rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 195.

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: bitfair on May 21, 2014, 08:32:54 AM

Here's a fresh set of forecasts - hopefully self-explanatory:

What happens when you apply this same forecast to the historical data before the previous run-ups?

Apply it to Jan 1, 2013 and see if you get $266 in April.

Apply it to September 1, 2013 and see if you get $1200 in December.

My guess is that this is too conservative, but I would like to see what you get.

bitfair

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Here's a fresh set of forecasts - hopefully self-explanatory:

dnaleor

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Quote from: zimmah on May 20, 2014, 04:34:48 PM

Maybe they also kinda reinforce each other.

that is indeed a possibility. Will give more attention to log charts for medium term from now on. I really thought the rally would start a few days sooner.
Now it seems we need to break a second log downtrend around 550 USD.
But i'm pretty confident it will happen. This is just the last hurdle

zimmah

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Probably because a break from the log trend confirms that the trend is truly reversing while a linear break could also be caused by a random price movement.

Maybe they also kinda reinforce each other.

dnaleor

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Just found out that the market seems to react to the exponential downtrend trendline. That surprises me...
I really thought that "the crowd' would use the linear charts for TA and the log chart for long term

edit: compare this chart with the linear chart:

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: zimmah on May 20, 2014, 12:47:18 PM

Also note that I have drawn most of these trendlines weeks ago, but i have never published these charts because i never charted before and i wanted to make sure the trendlines were no fluke.

As you can see they are pretty damn accurate.

Great start in your role as chartist. Plus it is much more fun to chart a breakout.

Finally we had a week in which the saying "this week is critical" actually held true.

zimmah

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as you can see from this chart it has followed either the bottom or the middle downtrend line (that's a log chart btw) quite consistently. The stability of the past week has moved us away from the middle negative trendline and we are heading for the first resistance line (at about $508) which we will likely hit around the same time we will break the upper downtrend (which we will probably ignore in favor of the lower uptrend).

The top uptrend is so high it's not even visible on the chart, but it's there and it currently at about $3000 or so, but it will reach $5000ish in July, like many others have predicted.

As the price rises it will most likely rush towards the upper uptrend, like it always did till now.

If the price stays above 508.45 for a day or breaks the upper downtrend for a day i personally declare the bull run officially started. Especially if the volume of these moves is high.

Also note that I have drawn most of these trendlines weeks ago, but i have never published these charts because i never charted before and i wanted to make sure the trendlines were no fluke.

As you can see they are pretty damn accurate.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

And the rally is looking better hour by hour. Here is the 3-day resolution chart from Bitstamp that shows the penetration of the resistance trendline that I drew back to the November 2013 peak.

I suppose that fiat holders waiting for prices to go even lower are buying back in a panic now. This happened to me last summer and I vowed never again. I am going to the the Bitcoin ATM to buy my daily fractional bitcoin.

Its About Sharing

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Antifragile

Quote from: zimmah on May 20, 2014, 11:38:18 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 20, 2014, 11:27:26 AM

My Gann chart is interesting. Worked extremely well in the past for me. Note how we bounced just as we were about to hit green resistance. The black and red lines above would be the next resistance levels.

looks reasonable, but why linear?

Great question and I'm afraid I've just fallen into the habit of using linear charts on the daily.
But, I have to play with it (Log) now, especially on my weekly chart.
Thanks for the idea!

BTW - I backtested different scales and found this one (6:1) to be the most reliable. But it varies.

Edit - I just tried and I can't lock the scale with the log chart. In other words, no way to reliably save the chart. And, it doesn't look good technically, at least regarding this move.

zimmah

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Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 20, 2014, 11:27:26 AM

My Gann chart is interesting. Worked extremely well in the past for me. Note how we bounced just as we were about to hit green resistance. The black and red lines above would be the next resistance levels.

looks reasonable, but why linear?

windpath

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Watching you all hoping to catch a glimpse into the future...

Most of your charts are Greek to me, but this I understand:

Seems like the consensus is this may be the beginning of the next big climb?

Its About Sharing

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Antifragile

My Gann chart is interesting. Worked extremely well in the past for me. Note how we bounced just as we were about to hit green resistance. The black and red lines above would be the next resistance levels.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

This rally is looking more like a real breakout above the resistance trendline that goes back to the November 2013 peak.

Carra23

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Quote from: rpietila on May 20, 2014, 12:34:48 AM

My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.

It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.

I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.

It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.

I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.

Maybe, but I still think there will be another dip below 400.

Hen0xyd

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First the linear broke on 15th April.
Now we finaly broke this 6-months log downtrendline, I feel pretty confident but I would appreciate 2 more green candles with volume !

I did some charts yesterday expecting this log breakout, let's hope the full picture will be the same:)
https://www.tradingview.com/v/zmcYjA0i/ (press play to load the real-time update)

As some of you are TA experts and got some experience I'd be glad to get your remarks about my chart,
=> especially about the SMMA & EMA crossing log resistance trendline. It seems it's used to announce the rockets launch on bitcoin.

zimmah

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Quote from: rpietila on May 20, 2014, 12:34:48 AM

My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.

It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.

I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.

It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.

I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.

I allready switched to bull a few days ago, and the current trend is reinforcing my stance on it. I also posted some outcomes I think are realistic possibilities and how they would affect my view.

Something like: (I don't know exactly)

If the price hits 500 at or before may 25th it's very bullish
If the price hits 410 at or before may 26th it's very bearish and it will need to retest 330
If the price stays around 450 at June 20 it's bearish and might also need to retest 330.

For now it's bullish and holding strong, even reinforcing itself.

Todorius

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My prediction from last week, that we might very well reach 500$ this week, looks better and better by the hour Grin

I love bitcoin. It never fails to surprise!

rpietila

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The trial round for the Price Prediction Contest, started in 2014-4-17 and ended 2014-5-17.

The price ended up being 448.39 $/BTC.

The participants received points as follows:

sgbett   1,7231
Trolololo   1,7231
bcdev   1,5213
chessnut   1,3533
Its About Sharing   1,2692
Guinpen   0,8154
wachtwoord   0,6809
pietje   0,6809
rpietila   0,5128
wilfried   0,5128
Bronstad   0,2967
elg   0,167
ArticMine   -0,748
HeliKopterBen   -1,7543
Superluz   -1,9746
ibuyltc   -122,8316 <- ELIMINATED (less than -20 points)

segeln

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Quote from: rpietila on May 20, 2014, 12:34:48 AM

My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.

It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.

I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.

It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.

I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.

cross my fingers for that
it still might be a false breakout
where did you cruise and what ship?

Syke

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Quote from: rpietila on May 20, 2014, 12:34:48 AM

I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly.

Aw, #firstworldproblems.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 195. (Read 907229 times)