Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 248. (Read 907212 times)

Its just risk management. It can only work alongside a sound strategy. just like in a game of chess.

very clever i'm glad you answered still.

I'd say it boils down to *when* is deterministic, I agree that the world is deterministic at the instant it is being observed, when the wave function collapses. Everything is determined. I think what is to come is probabilistic, and i think the probability of any given outcome tends to zero the farther into the future we project (the probability of everything being exactly the same tends towards 1 the less time into the future we look).

I don't think it matters if we can see the cat is dead or alive, we are only one set of eyes. Each moment that passes since we put it in the box, the wave function collapses, and if the cat dies as a result, then the universe knows at the instant it happens.


I can't do TA as such, I can draw a line on a chart and point out classic 'signs' but I'm not convinced that helps me or anyone. It's interesting to read though.

I'd say that if all outcomes are possible (though some are less probable) and provided you are cool with this (i.e. your position is such that something improbable is tolerable to you) then you are set. For me, the two unlikely scenarios are bust or to da moon. If it goes to zero, i have lost what I can afford. If it goes to da moon, then I get to buy a castle. If it does what is most likely then I don't win big, but neither do I lose big.

If your data pool is people on this forum, then yeah maybe 50/50. but the world outside still thinks that mt.gox broke the software lol (thats if they have heard of it at all)

Then it means we have bottomed  

Or it means you were really looking hard for an excuse as to why we might be reversing despite your arguments

I consistently saw negative articles while the price was being pushed down. I was searching "Bitcoin price" several times per day recently.

I don't see anything special with the timing. There are optimist and pessimist articles on google news every day about bitcoin. I don't think this one was specifically put at the top of google to engineer some new bull run.

But consider the timing and the publication source. It shows up at the first listing on Google when I search for "Bitcoin price" because I am trying to find out the current price. I am given the answer that it is going to 1 million. In the past days when I did that same search, I got very negative news articles at the top. As if someone is manipulating or cycling sentiment.

Maybe it is just my search foo or lack thereof. When I search "Bitcoin current price" then this is at top:

http://memeburn.com/2014/04/understanding-the-value-of-bitcoin-means-finding-the-right-balance/

Which bitcoin entrepreneur doesn't ?

True but perhaps you missed my TA point, which is near-term the equilibrium might be lower because selling is dominating. Since the point of TA is to time the low. But only the market knows with 100% certainty when the selling is exhausted.

It is in the interest of longs to run the price up a little, unload or pull their bids, so as to cycle it lower and lower in order to accumulate at lower and lower prices. They can only do this for as long as selling pressure is sufficient. It helps them greatly if the longs are united, i.e. if only the whales are accumulating.

I see someone wants newbies to rush in:

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/



Congratulations. Do you need a star on your forehead? Kindergarten is still in session.


That spin attack is a textbook insecurity complex. I can't find tantrums in this thread. Who is delusional?

I for one have put AnonyMint on ignore and continue to watch the thread for insightful discussion. Perhaps more of you should do the former too?

It's a pretty standard narcissistic cry for attention. It's entertaining to watch an individual with a completely delusional sense of self worth and entitlement throw these temper tantrums because swarms of inferiors do not celebrate his obvious genius.

Fear is a stronger driving force than greed.. Take a look at recently 2008  to 2010 charts for eurusd or even usdjpy equities commodities.. All had higher accumulating volume since smart money always buys into fear. I do not like high volume up thrusts.. means unloading usually.

Nah ill quote you.. Wasnt your last post weeks ago? How many last posts r u gonna do?

This thread used to be cool, informative and diverse (while mostly on topic).

Now I have to wade through books worth of AnonyMint posts I can't fathom to even skim, let alone read or even react to. Not to discredit what he says (I wouldn't know), but it's like listening to this type of girl that doesn't pause for long enough for you to jump in or her to even take a breath. You're in constant fear she might suffocate.

Take a deep breath, man... maybe go on vacation with no net connectivity or something.

On the premise that light humor is no detriment to quality, a link.

Introduction to Chart Patterns

Did Rob Booker introduce the Batman's head pattern?

My terminal comments on shorting and moral aspects of trading:
(I do try, in my own way, not to comment on things tangential to price action in this thread - and I should be writing code instead -
but it is so, so hard when the topics cut so close to the quick.)

Asymmetry and squeezes are the typical practical problems with shorting.

My delicacy about shorting might be considered more self-interested than moral, however:  
Criminal manipulators (i.e. persons willfully committing common law torts and property crimes in order to effect price movements)
and large scale embezzlers are enemies to me, and to anyone whose interests are aligned with bitcoin on a medium-long term basis.  
It is not in my interest that they prosper in their endeavours.  
Shorting on momentum compounds their profits -- even if I manage to front-run them, I add to momentum ignition.
Thus, regardless of apparent short term benefits, I expect the long-run effect to be deleterious.
Thus I short bitcoin only cautiously, intentionally decoupling from criminal conspiracies.

In my opinion self-destructive behaviour is its own reward -- and that is very much how natural moral law works.

People often learn to dislike the expression of moral views by having alien moralities imposed upon them.  
At least, this is an explanation which makes sense to me. I certainly do not appreciate having alien moralities imposed upon me.  \
Still, and although this is not the right place for it, it is usefully stimulating to discuss the moral dimensions of life,
and I would generally rebel against peer-pressure demanding self-censorship in defense of some pathological reaction-formation.

Fact remains: This is not the place for it.  And for that I apologize.

Risto let chessnut's post serve as a lesson to you what genre of flies are attracted to permabull honey.

Keep your facts factual and you won't have this problem. Your first mistake was to preach an unjustified (arbitrary) curve fit as gospel. Now you reap what you sowed.

Over and out.

red herring.

you sold high because you saw that china man coming to market. you are not providing any service to him that the person you sold to could not have done better.

Are we supposed to hold the hand of the Chinese and remove all risk. Do you know what happens when you remove all risk? Then there is no valuation convergence on truth. And everyone starves to death. That experiment has been tried, it is called Communism.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/30/even-cuba-abandons-communism-when-will-we/

I seem to regularly piss off socialist lunatics as Gandhi did.

Past 30 days (click 30-day chart), the largest volume days are the down days. Also only 8 up days (1 neutral) out of 30.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD.html

This might indicate selling pressure is greater than buying.