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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 21. (Read 907231 times)

legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign.

I don't ever recall price eking upwards, yet volume continually decreasing as being a 'bullish sign'. I honestly don't and can't think of any pro trader anywhere, who has ever said "rising price and decreasing volume is bullish".

One 'reason' that I could accept, would be that Miners aren't selling BTC into the market. They are hoarding, to dump at a later date, during/after the halving, when Bitcoin is as highly priced as the anticipated public mania can drive it.

First, you are ridiculous because you clearly mischaracterize both what was said and what is happening.

No one said volume is decreasing; however, volume is down was said.

Volume is staying somewhat down, but appears to be eking up a little bit... probably, volume could stay down, once bears stop selling coins and give up on their attempts to reverse the upward price trend.

Second, you are ridiculous because you seem to be talking your book and hoping that prices are going to go down.  You are betting against an apparent obvious trend in order to "hopefully" strike it rich if the trend were to reverse.  That is a very risky strategy because it's odds of ending in your favor seems to be in about the single digits... you are hoping for a savior bearwhale.. which is posslble, but not too likely.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign.

I don't ever recall price eking upwards, yet volume continually decreasing as being a 'bullish sign'. I honestly don't and can't think of any pro trader anywhere, who has ever said "rising price and decreasing volume is bullish".

One 'reason' that I could accept, would be that Miners aren't selling BTC into the market. They are hoarding, to dump at a later date, during/after the halving, when Bitcoin is as highly priced as the anticipated public mania can drive it.
newbie
Activity: 55
Merit: 0
Nice to see you back Risto hope you will keep up this thread the other wall observer has gone neurotic
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  Wink ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning  Grin

I appreciate a lot of your points, yet we gotta be careful when we attempt to put too much emphasis on TA and math... we are dealing with human behavior, manipulators and politics, too which sometimes falls outside of the predictability of mathematical formulas (until employing analysis after the events have already occurred).

hahahahahaha...

I recall fairly well the end of 2014, when there were all kinds of schoolings on ways to make money shorting bitcoin... it is a bit ridiculous, even though shorting did work pretty well throughout 2014.... but you are correct, by the time early 2015 came, it became more and more difficult to employ those shorting strategies and to make money on such strategies.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
It's a great moment to read a quality TA post from one of the best in the field. Welcome Back Risto. Wink

Can you feel it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25QyCxVkXwQ
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)

Lol SegNet

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-miners-and-industry-meet-in-beijing/
http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821

You can't be serious linking a "prohashing" post.  The guy thinks Ethereum isn't a crapcoin and is amazed the price is cratering and he's usually wrong on most other subjects too.

We have a 40 page thread of why Ethereum is conceptually and technically broken:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-ethereum-paradox-1361602

Nevertheless, he nailed a lot of problems he describes in this essay. And AFAIK Nick Szabo doesn't think that Ethereum is broken. I don't know, and I don't hold any ETHs.
I could also argue that Bitcoin is broken, and it is, if the actual situation (mining majority centralized behind the great firewall / development dominated by 1 company) will continue:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4fxiz1/segwit_changes_the_block_size_limit_no_consensus/
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)

Lol SegNet

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-miners-and-industry-meet-in-beijing/
http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821

You can't be serious linking a "prohashing" post.  The guy thinks Ethereum isn't a crapcoin and is amazed the price is cratering and he's usually wrong on most other subjects too.

We have a 40 page thread of why Ethereum is conceptually and technically broken:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-ethereum-paradox-1361602
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)

Lol SegNet

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-miners-and-industry-meet-in-beijing/
http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
It's a great moment to read a quality TA post from one of the best in the field. Welcome Back Risto. Wink
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 3080
On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  Wink ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning  Grin

On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.


I meant the price will rise from supply being dried up until some guy sitting on a bunch of coins thinks the market is overextended.  He will then sell in hopes of buying back cheaper, then the volume and volatility starts.  I didn't mean the guy wanted to dump for no reason.  Only a fool would want to sell and walk away right now.

We have had plenty of fools in the last years but the function of market is towards weeding them out. (A rare natural example of decreasing entropy in a system).

My overall philosophy on the signs of the rises:
(has to be taken in the context of investments with the parameters similar to cryptocoins)

Quick rise on high volume - GOOD - Brisk new demand and coins change hands

Quick rise on low volume - BAD - Most of the issue in few hands = overhang risk, liquidity risk, possible scam

Slow rise on high volume - BAD - If a high volume causes only slow rise, it is a toppish sign (unless just emerging from a bottom; then good)

Slow rise on low volume - GOOD - Supply drying up, possibility that the trading range will soon be contested leading to a massive revaluation
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.


I meant the price will rise from supply being dried up until some guy sitting on a bunch of coins thinks the market is overextended.  He will then sell in hopes of buying back cheaper, then the volume and volatility starts.  I didn't mean the guy wanted to dump for no reason.  Only a fool would want to sell and walk away right now.
legendary
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
Excellent post by Risto! It's starting to feel like old times  Cool
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Similar to what I said earlier today:

random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving

Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
Similar to what I said earlier today:

My commentary on current BTC volume:

It likely means miners stopped selling, so welcome to 90 days of enormous supply crunch.  The volume will be turned on when we reach a level where some random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving, which is not going to be below $500 by anyone's standards.  Then the long, drawn out game starts of people trying to sell high, buy lower, or short, with others trying to squeeze or lock out sellers and forcing them to buy back in.  Then we get the volatility that can do just about anything except go below the first double bottom after volume kicks in...another asymmetric trade.

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  Wink ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning  Grin
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
we can fuel the rocket without rpietila!!!

 Cheesy how many of the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme song (March-2013) featured stars are still active in the forums?

Yeah man I wish you were still keep this thread going I really enjoyed it.  So if it starts to run up again are you going to post more on here?


hahahahaha


He will post about martians, his dreams and various other at the moment off topics in order to bring us "quality TA"  or maybe, Monero, as an alternative "quality" topic?

 Wink
newbie
Activity: 55
Merit: 0
we can fuel the rocket without rpietila!!!

 Cheesy how many of the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme song (March-2013) featured stars are still active in the forums?

Yeah man I wish you were still keep this thread going I really enjoyed it.  So if it starts to run up again are you going to post more on here?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
we can fuel the rocket without rpietila!!!

 Cheesy how many of the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme song (March-2013) featured stars are still active in the forums?
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