Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 245. (Read 907212 times)

I might believe that we continue to follow the trend line for a while longer if there is a rally this year beyond 2-3000 USD, but even then, not for years. I have sufficient faith to be holding right now, so I do believe that the current price point is good. I actually increased my amount of bitcoins by 35% by buying last week around 435 USD.
I think bitcoin could hold on the exponential trend line for some 5 years if it was alone using its own technology. Since it is open-source and due to my concerns expressed in my previous post, I think a huge number of big, powerful entities will launch their own crypto and greatly spread and dilute the crypto market cap. I just don't see why bitcoin would be holding the vast majority of the crypto technology market cap going forward. I have not been explained with enough arguments why that would happen.

That I can easily agree with. As one who bought after the great run up and then down, there was nothing left but upside, and it has transformed my life. (Never ascribe "unfortunate" with buying in 2011 as at the very worst, people would be sitting on 15x gains in 3 years after buying at the very top. You can only lose with Bitcoin if you sell.)



This is like arguing whether God exists. Nobody under any circumstances can disprove it, so it is possible, and people who deny it risk getting burned. By having bitcoins, you risk getting incredibly wealthy.



I think it is prudent to disclose that at these prices my business, cash, precious metals and RE holdings' combined value almost equals that of my bitcoins. I am in no way overextended, am totally debt-free, and will in no foreseeable case sell any bitcoins unless at 2,000 or more a piece. All my scheduled castle projects and upkeep is accounted for until 2015. So no need to talk to my book, even if coin goes to 200, the construction won't stop, I will just buy more bitcoins on the side.



Is your mouth bitter, brother? Have you no idea how difficult it is to hold the bitcoins? There are no lucky decisions. Buying is the rational decision, and selling (out) is the unlucky one.

Why should we listen to you in the first place? Despite your knowledge, you missed out the minimum 10x gains from last year. Aren't I more correct? It seems that no matter whether I am a bull or bear, now I am doing it wrong. Also the long-time trend is not disproven when the low end of the channel is hit. It just screams "buy!!". There is also a high end, meaning "sell!!".



The exponential trendline remains valid until Bitcoin has reached 50% of its eventual adoption. In my understanding, the eventual adoption is more than 2x current adoption (potential of 500x-5000x), and therefore the trendline is current for at least this year, and maybe up to 2015, 2016, 2017.

I have never even published the amazingness of the trendline in how it showed the buy point after the 2011 crash. SlipperySlope's model with price data only from the exchange period could not capture it. Then the similar buy signal came after 2013 and also is flashing now. If we go up without ever seeing 400, will you finally believe me?

For Bitcoin to act as a universal savings medium, it will have to replace many current paper instruments like government debt, whose market cap is in 10s of trillions. By simple math, one bitcoin will cost $1M+. If the offchain services make money supply effectively flexible, then there is a possibility that it will have the same value as gold (300,000/BTC). And of course it can fail, and have a value of a few 1,000s or 10,000s.

I don't see why bitcoin would absorb the whole value of the economy "it" supports in its market cap. The main reason that I see is altcoins like AnonyMint mentions. The situation is that the infrastructure that is being built around bitcoin requires very little update to start accepting an altcoin. I don't think an altcoin would offer an order of magnitude improvement over bitcoin (unless AnonyMint convinces me otherwise), but it might offer some forms of specialisations and localisations that we probably didn't think about yet.
When the regulations are made thanks to bitcoin opening the way, the path will be wide open for all kinds of entities to launch their own crypto-currency. Local or national governments, big companies, and many other big and small entities.
Let's give an exemple : reward points from retail chains. Instead of giving reward points, why not to give some units of that new WallMart crypto currency ? You can then use it to pay your future purchases - or trade it on an exchange that accepts WallMart crypto.
Now if WallMart can create a crypto-currency with its own branding and specificities that are aiming at improving the shopping experience of its customers, why would it use bitcoin instead of its own ? I just don't see the logic there.
It is likely that the services and infrastructure that are now being built around bitcoin, will end up accepting all crypto-currencies once there is an exchange that does and that can link to that service/infrastructure. Updating them for that will be trivial.

If an entity is able to draw a crowd to use its own crypto, giving value to its own crypto, that crypto will be traded against bitcoin and then what is the incentive of an entity who has such capacity to choose bitcoin ? Someone please explain.

It doesn't mean that bitcoin would be dropped and die, it could stay at the top and remain the main unit of exchange of the whole crypto world. Or not.

Yes, Mark Twain told a story about a cat that got burned when it walked on a hot stove. After that, the cat would never walk on the stove even if it was cold. The point is that sometimes we overlearn our lesson. It remains to be seen which one of us has done that.

There is a real albeit improbable risk that this could be more like 2011 than 2013.

Because of the various and specialized senses of the term "value" I think it is helpfully clarifying to say instead that you consider btc to be overbought in the near term.  In this way I hope to avoid confusion between distinct concepts with differing relationships to price.

Regarding a 1.000.000 usd exponential trend price in 2017, I think our intuitions are a poor guide, having been trained in radically different domains.  In the past people, notably including Risto, have rationalized the possibilty of such valuations in terms of supplies and the subsumption of pre-existing value into the value of bitcoin.  But what if we instead consider marginal flows, and admit the possibility that bitcoin may create novel economic value - value the magnitude of which we can not presently estimate and therefore can not rationally limit or circumscribe.

Bitcoin ETP would trade against perhaps as much as 1 mm btc of float.  The market cap of a single exchange traded company may range as high as 1 tn usd.  Btc represents not just a single company but an entire economy.  1 marginal dollar of moneyflow can easily move price enough to result in 10 additional dollars of market cap.   If ETPs on 1 mm float were to attract 1 tn in investor funds ( and there exist single investors each capable of investing about that much, such as Norway and PIMCO), which resulted in a market cap float of 10 tn,  then each bitcoin would be trading for 10 mm usd.

The scenario is perhaps unlikely, but it is entirely conceivable and I know of no credible or principled way to rule it out.  I could rationalize an additional factor of 10 if pressed -- after all, you can never have too much overkill.

If btc is replaced by another crypto, whatever value would have accrued in btc will just accrue in newcoin instead - even more , in as much as newcoin will only be able to displace btc by offering  an order of magnitude improvement in utility.

In the collapse of the April 2013 bubble I felt strongly that the retracement would be deeper than it turned out to be, based upon the notion that the April 2013 bubble would be similar in shape to the great 2011 bubble. I felt very bad having fiat in my trading account when prices went up and I had to buy back higher. I resolved to never make that mistake again. Which made me pull all coin out of MtGox well in advance of their subsequent troubles.

Better to be in bitcoin and watch prices go down, than to be in cash and watch prices go up - my experience.

Fuck no! I sold almost all the BTC in my trading account to buy back lower. It's a hedge for me because the vast majority of my holdings are in cold storage. It's like buying life insurance. I'm making a bet I hope I lose. I will seriously consider selling other assets only if the price gets stupid low.

The probability of such price in 2017 is very low in my opinion. This model, or rather the belief that it still has predictive interest, will not hold much longer.
I am a medium-term bull on bitcoin but this is way too much. I don't say it has 0 probability of happening, but even if we factor the hyperinflation risks, probability remains very low to see a market cap in the 11 trillions USD in three years, imho.

I have a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that suggests an expected price of $840,503 on July 1, 2017, if we stay on that trend line. Close enough?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

Well yes. The stuff I sold I do not need. I strongly believe that 2014 is the last year in which one may easily buy bitcoin for under $1000. Additionally, because I think bitcoin goes to 1 million USD in 2018, I simply add three zeros onto the coins' purchase price and imagine what that would buy only four years from now, e.g. a car in 2018 for a $40 today. Ha.

I agree with the fact that we are probably not going to continue following the exponential trendline that Risto is using as a basis for his TA. The question is : how long will we have to remain under the trendline for the recognition that, although is was a good model for the first phase of bitcoin rise, it is not for the next phase that is starting.

Anyway one has to recognise that the past exponential trend line MUST be broken sooner or later. The questions is only if it is broken this year (which I believe), the year after that, or the next. What would be the price of BTC in April 2017 if we would stay on the trend line ?  

Wow. You are actually selling shit to acquire more bitcoin?

I understand that when you said "I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall" you mean that you sold ordinary belongings for fiat and used that cash to buy bitcoin. Right?

If so, then I have done something similar by selling an old gold bracelet for cash, then putting that cash into my local Robocoin ATM to buy bitcoin. I have been looking around the house for stuff I do not need anymore, but given my household's frugal lifestyle, there is not much left to sell. By agreement with my still skeptical wife, my bitcoin cold wallet and hot wallet are separate from our substantial retirement savings and real estate portfolio - so can't touch the latter.

I agree that btc is undervalued in the long term, but short term (until April 15) I think it is overvalued. My analysis is subject to change of course if conditions change.

You know, buying and HODL'ing good is good enough for me,
good enough for me and my Bobby McGee.

I am not objecting to taking short positions generally.  I caution people against taking what I see as the riskier side. If your goal is to trade into a larger position because you think btc is undervalued it makes more sense to short something which is patently overvalued.

If $400 falls, it becomes a ceiling instead of a floor. I sold almost everything I have to defend that wall and it may not hold. If it breeches, we may not see another ATH this year. The good news is we'll have weeks if not longer to pick up $300 coins. Plenty of time to have a garage sale and move back in with Mom and Dad.

It's people covering shorts that will save us if the $400 wall is breached. Profitably shorting bitcoin helps reduce volatility.

Zerocash (the improvement on Zerocoin) for one where even the payer, payee, and amount of every transaction is blinded on the block chain (the entire block chain is a fog) which is to be announced with great fanfare at Oakland crypto conference May 18. My guess is the open source code is likely not be production ready then.

However, I don't like Zerocash for these reasons:


I've seen another design which has similar anonymity on the block chain which doesn't have the above weaknesses. It might even already be implemented (studying the code as we speak).

I am not encouraging anyone to think the BTC price is going much lower. That is not my point.

For me the sign that something was out-of-whack on the expectations was when I saw Goats making plans to run the world. I realized reality had been transformed into fantasy. I don't say that to ridicule anyone, but really I don't believe radical change can come from a small group of masterminds who don't actually program daily. The future is really high tech driven. The future is not just about ideas, but also and perhaps mostly importantly about many minute technical details and implementation.

Agreed