an inevitable progression/'progression'? into a not so anonymous and likely quite regulated transaction medium, it would be interesting to assess the conversion rate differences above, esp as the next potential bubbles may involve a greater proportion of banking and traditional investment vs its libertarian and anarchic origins.
This seems already to be leading to a darker market, which may grow more separate from bitcoin (whereas in the past, altcoins were less focused on anonymity etc). It also still remains to be seen what the growth in marketcap will look like, as a composition of libertarian/anarchist vs large investment / VC vs small speculators ('masses').
If indeed bitcoin does continue to shed its anarchic roots, this will likely continue more dramatically through the next 1 or 2 bubble phases.
As bitcoin moves towards what seems to be an inevitable progression/'progression'? into a not so anonymous and likely quite regulated transaction medium, it would be interesting to assess the conversion rate differences above, esp as the next potential bubbles may involve a greater proportion of banking and traditional investment vs its libertarian and anarchic origins.
This seems already to be leading to a darker market, which may grow more separate from bitcoin (whereas in the past, altcoins were less focused on anonymity etc). It also still remains to be seen what the growth in marketcap will look like, as a composition of libertarian/anarchist vs large investment / VC vs small speculators ('masses').
If indeed bitcoin does continue to shed its anarchic roots, this will likely continue more dramatically through the next 1 or 2 bubble phases.
Perhaps it is less likely to happen, but almost any scenario is possible.
What about 2010-2011 repetition: going from 340 to 300K-500k in a superbubble, then deflating back to 30-50K in a year or two, then slowly getting back to all time high over twenty years. I have seen charts overlaying 2010-2011 percentages over the current chart (they show potential to 100K, I believe).
Chance- maybe 1%, but certainly not zero.
What about 2010-2011 repetition: going from 340 to 300K-500k in a superbubble, then deflating back to 30-50K in a year or two, then slowly getting back to all time high over twenty years. I have seen charts overlaying 2010-2011 percentages over the current chart (they show potential to 100K, I believe).
Chance- maybe 1%, but certainly not zero.
I too expect that there's a good probability of a "mega bubble" scenario later this year or perhaps next. I'm not sure if we'll hit 300k, but I think many people will be floored by how fast it goes. And I disagree that the chance of another speculative bubble becomes less likely each time; history will most likely reveal that we're still in the "innovator" stage right now in the bitcoin adoption curve, and the masses are only just beginning to take notice.
My point is I see lots of folks here who actually seem to expect it to be a bull market identical in scale and period to to previous, and it COULD happen... but it is less likely each time IMHO.
Perhaps it is less likely to happen, but almost any scenario is possible.
What about 2010-2011 repetition: going from 340 to 300K-500k in a superbubble, then deflating back to 30-50K in a year or two, then slowly getting back to all time high over twenty years. I have seen charts overlaying 2010-2011 percentages over the current chart (they show potential to 100K, I believe).
Chance- maybe 1%, but certainly not zero.
What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
There seems to be a very strong trend among Bitcoin folks to almost certainly expect the market to almost go up in a straight line.
The idea that the next move will be exactly like the last few is extremely simplistic and potentially the road to disappointment.
One argument against it is simply that at some point we can just no longer see 10x or 100x price growth. It is not sustainable even with the most positive circumstances. On the other hand we may be underestimating the fundamentals behind the next bull market. As mass institutional and public money starts to rush in it might make previous bubbles look tiny in comparison.
Then there are the black swans. Bitcoin 2.0 (monero, darkcoin, anonycoin (tee hee) whatever) could gain momentum and end up taking down BTC 1.0 and adding another 3-4 years of speculation.
My point is I see lots of folks here who actually seem to expect it to be a bull market identical in scale and period to to previous, and it COULD happen... but it is less likely each time IMHO.
coins like monero will be a niche market. BTC is too big. It is the market leader. It is semi-transparant, so the government is happy people use that in stead of things like MRO. Monero and others will be used on the darknet and by people who want to have true financial privacy.
I don't doubt those anoncoins would be valuable in the future, but they will probably not overtake the market cap of bitcoin.
What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
There seems to be a very strong trend among Bitcoin folks to almost certainly expect the market to almost go up in a straight line.
The idea that the next move will be exactly like the last few is extremely simplistic and potentially the road to disappointment.
One argument against it is simply that at some point we can just no longer see 10x or 100x price growth. It is not sustainable even with the most positive circumstances. On the other hand we may be underestimating the fundamentals behind the next bull market. As mass institutional and public money starts to rush in it might make previous bubbles look tiny in comparison.
Then there are the black swans. Bitcoin 2.0 (monero, darkcoin, anonycoin (tee hee) whatever) could gain momentum and end up taking down BTC 1.0 and adding another 3-4 years of speculation.
My point is I see lots of folks here who actually seem to expect it to be a bull market identical in scale and period to to previous, and it COULD happen... but it is less likely each time IMHO.
Here's a fresh set of forecasts - hopefully self-explanatory:
What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
Im sure that by the end of the month those graphics can become reality, we can stand up to as much as 5,000
To raise bitcoin price to the level that many dream of, $7000, only $4 billion is needed if the market-cap-increase-leverage is 20:1.
We are talking about 1.7 million bitcoins changing hands during the uptrend. That is 14% of all bitcoins.
According to my research, the average sum a person would invest in bitcoins is $1000. Therefore, 4 million new users are needed in addition to the 1 million current ones to reach $7000.
Who is going to be bitcoins Hunt brothers and will try to "corner" the market. As moderator quote shows-it is relatively easy to accomplish right now. Many hedge funds can swing $4 bil. All it takes is 4-5 medium-large hedge funds and a "strategy".
My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.
It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.
I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.
It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.
I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.
It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.
I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.
It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.
I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.
Maybe, but I still think there will be another dip below 400.
^^-- I think we have run out of suckers to accomplish that.
The last moves that totalled 10.5% in 2 days were carried out with a total volume of 32kBTC in Bitstamp. If we assume that the global net demand volume was twice that (very conservative indeed), it means that 64kBTC, which is 0.52% of the bitcoin market cap, was bought with the effect of 10.5% increase in market cap. This is 20:1.
To raise bitcoin price to the level that many dream of, $7000, only $4 billion is needed if the market-cap-increase-leverage is 20:1.
We are talking about 1.7 million bitcoins changing hands during the uptrend. That is 14% of all bitcoins.
According to my research, the average sum a person would invest in bitcoins is $1000. Therefore, 4 million new users are needed in addition to the 1 million current ones to reach $7000.
That seems like a lot to ask for the next 7 months. I think chances are some bigger investment funds are going to have a big impact though.
My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.
It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.
I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.
It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.
I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.
It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.
I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.
It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.
I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.
Maybe, but I still think there will be another dip below 400.
^^-- I think we have run out of suckers to accomplish that.
The last moves that totalled 10.5% in 2 days were carried out with a total volume of 32kBTC in Bitstamp. If we assume that the global net demand volume was twice that (very conservative indeed), it means that 64kBTC, which is 0.52% of the bitcoin market cap, was bought with the effect of 10.5% increase in market cap. This is 20:1.
To raise bitcoin price to the level that many dream of, $7000, only $4 billion is needed if the market-cap-increase-leverage is 20:1.
We are talking about 1.7 million bitcoins changing hands during the uptrend. That is 14% of all bitcoins.
According to my research, the average sum a person would invest in bitcoins is $1000. Therefore, 4 million new users are needed in addition to the 1 million current ones to reach $7000.
Here's a fresh set of forecasts - hopefully self-explanatory:
Is the code somewhere online? github/bitbucket? seems much too conservative to me as well, and it seems to be a lot of work to create an accurate probability chart like that. If i have a lot of spare time this summer and don't know what else to do i might give it a try but i doubt it. Regular charting seems to be much faster.
Only in Bitcoinland is a 10x price increase in one year labelled as "conservative"...
yes, i know, makes you wonder why so many people are still skeptical.
Yesterday the price jumped $30 in like two hours or less and people were still saying "it's not a real price jump"
If that would happen on forex people would go insane.
$30 in two hours. If we had just $10 per two hours for next week the price would be over $1300 in 7 days.
When Bitcoin decides to move up it can happen insanely fast. I was just thinking that with a greater number of people involved now we could even see larger jumps in price than we did in November.
seems much too conservative to me as well, and it seems to be a lot of work to create an accurate probability chart like that. If i have a lot of spare time this summer and don't know what else to do i might give it a try but i doubt it. Regular charting seems to be much faster.
Only in Bitcoinland is a 10x price increase in one year labelled as "conservative"...
yes, i know, makes you wonder why so many people are still skeptical.
Yesterday the price jumped $30 in like two hours or less and people were still saying "it's not a real price jump"
If that would happen on forex people would go insane.
seems much too conservative to me as well, and it seems to be a lot of work to create an accurate probability chart like that. If i have a lot of spare time this summer and don't know what else to do i might give it a try but i doubt it. Regular charting seems to be much faster.
Only in Bitcoinland is a 10x price increase in one year labelled as "conservative"...
Here's a fresh set of forecasts - hopefully self-explanatory:
What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
seems much too conservative to me as well, and it seems to be a lot of work to create an accurate probability chart like that. If i have a lot of spare time this summer and don't know what else to do i might give it a try but i doubt it. Regular charting seems to be much faster.
What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
I don't have time to do the exercise, but I can muse about the most likely results: the multiples predicted by my method should presumably be relatively stable, or at least they should change slowly. From Jan to Apr 2013 the price went up 20x, whereas this model would say there was a 50% chance of a 70% increase in three months. It would say that the 20x increase in price was a 1% probability event. But then again, the increase in price didn't really last either, so even if it happened it quickly unhappened...
But then again, you are asking about predicting the top of a bubble from the bottom of the valley, which is not the intention of the model - this model is intended to be more in the trend-department rather than the bubble prediction department. And in that respect, I think it is as good as any and better than most.
Great model. Who can predict bubbles? Impossible.
What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.
Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.
My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.
I don't have time to do the exercise, but I can muse about the most likely results: the multiples predicted by my method should presumably be relatively stable, or at least they should change slowly. From Jan to Apr 2013 the price went up 20x, whereas this model would say there was a 50% chance of a 70% increase in three months. It would say that the 20x increase in price was a 1% probability event. But then again, the increase in price didn't really last either, so even if it happened it quickly unhappened...
But then again, you are asking about predicting the top of a bubble from the bottom of the valley, which is not the intention of the model - this model is intended to be more in the trend-department rather than the bubble prediction department. And in that respect, I think it is as good as any and better than most.
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