Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 244. (Read 907248 times)

rpietila looks like we're somewhere in the realm you described little while back.

~$400 and ppl still looking to double their coins and expecting ~$200

I don't find Litecoin higher trading volume a very convincing argument in it's favour. Such a large proportion of the overall supply being traded is indicating just how speculative the value proposition is, especially for a network that has real utility and acceptance that is so many times lower than bitcoin. Don't get me started on the spurious design differences. A competitive altcoin design is possible, but I don't believe litecoin is it.

thats true. there seem to be some misconception in those charts. nothing fanatic about, pure logic fallacy tho. but thats why we mostly use charts: to legitimate our BS uh?! ^^

cant handle the truth so lets ban it ? Banning things will make people insist, especially if you don't prove your point, it is a reverse psychology , but never mind, a debate becomes impossible when the involved parties take the fanatic path, I  cant see what are the benefits from sharing our point of views here when you have the privileges to ban anything you don't like/agree with instead of debating the possibility of it being wrong with some common sense.

therefore, I ban my self from posting in this thread, no hard feelings

Regarding the altcoin article: The underlying premise of liquidity is ok, but the altcoins are already dead in terms of marketcap. Their market cap is so tiny that it's not even funny - with the exception of Litecoin. So it is already factored into their price, it's not some kind of revelation.

Another issue is that he supposes all altcoins will act in the same liquid way and that they are competing in the same "there can be only one" space. An anonymous coin for example does not "go" in the same category for it serves a different purpose that the transparent coins cannot handle.

When you have an anonymous coin, the monopoly of the transparent market is broken and a new option is presented to the people on how to conduct their payments. Do you want to pay with your visa (so that the government can see what you bought) or use cash? So there are two different needs, covered by two different types of coins.

Supposing a 10bn BTC market cap, if just 1% of the transparent market chooses the emerging option of anonymity => that could translate to 100mn market cap. There is serious potential there. Will Bitcoin cover the anonymity/privacy needs of its user base? Nope because they want government approval. And the government needs Bitcoin's cooperation to tax the hell out of owners.

If the government requests, say, 30% of capital gains, then by the very mechanism of taxation, people will need to liquidate their BTCs to pay the government. So they create a destructive loop for the price of BTC where people need to cash it all the time, pressuring the price downwards. They can't do that with an anonymous coin that they can't control.

This chart is banned from my thread from now on.


I have to say that I:
a) Don't believe for a second that LTC volume is that high, 179kBTC per day vs. 22kBTC of BTC
b) Believe that if LTC is traded against BTC, the volume should count towards both of the currencies and not LTC alone because it is smaller (especially because in your chart it is BIGGER in which case BTC should receive all the volume  )

Great. I agree with your point that Litecoin trading volume is surprisingly high.

Interesting that by far the largest bubble on the current chart shows the LTC/CNY pair from OKCoin, but there is no data reported for the BTC/CNY pair. In contrast, BTC China shows over twice as much volume for the BTC/CNY pair than for the LTC/CNY pair.

the data is refreshed every 5-15 minutes, taken from these exchanges http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/markets/info  (huobi is not listed yet)

you can check the data daily if you want here http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/graphicalComparison

Free market speaks for it self, people vote (invest) for what suites their needs, it could be innovation, or experimenting or making quick profit or helping a cause or just getting tricked and being scammed thinking they are doing one of the previous things, but surely I dont 100% agree with this article for many obvious reasons.

 also it seems a bit strange that a silver vault owner would be against alts (the classic Gold, silver and diamond debate), therefore not all alts are pump and dump schemes which I thought it was obvious, some Alts exist for for the same reason Bitcoin existed in the first place which is experimenting and many people here forget that, don't ignore the fact that we are still Beta and everything could fail.


I dont mind Alts at all, but I get annoyed of the Scams going around ( which makes me think again, any greedy deserve to learn the hard way) once you get afraid of one Alt it means it is the time to invest into it, because why should it scare you? in a free market an alt that is shitty or a scam would die in a matter of months if not weeks and we've seen that in the past couple of years so....I try to look every now and then to see if there is any interesting alts.

therefore, I would rephrase: "because there is so many scam coins out there, that were created just to pump and dump and will die quickly, I think it is safer to invest into Bitcoin as a safe option"

the only two coins that I would consider at the moment are Bitcoin, Litecoin.... look at other alts, their market cap and volume is so tiny that you cant see the name of the bubble at all.

Although I accept the arguments made against the altcoin industry, I am a participant in it by way of leasing 3 GPU mining rigs that are currently configured for the Litecoin-compatible Scrypt algorithm. The term of each lease is 72 hours and I get paid in bitcoin. I set the lease prices low enough to keep the rigs continually leased, and they remain slightly more profitable than using a multipool that automatically mines the most profitable altcoin and automatically sells the proceeds on an altcoin exchange for payment to me in bitcoin.
 

A little biased, but the basic point is valid.  Network effect is extremely hard to overcome.

Do you use store credit cards or VISA?  Why?  Do most stores even HAVE a credit card anymore that ISN'T VISA?  Why not?

I am with this author in that altcoins are pump & dump scams and you should not buy them.

Only TA experts expecting the downfall of bitcoin would have a neutral position, because you would have to pay a whole lot of money to experts, who are currently not involved, but see a bright future for bitcoin, so that they stay out of bitcoin. Therefore the concensus of "neutral" experts would be not so neutral at all, but rather too negative.

To  objectively analyse this market, I think we need some TA experts who are not involved in Bitcoin at all but understand the concept of this innovation, and we need them to do pure analyses without getting emotional (for or against) in other words.

Because I find it hard my self, when you get involved you get attached to your investment and the whole idea, and no matter how you try to be objective, your conscious tends to always influence your decisions.

You can also use this tool to help if you are not good with excel: http://bitcoinsavingsplan.com/

Thanks! Off to do my homework...

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sss-a-sane-and-simple-bitcoin-savings-plan-345065

rpietila, thanks for your insigitful comments.

Newbie (=posibly very dumb) question: When you say "invest that according to the trendline/SSS and never sell at a loss", which trendline are you referring to? What is SSS?

If we draw the line in -0.3 log units (which equals to being at <50% of the trendline price), last time we were this low 14 days.

This time we have spent this low 7 days.

In the late 2012 we were much lower though, so you always have to be prepared for all scenarios. For me, the scenarios that I prepare for are:

- 400 not breached, stabilization, and next bubble this summer
- going lower, damage of sentiment, and takes longer to get back to the uptrend
- Bitcoin is doomed.

It is just that the first is clearly the most probable imo, and the last is not very probable.

The trendline model tells when it is expensive and when it is cheap. It is too long-term model to forecast if Bitcoin is doomed. That is the reason you should only invest what you can lose, and invest that according to the trendline/SSS and never sell at a loss, rather lose it all if the Internet and crypto are destroyed. (Imagine how rich that guy would be who sold to me his bitcoins in 2011 to get the feeling.)