Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 20. (Read 907231 times)

I had 37 days of BCT time online when I thought "this is becoming stupid". Since that, the figure has risen to 100 days! That's a lot of time

It's not only BTC but also Crypto Kingdom that is on the verge of a major breakout. That's what I have been doing as my post history reveals! 

Just an ethereum pump and dump scam combined with Max Keiser pumping some useless coin called Factom.

As for "full blocks", see comment below:

Welcome back, Risto, I have missed seeing your comments.  I hope all has been well for you; our friend TPTB is still cranking out posts non-stop.

Your timing in returning is good, maybe something interesting is about to happen...

Hello everybody.

I agree with you, Risto: we could be watching a massive turning point.

It's also probable that we'll see the top of the bubble way before the halving
(the halving is spected by July 11th, according to bitcoinblockhalf.com)

[/quote]

The altcoin market cap more than doubled within those last months when the bitcoin blocks became full.

That said, I think that we are in a significant or massive turning point, in a much greater probability than the average statistical.

It is very ungrateful to forecast massive rises with any precision in timing. In the 5 years, there has been 14 rises of any significance. This is less than 1 rise (or turning point) in 4 months!! So if the turning point needs to be forecast in a 2 week precision, the probability to hit it randomly is about 12%.

Even if you are 4 times better in forecasting the rise than average, which is a skill that causes great profits to fall upon you, you are still wrong 52% of the time in your forecasts and stupider pundits say that you cannot forecast better than a broken clock.

It has become obvious by now that the basketball cannot be held underwater any longer. 500 will be tested again next week except this time it will be broken.

(I am now talking in daily/weekly candles) as soon as the volume drops, the price rises a notch.

Is it a hand, holding underwater an item of enormous buoyancy, and the hand is slowly losing its strength?

Or is it just me? 

Hodl.

I agree, and sometimes traders, such as Matt are just too extreme in their approach.


Surely, i don't claim to be any BTC trading geneous; however, I just don't play with a lot of my stash....

Even in that regard, when the price is booming, I don't make as much, either.  In recent weeks, I had been attempting to get my allocation in the 95% bitcoin and 5% fiat range.. yet when the price is going up, I am selling and currently my BTC trading holdings are about 93% bitcoin and 7% fiat.. If the price keeps going up, then maybe I will end up in the 75% bitcoin territory... fuck... I prefer not to, but you know I just go with the flow.

On the other hand, if Matt is waiting and waiting and waiting to buy in, that just does not seem to be making much sense... you can buy in a little bit on this dip down from $457.80 to $453 and then sell some of that if it goes up and keep some fiat to buy more if it goes down...

Don't put all of your eggs in the below $440 basket or the below $430 basket,  the below $400 basket or the below $350 basket, even though it makes sense to have some fiat on hand in the event that prices do go down to those lower price levels... The main point seems to be that a lot of the factors seem to be lining up for upwards.. but if we want to protect our portfolio and don't get too greedy, we cannot bet all of our chips on "UP", either....

 just saying... 

It might continue on down, but as long as $431 holds, or even $423, it is good territory.

Like you, i watched the rise up, higher higher lows $350, $360, $390, $403, $412. I was confident we would break above $423 and hold, after a failed attempt a week earlier failed at $427.

So the break of $423 to $433, back down to mid $423, held support and took off was confirmation for me. I got in at $425 at the retracement.

Obviously, i see your hesitation, as you are looking for a close to 100% confirmation.

To me, however, it seems you are too cautious. Evident from when you missed the break above $423 that held as support on retracement from $435 (highlighted). This is natural, because in an uptrend, different traders will set up trades on the rise at different levels (of confidence for example).

My 2 cents

Well, I talk about manipulators because I remain of the belief that we have to continue to account for such a dynamic in part because bitcoin's market cap remains relatively small, and there seems to be a considerable amount of both financial and political incentives to make attempts at manipulation.. .yet manipulation remains only part of the story, and likely harder to achieve the larger bitcoin becomes in several ways, including price pressures by a larger and larger variety of actors.




I don't make any meaningful attempts to predict shorter term price moves or even potential's for quick 10% to 15% adjustment of the price based on short term momentum that may be caused by a narrow set of factors.  Some of this is just difficult to know for me and probably for anyone except someone playing with a lot of coins, and I don't want to spend that much time analyzing the various exchanges in order to make such attempts at short-term price predictions...   Accordingly, I attempt to prepare my own buying and selling for at least a quick and unexpected 15% price surge.. and then to readjust along the way in case the price surge continues in the same direction (or the easier outcome when the price momentum nearly immediately reverses directions).  These days I try not to run low of either fiat or bitcoin.. even if there is a price surge. .and anyhow, my trading amounts are not really a vary large percentage of my total holdings... which seems safer than trying to bet on short term green or red, which seems nearly impossible.




O.k.   We know that previous price points remain relevant... showing either areas where support or resistance builds up - . yeah and breaking through those can cause trends.. or changes in trends, yet we may remain unclear about interpretation while in the middle of it.




Personally, I believe that is a risk and a problem when you play too much balls to the walls, and it just is neither my style or my tolerance.  I would rather set up my strategy to for sure win in smaller increments rather than gambling and winning bigger (with more uncertainty)... ... but different strokes for different folks... you surely can win bigger when you gamble, and younger people can still make up for screw ups... the older you are the more you also need to preserve your capital  (but still hopefully able to use the capital before death - because it is not going to do a lot of good to build up a fortune and then never be able to use it because of death).

This is just not true.  All of his posts (the prohashing guy) concerning Litecoin are pure fantasy.  He talks about how some huge changes will be made to Litecoin and/or how the market is going to be moving all over the place, either up and down, and pretty much every one of his predictions is a failure.  Litecoin just sits there with no changes to protocol or price doing absolutely nothing.  That guy's track record is abysmal.  He conjures up some Twilight Zone fantasy in his mind then thinks he can get the market to react to it.



Szabo just admitted the other day he wishes Eth would stay on PoW.  Presumably, the only reason he could say this is because he considers PoS implementations to be broken, yet that's what they're changing to.



Classic MatTheCat fail.  Looking at TA from half a year ago is completely useless because the fundamentals have now vastly changed.  Block size cutting in half is a fundamental.

You talk of 'manipulators'.

Prior to the break out at $435, which was also the breaking point of the last viable triangle based trendline, there was 17.5K BTC swaps on Bitfinex. During the rise, that total cratered to around 12K. That right there, is 5K of pure unadulterated buying pressure. I am off the opinion, that BTC has been driven up, because that is where the easy liquidity is to be gotten and now that 'they' have got all of the 'weak' shorts, Bitcoin will now correct....with the odd little cheeky pop up above $455 just to srping any Johnny come lately weak Short Stops (i.e. risking against the recent high), also being likely.

However, I am totally with you on the $350, $360, $390, $403, $412, thing. I have been keeping a close eye on it myself and along with that, and the line in the sand final resistance trendline at $435, which I did not think would be breached on this attempt, I have been looking for a breach of this level, followed by a support of either the trend support trend line, or the final resistance trendline which should now become support....

....thus I am looking to go long, but I aint buying up here. BTC will correct soon enough.

I don't feel like attempting to parse your post history in determining whether you are net long or short, and ultimately that is for you to determine.  I will attempt to take you on your word that you are not overly talking your book (even though we all may do such book talking to some degree).  Within my BTC investment funds, I have about 93.5% in BTC and 6.5% in fiat, and surely a bit of a drop could be o.k. for me, too... .. but I feel a lot better with upwards price movement.

To me, it seems a bit too narrow if you are overly focusing on technicalities... O.k... yeah, it is possible that we could experience various corrections that bring us within a less steep incline - and some of those kind of triangles will depend upon how far into history you are looking in order to figure the current trend or the overall trend and whether up or down is more likely based on trends or trends within trends.  

I kind of feel as if my own personal portfolio is prepared for either direction because I do not leverage nor bet large quantities of it at a time, yet the upward price pressure is beginning to seem more and more palpable.... I mean really, were you around the past several months (don't mean to be too argumentative, here), we had quite extensive attempts to get below $350, then attempts to get below $380 and then attempts to get below $400.. and after a while those attempts have been unsuccessful... with many of those downward attempts, after a while the only direction left (in order for the attempted manipulators to attempt to make a profit) is to go upwards rather than downwards.  Surely we could remain stuck in this sub $460 price arena for a few more months, but really, there seems to be a considerable amount of upwards price pressures, at the moment..


Regarding volume since August 2015, I agree that such volume shrunk after the new year (which was about 2 months after the $502 spike), and volume had been increasingly declining from about January until the past week or so.  

Possibly we are talking about trade volume in different ways, and there are various ways that you can frame it in order to make your points, but it is one thing to talk about volume in terms of the most recent uptick or to talk about it on a broader scale... Risto can speak for himself; however, I have the sense that Risto was referring to volume within the past couple of weeks rather than talking about volume since January (or even since November).. because mixing time frames does not seem to make a lot of sense in order to attempt to get logical coherence regarding looking at the most recent upward price pressures (which are really only a few weeks old, at most).

Regarding volume in the recent upsurge of the past 2-3 weeks, this most recent upsurge has been on low volume, and there may be some signs that it is picking up a little bit of steam in recent days - it's probably too early to determine where it is going, but the price increase of the past 2-3 weeks has been on relatively low steady volume (possibly slightly increasing and not shrinking volume).

Back just in time to watch 'inevitable' happen

I don't have any trades on at all at the moment, and am actually net long on Bitcoin.

I am looking for retrace and formation of confirmed bottom against either the support trendline that has been in play since Nov 2015, or one of the triangle resistance trendlines which was bust through, and should now prove itself as support.

P.S. Zoom out, look at the volume since the $500 pop, and tell me that it aint been decreasing, continually.

I believe that everything is exactly as you describe it, I'll follow the thread.

hehe. Risto coming back, masterluc showing up,... let's see how hard we can rally despite the bs stranglehold.